Turn on the Hot Stove

Posted by twinsmvb on October 30, 2008 under John | Be the First to Comment

With the World Series out of the way the 2009 Hot Stove season has officially begun. Here’s one of my favorite baseball reporters, Buster Olney, starting up the stove…

In news that maybe only I care about, the Chicago White Sox declined an option of Ken Griffey Jr. leaving the 38-year old future Hall of Famer a free agent this offseason. With Griffey’s rapidly declining numbers, a name still commanding somewhere around $6-8 million a year, and a (deserved) desire to play for a championship contender you got to wonder where Griffey will land this summer. Too bad he doesn’t fit with the Twins in any way. I’d be the first in line to purchase that Griffey Twins jersey!
LEN III documents all the players that filed for free agency yesterday. As expected, Eddie Guardado, Nick Punto, and Dennys Reyes file for the Twins. If I were a betting man, I’d guess that only Punto returns.

And now for something completely different…

MLB.com’s Kelly Theiser got to take a tour of Target Field this week. Her article isn’t too exciting, but it’s worth checking out the two picture galleries to see the park start to shape.

Have a great Friday Twins fans!

2008 Crowns a Champ

Posted by twinsmvb on October 29, 2008 under John | Read the First Comment

As I watched the Phillies mob Brad Lidge on the mound and celebrate their World Series victory I couldn’t help but think of opening day last April at the Metrodome. I was remembering the falling snow and the blowing wind as Twins fans packed into the always fair weathered Metrodome ready to embark on a 2008 season with many pending question marks. Gone were the mainstay stars like Johan Santana and Torii Hunter. In were new unfamiliar names like Carlos Gomez and Kevin Slowey. Expectations were low but excitement was high.

The 2008 season closes its doors with an unlikely champ in Philadelphia and an even more unlikely runner-up in Tampa Bay. But this 2008 MLB campaign can be summed up as nothing less than unlikely. The Yankees missed the playoffs; the heavily favored Detroit Tiger and New York Mets struggled. The Milwaukee Brewers made the playoffs for the first time since 1982. New stars emerged like Evan Longoria, Cliff Lee, and Geovanny Soto and old stars reached milestones like Griffey Jr’s 600th homerun. The All-Star break saw a Minnesota Twin win the Home Run Derby, what? And that next night the same guy scored the game winning run in 14 innings to steal another American League win from the National League. AL stars jumped leagues like CC Sabathia, Manny Ramirez, and Rich Harden. The list of 2008 surprises goes on and on.

But what made 2008 not only a surprising year, but an exciting year was the play of the 2008 Minnesota Twins. After a disappointing 2007 season, this year seemed set up for the same result if not worse for this young club. Yet Ron Gardenhire rallied the young boys and put together what can truly be called a team. In a complete team effort these ‘08 Twins made baseball exciting in Minnesota this summer and had such a thrilling season that it took 163 games to call it quits!

The Twins may have fell just short of the their goal, but it was a great year to be a Twins fan. As the new ballpark begins to take shape and the always exciting offseason begins full of rumors, trades, free agents, and my favorite hobby of talking about baseball, I congratulate the Minnesota Twins on a great season and the Philadelphia Phillies on a well deserved title!

The countdown beings to Monday, April 6th at 7:05 CST as the Twins host the Seattle Mariners for Opening Day 2009!

Elmer Fudd and the Flap Caps

Posted by twinsmvb on October 28, 2008 under John | 3 Comments to Read

Has anyone else noticed the new hats with weather flaps sporting the field in this wet and wild World Series?

A few nights ago in Game 4 I noticed Joe Maddon in the dugout and I thought, does that hat have flaps? Maddon never flapped down his flaps over his ears but I immediately saw this odd looking cap and was wondering if this was a special order for the little boys from St. Pete who were foreign to the brisk Philly Air. But last night in Game 5 the Elmer Fudd look could be found on the field by BJ Upton, Carl Crawford, Evan Longoria, Jason Bartlett, Shane Victorino, and Jimmy Rollins.

I did some research and it seems as if the caps, made by MLB hat maker New Era, were released this spring during Spring Training but had not been debuted on a field until the World Series. There is no official word from New Era or MLB.com on how to order a flap cap, but with winter vastly approaching I’m guessing they will be a hot item in the weeks to come.

