Although the season is just around the corner, there is still plenty of time to start a mini-series, isn’t there? As we follow the latest (and most likely inaccurate) Joe Mauer rumors, here is a review of the first round of the 2000 draft, along with a few other notable picks.
1st Round (2nd overall) – Adam Johnson, RHP
With the highly-coveted 2nd overall pick in the draft, the Twins selected right-handed pitcher Adam Johnson, from Cal State Fullerton. Johnson dominated collegiate batters, and was a candidate to go first overall, but signability issues pushed him down to No. 2.
The Twins aren’t known to rush prospects, but they indulged themselves with Johnson after the young righty enjoyed a good season in both High-A and Double-A. At this time, it wasn’t known whether Johnson could remain a starter, or if he would be forced to the bullpen. Either way, most were convinced Johnson would be a star.
After seven appearances with the Twins in 2001, Johnson amassed an ERA of 8.25 through 25 innings. He was quickly returned to the minor leagues, where he toiled in Triple-A for the rest of his career. He left baseball after the 2008 season, which he spent with the Southern Maryland Blue Crabs, an Independent League team.
Johnson was ranked by Baseball American as the Twins’ top prospect heading into the 2001 season, but slipped to 5th in 2002, and 10th in 2003, before falling off the map.
Unnecessary hype was a major reason Johnson was a failure at the major league level, but not being allowed to fully develop in the minor leagues could be another contributing factor. The Twins gave Johnson a signing bonus of $2.5 million, which was outrageously high at the time.
It is disappointing to notice how many other major-league stars were taking after Johnson in the 1st round of the 2000 draft. Adam Wainwright, Chase Utley, and Rocco Baldelli were all first-round selections in the 2000 draft. Adrian Gonzalez was the first-overall selection of the Florida Marlins.
Heilman enjoyed a successful major league career, but he wasn’t signed after the Twins drafted him in 2000. He re-entered the draft in 2001, and was drafted by the New York Mets. Heilman was in the Chicago Cub’s bullpen last year, where he put up a 4.11 ERA in 72.1 innings. His ERA+ was 109.
12th Round (342nd overall) – Jason Kubel, OF
2000 was a relatively unsuccessful year for the Twins’ scouting and drafting departments, but they did find a late-round gem in Jason Kubel. A right-handed outfielder (although Kubel did pitch in high school with decent results) they drafted out of high school, Kubel lit up just about every minor league level he was at.
Up until 2004, Kubel was probably considered as an average minor league outfielder: below-average base running abilities and no power to speak of, he wasn’t especially valuable. In the 2004 season with New Britain and Rochester, though, Kubel’s slugging percentage shot up almost 70 points higher than his previous career high. Hitting a total of 22 home runs in the 2004 season between Double-A and Triple-A, Kubel instantly became a top prospect.
As we are all now aware, Kubel’s selection in the 2000 draft was a wise decision. As one of the best offensive outfielders in the league, Kubel is no doubt a source of pride for Minnesota’s scouting department.
If you haven’t heard yet, Francisco Liriano had an amazing outing Thursday night in the Dominican Winter League striking out 10 batters in just five innings and allowing just one hit. Liriano has a 0.49 ERA in 37 innings this winter and apparently has a fastball that is topping off at 95-96 mph.
Twins fans are smart enough to be cautiously optimistic about Liriano’s performance this winter. Granted the Dominican Winter League is not the AL Central, but Liriano is competing for the number five spot in the rotation and has the potential to pitch like a number one ace.
Justin Morneau was selected as one of the elite Canadians to carry the Olympic torch on its way to Vancouver for the upcoming winter games. The best part of this story, Morneau joins other Canadian celebs including Steve Nash, Sidney Crosby, and of course Shania Twain. Can’t believe Jesse Crain isn’t on that list?
Twins blogger, Topper Anton, is doing a great series interviewing and introducing various members of the Twins blogging community. You get to learn a little more about some of the great Twins bloggers. This week I was honored to be highlighted in Topper’s column. Learn a bit more about Twins MVB.
Look for the new header to appear on the site in the next week or so and thanks to everyone for your patience with this contest. I sincerely appreciate all the Twins MVB fans for participating in this competition and look for more throughout the 2010 season.
This week’s Fan Friday comes from a Jennifer Rumpca of Sioux Falls, South Dakota. Jennifer accounts her experience from this past week’s visit from the Twins Caravan. You can follow Jenn on Twitter.
