The 2010 Detroit Tigers are an odd blend of veterans and rookies. Plenty of young players will get their chance in the spotlight this year. Here are some of the more notable rookies that the Twins will need to keep their eyes on this season:
Austin Jackson, CF, 23 years old
Jackson was the key part of the trade that sent Curtis Granderson to the New York Yankees this offseason. Although he hasn’t garnered any major-league experience yet, he should receive significant time in center field for the Tigers in 2010. He may even be their primary lead-off hitter.
Originally an 8th-round selection of the Yankees in the 2005 draft, Jackson began his career as an 18-year old in the GCL. He hit .304/.374/.405 in forty games. Jackson spent 2006 in the Sally league, where he hit .260/.340/.346 while striking out 151 times. He did steal 37 bases, but his lack of power and patience was concerning.
The next year, 2007, saw an improved walk rate and a .120-point jump in slugging percentage. Tallying 13 home runs across three levels, Jackson stole 33 bases and raised his on-base percentage to an impressive .370. He showed the promise of a lead-off hitter with some pop in his bat.
Jackson spent the entirety of 2008 in Double-A, where he regressed in just about every area. Spending last season in Triple-A, Jackson hit .300/.354/.405 with a horrible strikeout rate.
Although he isn’t an “elite” prospect, Jackson still provides excellent athleticism, above-average arm strength, and great defensive ability at a key position. His PECOTA projection for 2010 is .271/.332/.411 with 18 stolen bases and lots of strikeouts. Sort of like Carlos Gomez, except with the ability to make contact at an acceptable clip.
The Twins should be aware that a lot of their hits to the gap this season will be caught by Jackson, who was recruited by Georgia Tech as a point guard. For Minnesota pitchers, though, retiring Jackson should require little more than painting the corners and hoping Jackson’s trigger-happy swing fails to make contact.
Due to Jackson’s speed, though, if the ball is put in play, all bets are off.
Scott Sizemore, 2B, 25 years old
Sizemore was drafted as a second baseman in the 5th round of the 2006 draft, and has steadily advanced through Detroit’s system. Coming out of Virginia Commonwealth University, Sizemore spend his first season in professional baseball in Low-A. He hit an impressive line of .327/.394/.435 in 70 games, and displayed a solid understanding of the strike zone.
Spending 2007 in the Midwest League, Sizemore hit .265/.376/.390 with 16 stolen bases and more walks than strikeouts. Sizemore was in the very pitcher-friendly Florida State League in 2008, and spent last year in both Double-A and Triple-A.
Throughout his minor-league career, Sizemore has accrued a line of .296/.383/.441 with a bunch of stolen bases and great strike-zone judgment. He is the leading candidate to replace Placido Polanco at second base this season, and will likely hit near the bottom of Detroit’s order.
Sizemore’s PECOTA projection for 2010 is .264/.345/.410. Better things have certainly emerged from the Tiger’s minor league system, but Sizemore is very polished and looks ready to begin a solid major-league career.
Daniel Schlereth, LHP, 23 years old
Part of the deal that sent Edwin Jackson to Arizona, Schlereth was drafted 26th overall in the 2008 draft, and dominated both the Pioneer and Midwest Leagues in his first season. This great relief pitching continued last season, where Schlereth pitched in both Double- and Triple-A, combining for an ERA of 0.98 through 27.2 innings.
Reaching the big leagues in 2009, Schlereth posted an excellent strikeout per nine innings number of 10.8, though he walked more than the Diamondbacks would have liked. His ERA of 5.89 in just over 18 innings left much to be desired, but there is little doubt that Schereth has the makings of a future All-Star closer.
According to Baseball America, Schlereth possesses a “93-96 mph fastball with riding life,” a “hard 82-84 mph curveball,” and “a changeup that dives and floats.” He will certainly be featured out of the Tiger’s bullpen in 2010, and could take over the 9th inning role very soon.
Alex Avila, C, 23 years old
Avila probably won’t receive significant playing time this season, as he will serve as Gerald Laird’s backup behind the plate. The young University of Alabama graduate has his sights set on the 2011 starting job, though, and he merits the Twins’ attention.
As a 21-year old in 2008, Avila hit .305/.383/.385 in 58 games in the Midwest League. Some semblance of power emerged last season, where Avila hit .264/.365/.450 with 12 home runs and a 52/77 walk-to-strikeout ratio.