I’m still undecided on what’s being called the “Elmer Fudd” look. Part of me thinks, “Wow, that’s kind of cool. I can support my Twins pride and stay warm in the freakin cold Minnesota winter!” The other part of me thinks, “Wow, those are really nerdy!”

Let me know what you think of the funky caps. Leave a comment below… would you wear one?

Off the TePoel

Posted by twinsmvb on October 27, 2008 under Dain | Be the First to Comment

Phive Reasons I Chose the Phillies

Heading into the World Series, the Tampa Bay Rays had become America’s team. The can do kids just knocked around the reigning champs. Ernie Johnson, Jr. of TBS had just concluded his piercing interview with ALCS MVP Matt Garza, who at 24 is the youngest pitcher in Major League history to win such an award. Johnson’s final question: “Matt, what was on your iPod before the game?” Garza amazingly left baseball fans with this insight; I summarize: “Yeah, I was listening to Tupac. He’s the man, and that’s all I can say.” The end.

Really? That’s it? Nothing like, “Well, I was listening to Tupac, but you know Ernie, I’m really proud of this team and what we’ve accomplished. We’ll celebrate tonight, but after that there’s a tough team over in Philadelphia and we’ve gotta get ready for them in what should be a great World Series, and hopefully we’ll be bringing home one more trophy.” Nah. 
Garza did admit earlier in the interview that he hoped he had just won Game 7 of the World Series, but the ALCS would have to do. Besides, they just beat the Red Sox, their season long nemesis since brawls busted out in Spring Training. The Rays had home field advantage and David Price. Certainly the National League opponent would be a pushover.
Without further ado, here are my Phive reasons for choosing the Phils:
1. Maturity
The Phillies were trounced last year by the Rockies in the ALDS. Ryan Howard was pitiful, Chase Utley went silent, and 2007 MVP Jimmy Rollins was nowhere to be found. 3 and out. Not this year. The Phillies handled the Brewers with ease, and quickly blew out the sparks of a Dodgers comeback in the NLCS when veteran Matt Stairs hit a clutch 2 run homer to bring the Phils within one win of the Dance. Most importantly, they rested and remained focused during their extended wait for Game 1. (Honorable Mention: Jamie Moyer in Game 3. He was up way past his bedtime, but what a performance.)
2. Immaturity
The Rays have been impressive all season long. Who seriously thought they would win the division after tailing off heading into the all-star break? Then they showed incredible mettle by sustaining their throne through key injuries down the stretch to Evan Longoria and Carl Crawford. The ALDS win over the White Sox was to be expected, and their trouncing of the Red Sox in games 3 and 4 and two-thirds of 5 was almost a ceremonial and symbolic changing of the guards in the AL East. But after the collapse of the bullpen in game 5, the pitching held on while the bats produced just enough to prevent another unbelievable Boston comeback. But this is where the accolades end. Longoria and Pena, through the three games (and have been pitiful in game 4) are a combined 0 for 22. And what happened to the Rays’ defense? That too, has gone to the wayside.
3. Cole Hamels
This man has been insane all postseason. He is young too, but he has the maturity some Rays may lack. In a press conference leading up to the World Series Hamels was focused on pitching and nothing else. The hoopla surrounding the Series was just that to the southpaw, distractions and shenanigans. His job didn’t change – the only difference is the extra attention from the media and friends and family. As a baseball purist, I loved it when he told his family they could celebrate during the holidays, but now was no time for show-and-tell. “So this is where Ryan Howard sits…no, he can’t get us any free Subway, Dad.”
4. MVPs
The Phillies are loaded with them. Howard in 2006. Rollins last year. Utley, arguably the first-half MVP and Howard is deserving of another one in 2008. The Rays had too many opportunities to win Game 1 and they didn’t do it. These MVPs were anything but in the first two games of the World Series, as the Phillies went something terrible like 1-31 with runners in scoring position. Horrendous, and the Rays let them get away with it, and you knew it wouldn’t last. Howard is hot, Rollins is rolling, and Utley is ubiquitous(ly on base? that’s weak). Either way, these MVPs have been supported by the late-blooming Pat Burrell and Jayson Werth (who?) and America is now seeing just how much these guys can hit. 
5. Bullpens
Ryan Madson and JC Romero setting up Brad Lidge. A winning formula right there who had shown no signs of slowing down. Meanwhile, the Rays bullpen had done an excellent job piecing it together to get to the World Series. But once they made it there, you had the feeling the starters were only going to give them 5 or 6 innings each night and eventually these guys would get lit up as they did against Boston in game 5 of the ALCS. Without a closer it’s awfully tough to win in the postseason. The bullpen has become critical to Major League Baseball. The Rays’ have a great bullpen, that’s why they’re in the World Series. The Phils are just better.
After all this I’m left wondering why I thought it would take the Phillies 7 games. Cole Hamels closes it out tomorrow night. And if Ryan Howard hits another homerun, he might steal away the MVP.