This past Tuesday, January 26, 2010, the Twins Winter Caravan rolled into Sioux Falls, SD, and I was one of the many fans in attendance. I have always wanted to attend this event but never got the chance or had a stop this close to me, except for when I lived in Minneapolis I suppose.
Anyways, I arrived just before starting time and did not really know what to expect. I found a seat in the bleachers and waited for the festivities to start. It was a nice feeling to be around so many Twins fans and it had a kind of similar feeling to being at a game.
The event started with a detailed video going through the expected roster with commentary by Ron Gardenhire and others. The video also talked a lot about Target Field and the excitement of finally bringing outdoor baseball back to Minnesota. The video was interesting, but I, along with the rest of the crowd, was anxious for Bert Blyleven, Jeff Manship, and Denard Span to take the stage.
They finally did to a standing ovation from the crowd and each answered some questions. The topics ranged from how the players keep up their arm strength in the off season to Bert’s curveball and his quest for the Hall of Fame to that day’s signing of Jim Thome (which all three seemed to approve of).
After the short question and answer session, it was time to get in line for autographs. I am really bad at judging crowd sizes, but I would guess there was maybe around 500 people there, give or take a few hundred, and just about everyone got in line for autographs including myself. After a short two hours of standing in line I finally got my autographs and could not wait to brag up my experience to my dad, who is a huge Twins fan and the reason I am a Twins fan today.
So after about 10 years of being a Twins fan officially, I finally was able to experience some of the off season action and now have one more reason to love the Twins. I really give the Twins organization props for involving and engaging the fans as much as they do. With that said, the event was quite the teaser and I am ready for the season to begin. How many days until opening day?
Erik Lis seems to have flown off the radar these days. After putting up a .283/.353/.462 batting line in his second consecutive year at New Britain, I gave Lis the 47th position on my Top 50 Prospects list.
Should he be higher? After all, the guy has hit everywhere he has been.
As a 25-year old in Double-A, though, Lis is quickly losing momentum. After a successful collegiate career, spending two years in the same location isn’t usually in the cards for a high-caliber hitter. Lis has never been the best athlete, and his defense is well below average, but he has swatted plenty of home runs at every level he has been. Here are his career stats in the Twins’ organization.
Shouldn’t his bat be enough to carry him through the system, or does having a clear defensive position carry more value than most think?
Lis’ powerful bat limits his defensive options to the corner outfield or first base. Spending the majority of the 2009 season either at first base or as a designated hitter, the New Britain coaching staff showed that they don’t have much confidence in Lis’ fielding abilities in the outfield.
As an American League organization, the Twins utilize a designated hitter every day. Lis is one of the few prospects in the Twins’ system that is almost purely a designated hitter. As evidenced by the promotion Lis didn’t receive after the 2008 season, the Twins place a very high emphasis on defense in their prospects. Should they, though?
What do you think? Should a prospect like Lis be valued more by the Twins and moved more aggressively? Or do the Twins place the right amount of emphasis on defense among their prospects?
Another year of the Hall of Fame voting has come and gone and Bert is still waiting for his call. Well, he actually got a call from the Hall of Fame this year, just not the one he wanted. Rather rare, but Bert did receive notification that he was not elected. “Hey Bert, we really think you’ve improved but again you didn’t quite make it. Sorry man, but come out again next year, ok bud?”
Our favorite combo former Twin and broadcaster’s plight has been well documented. And I’m not talking about Roy Smalley. It has been a strange ride for Bert in this voting process. In his first year on the ballot, 1998, he registered an underwhelming 17.5% of the vote. Not staggering by any means, but the number is respectable for a first timer. Bert hovered around that same percentage for 3 years, then finally began a slow and steady climb throughout the steroid-ridden 2000s into serious contention with percentages in the low 50s. He did see a drop in 2007, only to spike into the low 60s percentage the following year. Now, in 2009, he falls 5 votes short. You have to wonder.
Bert certainly made it clear that he didn’t understand the patterns of the voters, vocalizing his frustration in the media telling the writers to just not vote for him at all. A tad cynical at the onset, Bert has mastered the public relations game necessary to push himself into the hall and should go in next year. Gaining votes one year, losing the next, you can’t blame the guy if he felt he was in the middle of some Mean Girls scheme more appropriately contrived for a homecoming queen, not one of the best pitchers in his era aiming for the Hall of Fame.
The climate is perfect for his entrance. The grand ol’ game is seeing less of its stars and regulars on the juice and the focus is returning to the elements of pitching, speed, strategy, and defense. Natural beauties of the game that were run over by the homerun craze. Back to Ty Cobb style ball. Doubles, triples, bunts and sacrifices. And red-headed dutchmen hurlers who wanted the ball in their hands past the 7th inning. It may be a circus getting Bert into Cooperstown and he’ll fit right in as a prankster, but even more so as a class act for his respect of the game and accomplishments while playing for mostly small-market, mediocre teams.
