Andrew Kneeland and John Meyer Talk Twins
Posted by John on July 16, 2010 under Andrew, John | 
5 Comments to Read
I grabbed TwinsMVB contributor and founder of TwinsTarget.com, Andrew Kneeland, to talk Twins on a Friday afternoon. Have a listen!
Twins/White Sox Series Preview 7/15
Posted by John on July 15, 2010 under John | 5 Comments to Read
After a rather boring All-Star break the Twins are back at it to start the second half of the season. John Meyer, the Twins MVB, has an audio version of the series preview. Take a listen!
Twins/Jays Series Preview 7/6-7/9
Posted by Dan on July 6, 2010 under Dan | Read the First Comment
The Twins spent July 5 with a bitter taste in their mouth. They lost three of four to the Rays despite outplaying them for huge swaths of the series. The bullpen coughed up late leads and was unable to stop the bleeding for Nick Blackburn in the finale, ending a run of really solid performances that had set up with the lowest bullpen ERA in the American League.
Losing three of four to the Rays isn’t a fate worse than death, but after poor performances against the Mets and Brewers, it feels bigger than it was. It’s hard to play a good team, beat them fairly soundly, but watch the games fade away at the end. Making matters worse is the surge of the White Sox and the consistent play of the Tigers; both teams are asserting their belief that this division is still ripe for the taking, and indeed it is.
The Twins go into Toronto needing a win less for the standings than for their mental state, but the Jays are in need of wins of their own.
Like the Twins, the Jays are reeling. They power that brought them notoriety in the early part of their season has all but dried up, and they’ve lost their last four series—including a four game sweep by the Indians—as a result. With the All-Star Break less than a week away, and both teams reeling, it would be easy to be hyperbolic about this series being a litmus test for the rest of the season or proof that the Twins need to add Adam Dunn/Cliff Lee/Diego Forlan before the deadline. I view this series more or less as a series that a good team should win.
Carl Pavano, he of the unholy ‘stache, got rocked his last time in Toronto, but has been the Twins’ best pitcher since that shelling. If he can maintain his current form rather than the form he showed when last the Twins left American soil, he gives them the best chance to win, especially since his mound opponent has an ERA barely under seven and a WHIP over 1.50.
Kevin Slowey has been a tough pitcher to pin down. He’s been really good in wins: 2.40 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP with a .291 BABIP, but he’s pitched the Twins out of a number of games with his 7.71 ERA and 1.75 WHIP in losses. It’s not hard to see the difference, he’s pitched about the same in both, but his BABIP rises to .365, meaning he’s giving up hits on over 1/3rd of balls in play. Havingg JJ Hardy back will help, but if the balls are hit where his defenders ain’t, Slowey will struggle.
Scott Baker hasn’t been as bipolar as Slowey, but he too has been both great and terrible, sometimes alternating starts. In his seven wins, Baker holds an ERA of 2.02 and a WHIP of 0.92, while in losses his WHIP doubles to 1.81 and his ERA rises to 8.12. He struggles the second time through the order, so if he makes it through the fourth and fifth without too much damage, it bodes well for the Twins.
Whether the offense shows up or not is anyone’s guess. Joe Mauer has been hitting better over the last few games, as has Michael Cuddyer, but Jason Kubel and Denard Span haven’t been as strong. Justin Morneau has been the Twins offensive powerhouse for most of the season and they’ll need him to be at his best if they’re going to match the Jays’ offensive potential.
I like the Twins to win at least two in this series. They’ll miss both Ricky Romero and Shaun Marcum, which is a great stroke of luck, and if the Jays continue to see their flyballs die at the wall instead of going over it, they could struggle to score runs. Slowey and Baker will need their luck to hold rather than swing the other direction—both won their last start and neither has won back-to-back starts since the beginning of May.
As I noted in the opening, this is the type of series that a good team will win. There’s half a season left, no game is a must win at this point, but if the Twins would like an August and September that isn’t marked by stress and worry, these are the games they’ll need to win to give themselves a comfortable lead.
Twins/Rays Series Preview: 7/1-7/4
Posted by andrew on June 30, 2010 under Andrew | 3 Comments to Read
After a satisfying series victory over the divisional rival Detroit Tigers, the Twins will end their homestand with a four-game set against the Tampa Bay Rays.