His PECOTA projection for 2010 is .253/.339/.405 with 9 home runs, but I tend to think of this as very conservative. Avila should develop into a legitimate power threat with above-average defense from the catcher position.
Wilkin Ramirez, OF, 24 years old
Ramirez received some playing time in Detroit this past season — (hitting .364/.385/.818 in 15 games) — but likely won’t be on the Opening Day 25-man roster. He will spend another season in Triple-A Toledo working on his patience (or lack thereof), but could be a late-season call-up.
Originally signed by the Tigers out of the Dominican Republic in 2003, Ramirez played in 54 games in 2003 before going down with a shoulder injury that cost him all of 2004. He re-set in 2005 in West Michigan, where he hit .262/.317/.410 and a 35/143 walk-to-strikeout ratio.
That obscene strikeout total hasn’t left Ramirez in his six seasons of professional ball, and will certainly pose a problem at the major-league level. With these strikeouts, though, comes a very healthy power stroke. Ramirez has averaged just over 20 home runs per 162 games, and could supply the Tigers with a late-inning power threat this season.
The Kansas City Royals have one excellent starting pitcher, a very solid first baseman, and a lights-out closer. That’s about it.
Maybe that’s not entirely fair. The Royals could have a fairly strong starting rotation, and David DeJesus could be an adequate No. 2 hitter. Outside of those aspects, though, the Royals will need a lot of help if they envision competing in 2010.
Judging from their minor-league organization, that help isn’t going to come from within. The Royals have their fair share of top prospects, but almost every one of them is stuck is the lower levels. Here are a few players who could contribute to the Big League squad in 2010:
Jeff Bianchi, SS, 23 years old
Originally a second-round pick of the Royals back in 2005, Bianchi has slowly but surely advanced through the Kansas City organization. His first two years, 2005 and 2006, were spent with the short-season Arizona League Royals. Although he was drafted out of high school, Bianchi looked very advanced for that league and averaged an OPS of 1.216. He played in just 40 games, but Bianchi’s future looked bright.
Bianchi’s first full-season, in 2007, saw a noticeable dip in production. With the Burlington Bees (in the same league as the Beloit Snappers), Bianchi saw his OPS drop to .611 while his power went out the window and his strikeout rate dramatically increased (or rather, his walk rate decreased.)
He spent 2008 in a High-A league, where his power increased but his strikeout rate worsened. Bianchi started last season once again in High-A, but after a quick start was quickly promoted to Double-A, where he hit an impressive .315/.356/.441 while taking more walks.
There’s some concern over whether Bianchi has the defensive mobility required to remain a shortstop, and he could find himself at second base as soon as this year. This should be very motivating for Bianchi, as Kansas City has two good second basemen in Alberto Callaspo and Chris Getz, both of whom are higher on the totem pole.
At shortstop, the Royals are sending out Yuniesky Betancourt, who makes for a much easier target. Bianchi should start 2010 in Triple-A, but if Betancourt struggles or a middle infielder gets injured, the 23-year old prospect could get a promotion.
Twins’ pitchers will need to recognize that Bianchi doesn’t walk much at all, though his power isn’t overly impressive, either. Bianchi will hit for good average and make contact with a lot of pitches.
Kila Ka’aihue, 1B, 25 years old
Ka’aihua was given some playing time at first base and designated hitter in 2008, but the presence of Butler gives him a very difficult obstacle. The Royals’ designated hitter situation (read: mess. Jose Guillen? Really?) gives Ka’aihua a decent chance to make the big league club in 2010.
Ka’aihue’s main weapon is his power. A full season was spent in Triple-A last year, where Ka’aihue hit .252/.392/.433 with 17 home runs and a wOBA of .368. With poor defense, a high strikeout rate, and no speed to speak of, Ka’aihua is a prototype designated hitter.
The 25-year-old has eight years of professional ball under his belt, and his walk rate is very high. PECOTA projects him to hit .244/.361/.429 with 18 home runs and 69 BB/86 K in 2010.
Minnesota pitchers will need to watch out for this slugging Hawaiian coming off the bench late in the game. Ka’aihue could also hit from the designated hitter position, and is very capable of going yard in just about every at-bat. With Soria closing out most tight games for the Royals, their ability to erase a Ka’aihue-induced deficit will be slim.
David Lough, OF, 24 years old
Very few people gave much thought to David Lough, an outfielder drafted out of Mercyhurst College. But an extremely strong 2009 campaign between High-A and Double-A has caught the attention of the Royals.