Bert will get the last laugh when he asks, “what took so long?”
25 Jan. 2009: Coming off a solid season in which he did not see much playing time in the second half, Orlando Hudson remained unsigned despite several teams needing help at second base, where he has established himself as a frontline player.
25 Jan. 2010: Second verse, same as the first.
Hudson’s extended availability after the 2008 season made a fair amount of sense. His extended absence in the second half was due to a dislocated wrist that required surgery, ending his season in early August. Even missing almost two months, Hudson was still a type-A free agent, and was offered arbitration by Arizona, giving teams another reason to be wary.
Indeed, Hudson wouldn’t sign with the Dodgers until 20 February, the day many pitchers and catchers reported.
This time around, Hudson’s availability is a little bit of a mystery. He was dinged up at the end of the season, but losing his playing time to Ronnie Belliard was based on something besides health and performance. Sure, Belliard was hot at the end of the year, but Hudson was a top-3 second baseman in 2009 and yet found himself riding pine.
The Dodgers didn’t handcuff Hudson the way the Diamondbacks did after the 2008 season, they didn’t offer him arbitration, making him a much more attractive target to thrifty teams that are opposed to giving up first-round picks.
At 5.4 wins above replacement player, Hudson was the 33rd most valuable player in baseball last year, equal to Joe Nathan, and more valuable than CC Sabathia, Shin-Soo Choo, Justin Verlander, or Aaron Hill. While he is more than respectable at the plate (9th highest VORP among second baseman with an above average EqA), Hudson’s value derives greatly from his skill afield.
Normally, my go-to defensive stat is Ultimate Zone Rating or UZR, and Hudson’s -3.3 runs below average in 2009 isn’t terrible, but I think it undervalues his skill. Clay Davenport’s Fielding Runs Above Average ranks him as 16 runs above average at second base*, which seems about right. He’s a plus defender, who doesn’t leave the bat at home. His injured groin almost certainly limited his lateral movement later in the season, which may have helped to depress his UZR, but something that isn’t likely to hang on into 2010.
*Necessary note: despite both being called “runs” the scale for UZR and FRAA is very different, so it isn’t that there’s a nearly 20 run discrepancy between the two, just that one ranks him as above average and the other slightly below. It looks like a big difference, but it’s a little bit of an optical illusion.
A career .282/.348/.431 hitter, Hudson is a prototypical top of the order hitter. He draws walks at an above average rate, makes good contact, and while he isn’t a power hitter by any definition, he’s not Jason Tyner or Adam Everett.
Which brings us to the Twins’ needs, namely, a slick-fielding second baseman and a high-OBP hitter to hit ahead of Mauer/Morneau/Kubel/Cuddyer. If you haven’t connected these dots yet, well, I can’t much help you.
If you believe that those really are the Twins’ needs (which, to a large extent, they are), then you’ve got to see Hudson as the answer. He’s a switch hitter, meaning he won’t contribute to the lefty block at the top of the order, and he’s a perfect hitter behind Span and ahead of Mauer.
The sticking point here, as it so often is, is cash monies (as the kids say). Lest ye tread the well-trodden path of “BLARG the Twins are too cheap to sign anyone!” it seems pertinent to look at the Twins’ finances at this point in the offseason. According to Joe C’s estimates at the Star Tribune, the Twins have sunk some $90 million into the payroll this year, which would raise them from 23rd to 14th in the payroll rankings (assuming no other team had spent money this offseason, the exact rankings won’t be known for weeks). Irrespective of rank, the Twins payroll is $23 million higher than last year, and that’s before Mauer’s new contract is announced.
Hudson’s contract requests are said to be at 1-year, $9 million, which would make him the fifth highest-paid Twin if he were to get it. Now, with most free agents, this time of year is when you see their prices drop (Mark DeRosa this year, Joe Crede last year, it’s a grand tradition), but O-Hud seems locked into his $9 million demands.
The Nationals, the other team mentioned in connection with O-Dawg, seem to have turned their eyes elsewhere after finding Hudson to be more or less intransigent. In an email, Baseball Prospectus’ John Perotto noted that Hudson was really unhappy with the way last offseason went, the way he was treated by Joe Torre, and as such, was determined to get paid like he thought he deserved to be paid.