Tampa Bay started the season off on an excellent note, perching themselves atop the American League East while the Yankees and Red Sox tried to re-group. Now, though, the Rays have struggled to maintain their pitching prowess, and have slipped in the standings.
Still one of the best teams in baseball, though, the Rays will be trying to accomplish the same thing as the Twins during this series: closing the door on a rotten June in an attempt to get back on track in July.
Game One – Jeff Niemann (6-2, 2.72) vs. Carl Pavano (9-6, 3.33)
Niemann, 27, was a major factor into Tampa Bay’s incredible start to the season, posting a 2.38 ERA through the month of May. Like his team, though, Niemann took a step back in June. This step back has been minimal, but could be the start of a major regression.
Despite coming off two successful starts against National League squads, Niemann is a classic example of a pitcher with artificially impressive stats. With an extremely low BABIP, a low line drive percentage, and a very high strand rate, it’s not a question of whether or not Niemann will regress; it’s a question of when.
While he’s certainly not as good of a pitcher as his stats suggest, Niemann may not return to earth for quite a while. The longer he keeps up this façade, though, the harder his fall will be.
Pavano’s success, meanwhile, appears to be more a result of ability. Although he has the benefit of a low BABIP and high strand rate, Pavano hasn’t given up any fewer line drives than is usual for the 34-year old. His overall talent level is probably worse than his current 3.33 ERA, but to expect a 4.00 ERA on the season would be fair.
Though not the case for most Twins, the month of June has been extremely friendly to Pavano. Coming off two consecutive complete games, Pavano has an ERA of 2.25 through 40 June innings. Pavano (and teammate Francisco Liriano) have been paramount to Minnesota’s ability to avoid a free-fall this month.
Both BJ Upton and Carl Crawford have dealt with minor bumps and buises these past few days, and they may miss a game or two during this series.
Game Two – David Price (11-3, 2.44) vs. Scott Baker (4-7, 4.97)
A few weeks ago, David Price was in the same boat as Niemann; a lucky pitcher who would likely plummet back to a more realistic realm. Instead of regressing, though, Price seems to be finally tapping into his incredible potential.
Price, 24, has marginal success last year with basically two pitches: a four-seam fastball and a slider. This season Price has introduced two new pitches: a curveball and a two-seam fastball. With the ability to better deceive opposing batters, Price has had great success in 2010. His ERA won’t stay below 2.50 for too long, and he won’t be able to strand nearly as many runners as he is now, but Price, the first overall pick in the 2007 draft, has started to realize his potential. Which should frighten batters across the American League.
Baker has been one of the most disappointing players for Minnesota this season. A career 4.36 ERA pitcher, Baker’s near-5.00 ERA this season has angered many fans. Looking at the stats, though, shows that Baker has BABIP slightly higher than is usual for the right-hander, and that more fly balls than usual are ending up as home runs. Both of these will likely regress eventually, though, Minnesota fans could be treated to a start along the lines of Baker’s most recent.
Game Three – Wade Davis (5-9, 4.68) vs. Francisco Liriano (6-6, 3.47)
When looking at opposing pitchers in these series previews, I usually make sure to mention whether or not that pitcher has had “luck” on their side. In Davis’ case, though, his poor stats are simply because he hasn’t pitched very well.
Whether his issues are mental or mechanical isn’t necessarily known, but he has garned far fewer swinging strikes than in the past. This lack of deception has greatly hurt his stats, and Price could be replaced by top prospect Jeremy Hellickson very soon.
Liriano has been one of the best pitchers in the American League this season, and “luck” hasn’t played too big a factor in his success. He will give up more home runs per fly ball than he is now, but all signs point back to the biggest reason for Liriano’s success: his improved slider.
Game Four – James Shields (6-8, 4.76) vs. Nick Blackburn (7-5, 6.02)
On the face of things, it appears that Shields has been unimpressive this season. When trying to root out the reason for this mediocrity, though, I can’t find any glaring abnormalities. Most of his batted-ball and plate discipline stats have remained the same from years past, as Shields is still inducing plenty of ground balls and getting ahead in the count at a very impressive clip.