Drafted out of college in 2007, Lough went directly to the Appalachian League and hit well in small sample size. 2008 was spent in the Midwest League, where Lough hit .268/.329/.455 with 16 home runs and plenty of doubles and triples. The power was there to some extent, and Lough was holding his own on the base paths, but he wasn’t getting on base at a good clip.
Because of the power he showed in 2008, Lough began 2009 in High-A Wilmington, where he exploded for a line of .320/.370/.473. When he was promoted to Double-A Northwest Arkansas mid-season, Lough brought his final 2009 line to .325/.370/.496. This is certainly earn him a promotion to Triple-A in 2010, and he will likely receive some playing time in the major-leagues. He will probably be used primarily as a 4th outfielder because of his limited defensive range and lack of “corner outfield” power.
The Twins should think of Lough as a version of their Rene Tosoni: A left-handed oufielder with “tweener” power and an almost total inability to hit left-handed pitching. Both could certainly contribute to their respective big-league clubs, but are by no means “elite” prospects.
Jordan Parraz, OF, 25 years old
This former 3rd-round pick has flown under the radar in his six years of professional baseball. Drafted by Houston out of the CC of Southern Nevada (where uber-prep talent and the supposed “second-coming of Babe Ruth, Willie Mays, and Johnny Bench,” Bryce Harper is playing), Parraz was a Rule V pick of the Royals in 2008.
Before last year, Parraz posted decent batting averages while showing modest on-base and slugging percentages. Once with the Royals, though, Parraz hit his stride. Starting the 2009 season in Double-A, Parraz was promoted to Triple-A to end the year. Combined, Parraz hit .348/.432/.541 in 81 games. A hamstring injury kept him from playing the entire year.
Parraz has great strike-zone judgment, and his high wake rate drives up his value. He could also get a look in the Kansas City outfield in 2010. PECOTA’s 50th percentile projection for Parraz in 2010 is .266/.337/.397, a decent enough bench bat.
Others to look for: Corey Aldridge, OF, 30 years old; Irving Falu, 2B/SS/OF, 27 years old; John Suomi, C/OF, 29 years old; Cody Clark, C, 28 years old; Ed Lucas, 3B, 27 years old
The Twins’ scouting department had a down year in 2003, drafting just three players who eventually reached the Big Leagues. Of those three, just Scott Baker is putting together a solid career. Here are the more notable picks in the 2003 draft.
1st Round (21st overall) – Matthew Moses, 3B
Never known as an elite defensive player, the Twins knew that Moses’ bat would carry him to the major leagues, where he would hopefully take over at third base. Minnesota hadn’t enjoyed a consistent third baseman since Corey Koskie left, and they felt that Moses could eventually compete for the job. Outside of his bat, Moses was a very average player.
He wasn’t the best defensively, was a poor base-runner, and didn’t have the strongest arm. In his first 18 games in the Gulf Coast League, though, Moses managed to hit .385/.417/.492. A physical in 2003 revealed that Moses had a small hole in his heart that a 20-minute operation fixed.
Whether or not this had anything to do with his decline can’t be known for sure, but in 2004 Moses hit .223/.304/.366 in Quad Cities (Low A). In half a season in Fort Myers in 2005 Moses hit .306/.376/.453, but as soon as he was promoted to New Britain he fell apart again.
Moses spent the entire 2006 season with the Rock Cats, where he hit .249/.303/.386. He bounced between New Britain and Rochester in 2007, but returned to the Rock Cats in 2008. Last year was again spent with the Rock Cats, where Moses hit .224/.274/.353. Sadly, Moses has been awarded the “bust” label, and there is little hope that he will ever develop into what the Twins envisioned.
2nd Round (58th overall) – Scott Baker, RHP
The one saving grace of the 2003 draft, Baker flew through the minor leagues. Just over a year after he was drafted, in 2004, Baker was mowing down batters in Triple-A Rochester. In 2005 he reached the Twins and posted a 3.35 ERA in just over 50 innings. From that point forward, Baker has enjoyed a very successful major-league career.
This year, Baker is considered Minnesota’s ace, though he would be a solid No. 2 or No. 3 starting pitcher most other places. Over the course of his career, Baker has amassed an ERA of 4.27 in 653 innings and 6.9 strikeouts per nine innings.