Money is value, Hudson wants to be valued, so pay the man his money. I get that. It does make me wonder if he’d accept a multiyear deal for a lower average annual value. The Twins don’t have anyone waiting in the wings at second or short, so if they believe Hudson can be productive into his age 33-34 seasons, there’s little reason not to save the money on the front end and sign him to a 3/21 deal instead of the 1/9 he’s reported to be seeking. Granted, it puts the Twins on the hook for more money in an absolute sense, and Hudson hasn’t been the healthiest of players, but it’s an option worth exploring if the Twins are willing to commit $6-7 million to a player, but not the full $9 million Hudson is seeking.
The fact is that the Twins won’t pay $9 million for Hudson. That doesn’t mean that he won’t get $9 million from someone, or that the Twins won’t be the team that ends up signing him for less, but right now there’s just no common ground. If I had to guess, I believe that Hudson’s price will drop eventually, perhaps even soon. Everyone wants to be paid what they believe themselves to be worth, but when push comes to shove, a job is a job.
The two teams most commonly connected to Hudson thus far are the Twins and the Nats, both of whom seem to be waiting for Hudson’s price to fall. I can’t see either deciding at this point that they are just going to sign him—damn the cost—when they’ve waited this long to make a move.
As in the past, this is a question of dollars and cents. The Twins have already upgraded the infield, and may choose to target their dwindling fund elsewhere, but they’ve already shown a willingness to spend $5 million (the amount they offered Jarrod Washburn). If they can spend $2 million more, and if Hudson is willing to drop his price by that same amount, I really think that a deal will get done. What remains to be seen is if either of those things will happen.
So the rumors are true, the Twins are having conversations with free agent slugger and long time Twins-killer, Jim Thome. The 39-year old Thome is looking to find at bats his options appear to be down to the White Sox or Twins. Joe C. from the Star Tribune has a great piece covering the topic.
Besides just the sticker shock of the star slugger’s name and his 564 career homeruns, I actually really like the move for the Twins. It would be the perfect addition if Thome was a righthanded bat, but his addition would bring pop to the bench as well as give Ron Gardenhire to play Jason Kubel in left or rightfield and DH Thome. This move could push Delmon Young into working hard and also give the Twins a go to pinch hitter in clutch situations if a guy like Nick Punto steps up with two men on base.
There are a few other points made in this story that are worth nothing:
No one has hit more homeruns, 57, against the Twins than Thome.
The Opening Day payroll will be above $90 million which is up considerably from last year’s $65 million. If the Twins do find a way to lockup Joe Mauer to a long-term deal fans certainly can’t call this current Twins team cheap.
For the first from what I’ve seen, Joe C. mentions the Twins have had internal discussions about infield free agents Orlando Hudson, Felipe Lopez, and Miguel Tejada. Rightfully so, the Twins are waiting for prices to drop and the club could still fill a few holes before spring training at affordable prices. Patience is a virtue!
In another interesting note, St. Paul native, Joe Mauer, will be filming an episode of ESPN’s Homecoming this Wednesday, January 27 at his high school alma mater, Cretin-Derham Hall.
Fan Friday is back in 2010 here at Twins MVB and we’re excited to hear what you have to say each week on Friday. If you are interested in posting a Fan Friday column of your own just email John at twinsmvb@gmail.com. This week’s entry comes from Louie Schuth. Check out Louie’s post and his Twins blog titled Hitting The Eephus.
Previously on my blog, I’ve discussed that what the Twins need most is a #2 hitter to get on base in front of Mauer. There are only 2nd baseman left on the market that fit this mold. The two most ideal fits are Orlando Hudson and Felipe Lopez.
Hudson has been reported to be looking for $9 million next year and he hopes to sign with a team soon. The Twins appear to be waiting for his price to drop, but the Nationals and Mets are in on him. There hasn’t been much interest in Lopez, I’ve only heard him connected to the Cardinals. They haven’t made strides toward signing him, and they’d want him to play 3rd base. He has never played more than 47 games of third in one season.
Hudson and Lopez are very similar players. They are both switch hitters, which is good because whoever hits in front of Mauer should not be a lefty because that could make 5 lefties in a row.
*Please not that when comparing them I will compare their stats from the past 2 years.
Both should put up a decent average. Hudson’s 2 year avgerage is .292, Lopez’s is .298. Hudson gets on base with a .361 OBP, Lopez gets on at a .366 clip. Advantage Lopez.
Whoever hits in front of Mauer should have plenty to hit. Lopez made contact with 92.7% pitches inside the strike-zone that he swung at. Hudson made contact with 88.7%. Advantage Lopez
Hudson hit 17 homers over the past 2 years, while Lopez hit 15. Hudson slugged .431 and Lopez had a SLG of .401. Advantage Hudson.