So why is the ground-ball pitcher struggling? For one, his BABIP is slightly higher, but something intangible is also a likely culprit. In any case, Shields hasn’t been very effective this season, and there is no reason to believe that his mediocrity will end against the Twins.
Blackburn has also struggled to get batters out this year, but we can pinpoint exactly what is ailing the 28-year old righty: He just isn’t very good. He is dead-last in the league in strikeouts per nine innings, and when he throws a pitch in the strike zone, opposing batters make contact an astounding 96.6 percent of the time, which is also tops in the league.
Marginally successful for the past few years, Blackburn relied upon his extremely accurate arm to paint the corners of the plate and walk very few opposing batters. This year, however, it appears the league knows that most of Blackburn’s pitches are hittable.
GBT: June 29
Posted by John on June 29, 2010 under John | 2 Comments to Read
Another version of Good Twin, Bad Twin, and a Thought on June 29th.
Good Twin: Denard Span becomes the first player since Rafael Furcal in 2002 to hit three triples in one game. Span was all over Target Field tonight going 4-4 with two runs and five RBIs. Doesn’t get much better than that.
Bad Twin: Justin Morneau looked confused tonight with three ugly strikeouts. Morneau was 1-5 and left three runners on base. But at least Justin Bieber, who was performing next door at the Target Center, likes him.
Thought: Although the Twins regained first place in the AL Central with their defeat against the Detroit Tigers, Cliff Lee pitched his third consecutive complete game for the Seattle Mariners defeating the mighty New York Yankees. Just saying.
Twins and Tigers Series Preview for 6/28
Posted by John on June 28, 2010 under John | Read the First Comment
My thoughts on the start of a big series tonight at Target Field. I’ll be at the stadium in section 219 if you want to stop by and say hello.
Twins vs. Mets Series Preview
Posted by John on June 25, 2010 under John | Read the First Comment
Fan Friday: Eric Meyer
Posted by John on under John | Read the First Comment
This week’s Fan Friday comes from Eric Meyer (no relation to me) who is back for his second Fan Friday. Meyer recently worked for the Minnesota Timberwolves and is a contributor for The Post SD. He’s a cynical Twins fan with a sense of humor.
As it stands right now, Twins fans are a little nervous. The Twins are going through one of the toughest stretches in the majors; in their next 9 series, only the Brewers are sub .500. Meanwhile, the Tigers are nipping on their heels as they voraciously stroll through sub .500 teams and remain only a 1 game back. To make matters worse, the White Sox have found new life and are on a torrid pace to catch up, winning 9 in a row and 11 of their last 12.
Scared? I’m not. Though they are in a tight race right now, the Twins love playing second half baseball.
The Twinkies have always been regarded as a second half team, and until I saw the stats I figured it was just something they say, like Kobe is the best finisher in the game. Since Gardenhire took over in 2002, the Twins winning percentage in the second half is a staunch .566 compared to their first half which is only .531, This includes four seasons with a winning percentages over .600, and another two over .500.
Not only is their winning percentage dramatic, but they also play a bulk of their games against the division. In their last 81 games, they get to play more than half of their games against divisional rivals. This year the Twins have feasted on the central like a fat guy at Old Country Buffet. In the division this year they are 17-9, and the only team in the AL Central that has a winning record against other central teams.
So what does all this mean? It means I expect the Twins to tear through the second half of the season and clinch the AL Central easily. And since they don’t have the same type of competition that the AL East will be in, it means that they could potentially come out on top as having the first or second best record in the AL. Currently, in the East, the Rays and the Red Sox are within 1.5 games of first place, and the Blue Jays are only 6 and still surging. The same could be said about the West. The Rangers cannot keep up the current pace and will have to deal with the Angels and the A’s in the next few months.
Even with all these figures are you still not convinced? What if I were to tell you that according to Buster Olney of ESPN, the Twins are a leading contender for former Cy Young winner Cliff Lee? Feel better now?