Twins 4 Holliday!

Posted by twinsmvb on October 26, 2008 under John | Read the First Comment

As a blogger, I feel it is my duty to sometimes say what people are afraid to say or don’t think about. Because bloggers are “journalists” with no editorial or contractual commitments we have the luxury to freely speak our mind and say whatever ridiculousness we want. And with the spirit of election season I’m going to start my campaign: Twins 4 (Matt) Holliday! Pretty ridiculous huh?
This past June during the season I wrote a post about why I thought the Twins should trade for Adrian Beltre of the Seattle Mariners. At the time this move seemed pretty ridiculous to other Twins bloggers and fans but to me really seemed to make sense. This potential trade was perhaps out of the normal realm for the Twins but seemed to make sense both as a good fit for the team and a trade with true possibility. Today the Beltre rumor is regarded as a true possibility for the Twins.
Now I’m not trying to say I told you so or that I have all the answers because I also thought that the Detroit Tigers would defeat the New York Mets this year in the World Series. But today I’m straying away from a rumor that is both a good fit for the team and a plausible reality. This is one of those rumors that although may be very far from plausible is a great fit for the team and makes you wonder… what if? It’s one of those ridiculous rumors.

TWINS 4 HOLLIDAY!

Troy E. Renck of the Denver Post writes that the Colorado Rockies have stated to rival executives that Matt Holliday is available. Before you start thinking we won’t need another outfielder, why would we want Holliday? Think about why we would want Holliday!
The 28-year old leftfielder is entering the prime of his career. He’s a righthanded power bat (which is exactly what we need) who hit .321 with 25 homeruns and 88 RBIs in 2008. The 6′4” 235 lb slugger even stole 28 bases last year. That would put him 2nd in SB behind Carlos Gomez for the Twins. Plus, imagine the right hander hitting in the cleanup role, sandwiched between fellow All-Stars Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau. Dangerous!
So as I argue, Holliday would be a great fit for this team that could be the missing piece with a healthy bullpen to take this team to the World Series. Now what would we have to give up to get him (besides money, we’ll get to that!)…
In my head I’d like to believe a package of D.Young/D. Span/G.Perkins would be enough. Perhaps, a Boof or a P.Humber would have to be included because the Rockies desperately need arms. This may seem like a lot, but Holliday would be three times more valuable than Young in leftfield and I personally think given Span’s minor league track record there may never be a better time to trade him. We would definitely miss his leadoff ability and his defense, but Holliday is an upgrade defensively over Young and Cuddyer in right isn’t too shabby. Throw the speedy Gomez, who caught more balls than anyone last year, in between Holliday and Cuddyer and the Twins have a very solid outfield defense. As Brett noted in his Matt Cain rumors, I think Perkins would be expendable and could be replaced with another arm.
However, the Denver Post says that Colorado is looking for an elite pitcher in return. We may not have “an elite pitcher” to trade but I don’t think the Rockies will get that from anyone because they aren’t going to trade Holliday to San Diego for Jake Peavy. So another possible package could be K.Slowey/D.Young/P.Humber. The Rockies would get two young arms and a great arm in Slowey (although his flyball rate could be dangerous in Coors Field) and get a young back with potential in Delmon. Slowey would be a big loss for the Twins but we could either move Boof back into the rotation or would still have an extra outfielder in Span or Cuddyer to move for pitching or middle infield help.
Here comes the part of the deal that makes this rumor ridiculous. If you think my trade package to the Rockies seems impossible and that Colorado will never take it, you must realize that Matt Holliday is entering his final year of his contract and if traded will probably require a multi year deal of roughly 5-years for $90-100 million. Do the Twins have that kind of money??? I believe they do, but it’s a question of whether or not they will spend it. The deal would beat Morneau’s franchise record 6-year of $80 million. But what a better way to make a run for the title in 2009 and enter the new ballpark in 2010 built around a core of Mauer, Morneau, Holliday, Nathan, Baker, Liriano, Blackburn, Gomez, and Casilla.
So as I said, because I have no editorial or contractual commitments I’m going to start this ridiculous (but smart) rumor and get those little ideas planted in your head. Just think about that potential lineup next year? And on November 4th vote: Twins 4 Holliday!