Once they are on, neither are not much of a threat to steal. Lopez had 14 total steals and Hudson had 12. Advantage Lopez.
One thing the Twins have been known to do is take the extra base when possible. Hudson did this 56% of the time, Lopez did it 33% of the time. Advantage Hudson.
When you’re hitting in front of Mauer and Morneau and you make an out, it should be productive. 41% of Hudson’s outs were pruductive, while only 26% of Lopez’s were. Advantage Hudson.
Hudson had a fielding percentage of .986 and Lopez’s was .974. Lopez’s UZR/150 was -0.25 and Hudson’s was -5.65. Hudson is more accurate but Lopez saves more runs in the long run. Advantage Lopez.
Hudson will command a higher contract than Lopez, and there has been much more interest in Hudson. Advantage Lopez.
Hudson’s WAR the past 2 years were 2.0 and 2.9. Lopez’s were 0.8 and 4.6. Hudson is much more consistent, but Lopez has the higher ceiling. No advantage.
If you tally them up the tally is Lopez 5, Hudson 3. This is slightly misleading, as Hudson has two very important categories, taking the extra base and making productive outs.
Hudson is the more consistent player, while Lopez has the tools to be the better player. So, Twins fans, what do you think? Should the Twins sign Hudson or Lopez? Personally, I think Hudson is the better fit, but would be happy with either.
While we sit and wait for some meaningful news to float out of the Twins’ offices in Target Field, anticipating the future is one of the best ways to pass time.
As we saw last week, the Minnesota Twins have no shortage of elite outfield prospects. From the stars like Aaron Hicks and Ben Revere to the lesser-known Joe Benson, Angel Morales, Max Kepler, and Rene Tosoni, there is plenty of outfield talent in the Twins’ system.
Most of these guys are still quite a ways away from breaking into the major leagues, but by 2012, the Minnesota outfield could conceivably be bursting at the seams.
Currently, Denard Span and Michael Cuddyer are the best outfielders on the active roster, with Delmon Young and Jason Kubel close behind. Cuddyer is nearing the end of his contract, and will most likely finish his career with the Twins before Hicks reaches the Bigs. And Kubel is obviously better-suited for the role of a designated hitter.
That leaves Span and Young as the outfielders of the future, along with the hordes of minor league talent. Will all of these prospects find regular playing time? If so, where?
Most probably, Revere will be an offensive-minded corner outfielder with average defense. Hicks should be above-average both offensively and defensively, which makes him an ideal candidate for center field. Morales and Benson also have great defense, but their size and power may eventually push them to a corner. Tosoni’s lack of defense will relegate him to a corner, while Kepler is a complete wild card as this point.
(As a side note, you won’t necessarily see these guys playing in their designated/predicted spots this year in the minor leagues. I’m sure Hicks will get some time in the corner, while Revere, Morales, and maybe even Tosoni could get some reps in center field.
As a minor-leaguer, Span played almost exclusively in center field, but had to learn a corner position when he was promoted to the Twins because of the presence of Carlos Gomez. Hopefully Minnesota learned their lesson.)
The estimated-times-of-arrival for these players vary. Revere and Benson will beat Hicks and Morales to the major leagues by a year, Tosoni could be a September call-up as early as this season, while Kepler’s primary objective should be to finish his junior year of high school.
Outside of Tosoni, none of these prospects should be ready by the 2011 season, which very well could be Cuddyer’s last. Minnesota will most likely be forced to deal with an extremely crowded outfield for the 2012 season.
Span will most likely be shifted to the corner position opposite Revere, while Hicks will roam center field in Target Field in 2012. Admittedly, I have no idea what will happen with Young during these upcoming years. He could very well use the momentum he finished the 2009 campaign with and exceed all expectations, but he could just as easily fall flat on his face.
I do know, however, that not all prospects will pan out as expected. The scenario I just presented (an outfield of Revere/Hicks/Span) leaves out Morales, Benson, and Tosoni.
While they have serious issues to work out (strikeouts for Morales, left-handed pitchers for Tosoni) they are incredibly talented and could be potential trade chips.
This over-crowded outfield is certainly a good problem for the Twins. If one prospect gets injured or simply doesn’t live up to expectations, another one will be waiting in the wings.
What will the Minnesota outfield look like in 2012? Which top prospect am I too high on? Which one am I under-valuing? Be sure to let your voice be heard in the comment section!
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