Olney told Seth Everett on The MLB Today podcast that the Mariners are in despereate need of a new catcher. The Twins have several young catchers that have shown promise. Since the Mariners are out of contention already, they will be looking to get rid of Lee for some pieces in the future. One such piece is Wilson Ramos, who came up for a brief stint and did spectacularly well. He hit .296 in 7 games, two of which were multi-hit games. And let’s face it, if you are a good catcher in the Twins farm system, you have no future with the franchise.
It is unusual for the Twins to make a big move like this, but then again this is a very unusual year for them. In 2009 the Twins payroll was at 62 million, making them 24th in the league in payroll. This year they have ballooned their budget by a staggering 43.4% to 97.5 million. Even if the Twins take on Cliff Lee’s salary at 9 million, it will be prorated from when they receive him, and he will come off the books at the end of the season. At this point, it seems almost foolish for the Twins not to take him.
Hopefully by the end of this article you are feeling better about the Twins chances to not only make it out of the Central and maybe even a shot of winning the World Series. We do, after all, have the best catcher in the league, Morneau is on his way to his second AL MVP and of course Gardenhire can flat out manage. Yes, even after losing two in Milwaukee, I feel only encouraged by the franchise and hope to cheer them on as they fight to defend their division championship in beautiful new Target Field.
***Quick side note. If you haven’t been to the new stadium it is a must! And when you do go, make sure to sit along third base/ left field line (Twins MVB Section). The view of the Minneapolis sky line is absolutely breathtaking.
Minor League Check-In, 6/23
Posted by andrew on June 23, 2010 under Andrew | 3 Comments to Read
With a few months of the minor league season in the books, and with several players having been either promoted or demoted throughout the system, it’s time for another Minor League Check-In. Here are three players who Twins fans should be keeping their eye on this year:
Kyle Gibson, SP, New Britain Rock Cats
After dominating his opposition while with the Fort Myers Miracle, Gibson sported a 1.87 ERA on the season. His strikeout-to-walk ratio was looking excellent, and a few thought the former first-round pick may be able to challenge for a September call-up later in 2010.
Since being promoted to Double-A New Britain, however, Gibson has received a harsh welcome. Through seven starts, Gibson has a 4.83 ERA to go with an inflated WHIP. He is being hit much harder in New Britain, but Gibson has managed to keep his K/BB ratio in tact and as appealing as ever.
Nearly all hope of a 2010 appearance with the major-league club has been dissolved, but Gibson should still be able to finish the season with the Rochester Red Wings. He will contend for a rotation spot to start the 2011 season.
Joe Benson, OF, New Britain Rock Cats
Benson was one of the first Twins to be promoted this season, as he was sent from Fort Myers to New Britain. He has played 40 games at the Double-A level, and has proven that he isn’t over-matched at the higher level. He is still struggling with strikeouts, but Benson’s .350/.478 on-base and slugging percentages are among the best in Minnesota’s organization. Benson has hit 12 home runs so far this season, and is stealing more bases than he has in the past.
Although the Twins’ outfield is jam-packed with talented players, if Benson keeps hitting like this it will be impossible to leave him out of the major-league picture for too long.
Miguel Sano, 3B/OF, Dominican Summer League
One of the Twins’ biggest international signings in their history, Sano has been raking opposing pitching through his first 14 games. Hitting .341/.444/.636, Sano has shown himself to be a natural hitter at the Hot Corner.
Of course, he’s only had about 50 professional plate appearances, and Sano will need many more years before he is polished enough to join the big-league club. When Sano is ready for big-league action, though, the Twins will be more than happy to accommodate him.
MVB on Sports Talk Soup
Posted by John on June 22, 2010 under John | 3 Comments to Read
I had a fun time tonight joining the Godfather, Vito Chirco, and Steve Fetch from Twinkie Talk on the Sports Talk Soup podcast on Blog Talk Radio. It was great talking Twins and meeting another fellow Twins blogger.
The three of us discussed many topics including Cliff Lee and Twins trade deadline rumors, Delmon Young, Jon Rauch’s future as the Twins closer, Justin Morneau’s MVP chances, Joe Mauer’s lack of power, and the Twins standing in the AL Central.
To listen to the 26 minute piece click the link here and move to the 37 minute mark.
Thanks again to the Godfather for inviting me on the show and Steve for joining me.