4th Round (118th overall) – David Shinskie, RHP
Shinskie was selected out of Mt. Carmel High School in the fourth round in 2003, despite having received football scholarship offers from BSC schools. He stumbled around the minor leagues for about six years before retiring his glove and attempting to re-start his football career last year.
At 25-years old, Shinskie received a scholarship from Boston College and an offer to compete for their quarterback position. Shinksie was a four-year starter at quarterback at Mr. Carmel High School, and he won two state championships. In 2009, Shinskie threw for 2,049 yards and 15 touchdowns as he led the Eagles to an 8-4 record. They lost to USC in the Emerald Bowl.
14th Round (418th overall) – Levale Speigner, RHP
This pick is probably only notable because after Washington stole Speigner from us in the 2006 Rule V draft he went on to shut us down in 2007. Against Johan Santana on June 9, 2007, Speigner went six innings giving up just one run on two hits. He compiled a season ERA of 8.78, but he dominated the team he was drafted by.
(Note – as the 2004 draft involves several players who are still progressing through the Minnesota organization, I will stop my draft evaluation series here. But be sure to stick around here throughout the season for all the Twins’ content you can handle!)
A recap of the premiere episode of MVB LIVE from last night. Thanks to everyone for stopping by and congratulations to Amy for answering the trivia question and winning two tickets to Target Field.
Unlike many small-market teams, the Minnesota Twins aren’t afraid to draft high school players early. Despite the uncertainty and signability risk high schoolers present, Mike Radcliff and his elite scouting team drafted prep stars with four of their first five picks in the 2002 Amateur Draft.
The first round pick has panned out very nicely for the Twins, while the last high school player selected (Adam Lind) didn’t sign. (The other two prep picks – Mark Sauls and Alex Merrick – didn’t exactly pan out.) All in all, though, the Twins found several top talents in the 2002 MLB Draft.
Here is a breakdown of some of the notable picks.
1st Round (20th overall) – Denard Span, OF
(Note – Alex Halsted has an excellent article on Denard Span in the Twins’ 2010 Annual. If you haven’t already, be sure to purchase this publication. It’s well worth the read.)
As soon as Span was drafted, he was given the title of “Torii Hunter’s Replacement.” Years later, this is coming to fruition. Hunter has packed his bags and left for greener pastures (and heftier paychecks) and Span will be the Opening Day center fielder in 2010.
Span signed late in 2002, and started his professional career as a 19-year old in the Appy League in 2003. Getting himself adjusted to wood bats, Span hit .271/.355/.319 in just over 200 at-bats. 2004 was spent between the GCL and Quad Cities, where Span combined to hit .273/.370/.320. He was getting on base at a good clip but hadn’t shown any form of power.
At 21 years of age, Span spent 2004 between Fort Myers and New Britain. Surprisingly, Span enjoyed his greatest offensive production while in the Florida State League, which usually features elite pitching. In 2004 Span hit a combined .307/.377/.369.
The entire 2006 season was spent with the Double-A Rock Cats, and Span managed to break a career high on home runs per season, with two. The next two years were spent with Rochester, and included a heart-wrenching Spring Training snub that almost made Span quit baseball.
Span was given his first regular at-bats in the major leagues in 2008, where he finished 6th in Rookie of the Year voting after hitting .294/.387/.432 with six home runs. Last year was Span’s first full season in the major-leagues, and he hit a very impressive .311/.392/.415 with eight long balls, and 23 stolen bases.
About to turn 26, Span is an above-average offensive specimen who provides average defense in the outfield. In 2010, he will be cast as the Opening Day center fielder for the Minnesota Twins, and we are all looking forward to seeing how his second full season in the Bigs turns out.
2nd Round (61st overall) – Jesse Crain, RHP
Crain signed sooner than Span after he was drafted, and threw some relief appearances for both the Elizabethton Twins and Quad Cities River Bandits in 2002. He looked very impressive, posting a sub-1.00 ERA and a sub-0.800 WHIP while striking out 9.4 per nine innings of pitching. Crain’s first year had “small sample size” written all over it, but the Twins were confident in their young righty.
Displaying his excellent fastball and deadly slider, Crain spent 2003 advancing between High-A, Double-A, and Triple-A. Over the course of the season Crain once again managed to post a 1.93 ERA with a very high 12.2 strikeouts per nine innings.
Even though Crain had garnered experience at the University of Houston, some felt he was being rushed through the system and not being allowed enough time to develop. It’s hard to slowly advance a prospect, though, when he is absolutely dominating every level of competition, and the Twins only managed to keep Crain in Triple-A until August of 2004, when he made his major-league debut.
Crain averaged a 2.93 ERA from 2004 through 2006, but his strikeout total was not nearly as good as it was in the minor leagues. The 24-year old was getting the job done, though, so the Twins kept giving him a regular workload.
In 2007, Crain had surgery on a torn rotator cuff and labrum in the middle of May and missed the rest of the season. He returned in 2008, where he was forced to man the set-up role when Pat Neshek went down with an injury. He posted a 3.59 ERA while striking out 7.2 batters per nine innings, the highest total of his major-league career.
Last year left much to be desired, and many Twins fans gave up on Crain. He put up an ERA of 4.70, but managed to strike out 7.5 batters per nine innings. His WHIP was at a career-worst, though, (the nickname “Crain-Wreck” was coined at this time) and he spent a significant amount of time in Rochester to try to get back on track.
After 12 games with the Red Wings, Crain returned to the Twins and put up a 2.20 ERA during the last two months of the season. Minnesota awarded him with a $2 million contract for the 2010 season. After his performance to end the 2009 season, Crain certainly deserves another chance, but he will have a very short leash.
6th Round (182nd overall) – Pat Neshek, LHP
A hometown boy, Neshek attended high school in Brooklyn Parks, but went to college in Butler. After signing in 2002, Neshek joined Crain in the Elizabethon bullpen. He struck out 13.5 batters per nine innings, the second highest total in the league behind Honeudis Pereyra.
Neshek made fairly steady progress through the organization, with one premature promotion to Double-A in 2003. The Twins corrected this by having Neshek start 2004 in Fort Myers, and then advancing once again to the Rock Cats, where he posted an ERA of 3.82 the second time around.
Like most side-armers, Neshek was very vulnerable to left-handed bats, which could have been a significant part of the reason he spent so much time in New Britain. In 2005 and 2006, Neshek had a FIP of 4.64 against left-handed batters, while a 1.98 FIP against right-handers. (This struggle continues to haunt Neshek, who has combined for a 5.02 FIP against left-handed batters in his major league career, but a 2.52 FIP against right-handers.)
The 24-year old spent his entire 2005 season in New Britain, where he finally showed the Twins the level of dominance they wanted to see, putting up an ERA of 2.19 while pushing his strikeout per nine total back over 10. Neshek spent the first part of 2006 in Triple-A, where he put up a 1.95 ERA while striking out 13 per nine innings. There was no way the Twins could keep him down on the farm for much longer, and they called him up to make his major-league debut in early July.
During his first season in the major leagues, Neshek boasted a 2.19 ERA, a 0.784 WHIP, and 12.9 strikeouts per nine innings. His ERA+ was 204 through the 37 innings he threw.
Neshek spent the entire 2007 season with the Twins, where he had an ERA of 2.94 and 9.5 strikeouts per nine innings. He was narrowly missed an All-Star appearance. Early in the 2008 season it was discovered that Neshek had a torn UCL and required Tommy John surgery. He missed all of last season, but appears to be ready for the start of the 2010 campaign.
Other notable picks:
5th Round (152nd overall) – Clete Thomas, OF – (Did not sign)
8th Round (242nd overall) – Adam Lind, 1B – (Did not sign)
Twins MVB LIVE will launch its first episode this Sunday night at 7:30 pm CST. Come join John for 30 minutes of Twins Talk, baseball chatter, and a chance to win two tickets to a 2010 Twins game at Target Field.
A couple weeks ago Twins blogger and Twins MVB contributor, Andrew Kneeland, asked the Twins blogging community to come together to celebrate February 12 as Nick Punto Day. Kneeland knew that Punto has been one of the most polarizing and head-scratching players for the Twins over the past six years.
My feelings for Nick Punto are difficult to put in writing, so I had to simply say them to you directly…
* Correction * I meant to say a .647 OPS (on-base plus slugging… not just slugging)
Thanks to Andrew for allowing me to release some steam over the man, the myth, the legend, little Nicky Punto.
The real value in today’s holiday is hearing what the rest of the blogging community has to say about number 8. I could link all the blog posts from today, or I’ll just send you to the #NickPuntoDay Twitter feed. Yes, that’s correct. Nick Punto Day has it’s own Twitter feed… and that’s all folks.
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