Garza in Game 3

Posted by twinsmvb on October 25, 2008 under John | Be the First to Comment

The World Series is back on the ticket tonight with game 3 in Philadelphia. I don’t know what I’m going to do at night when the playoffs are done??? I’ll be lost, until Lost returns I guess.

Everyone’s favorite missed Twin at the moment, Matt Garza, takes the bump tonight for the Rays against Jame Moyer, the oldest player in Major League Baseball. What an intriguing matchup? The hotheaded kid with wicked stuff versus the lazy ole lefty who lulls hitters to sleep. The two hurlers will both be making their first World Series appearance.

Tonight’s game can certainly throw the momentum in either direction for these teams. If Philadelphia can take a 2-1 lead they get to play the next two games at home with a chance to clinch the title. Yet Tampa has looked like the better team throughout the entire series despite the current 1-1 tie. The Phillies need to hit better with runners in scoring position and the Rays need to continue to put pressure on Philly with their speed.

Either way, this is starting to have the makeup of a very good series.

Friday Thoughts

Posted by twinsmvb on October 24, 2008 under John | Be the First to Comment

Here are my thoughts for Friday, October 24:

  • Bill James, a pioneer in statistical analysis and a baseball mastermind, ranked the Minnesota Twins #1 in terms of youth talent within the organization. Certainly an item of note! James ranked Joe Mauer, Delmon Young, Justin Morneau, Kevin Slowey, Scott Baker, Carlos Gomez, Nick Blackburn, Jason Kubel, Denard Span, and Glen Perkins in the top 150 young players. ”The average team has five players in the top 150; the Twins have 10,” James said.
  • In an announcement that is close to home for me, the Twins announced that Daktronics Inc., based out of my hometown Brookings, SD, will construct the new scorebard for Target Field set to open in 2010. The board will be the 4th biggest in Major League Baseball. You got to love the idea of a 101 x 57 foot HDTV!
  • Matt Garza gets the start in game 3 of the World Series. He’s looked great during these playoffs, but I feel that for every great game he pitches on the national stage Bill Smith and Twins fans feel more and more compelled to trade Delmon Young. I admit being a fan of the Cain rumors, you can read my comments below on Brett’s post, but you got to have a short term memory as a general manager and as a fan. Because don’t get me started on David Ortiz!
  • The Seattle Mariners announced their new GM, Jack Zuduriencik, who is known for his great drafts and scouting success. In this article, Rob Neyer, uses the Minnesota Twins as a great example of what the Mariners could be with a new approach. In contrast to the Seattle organization Neyer says, “What happens if you take the Twins’ scouting success and add $40 million to the budget?” Good question Rob??? I do think this new rebuilding, youth emphasis in Seattle may make it easier for the Twins to pry Adrian Beltre out of Seattle.

Delmon Young and Matt Cain

Posted by twinsmvb on October 22, 2008 under John | 3 Comments to Read

MLB Trade Rumors has a a Twins-related Trade Rumor that has gotten a bit of discussion elsewhere also: Delmon Young for Matt Cain, a SF Giants RHP who just turned 24 and has pitched ~200 innings/year in 2006-2008 after coming up at the end of 2005 (yes, he was 20 then). Cain’s career ERA is 3.74,

Discussion of this rumor has ranged wildly, and I believe troublingly. My hypothesis at the outset was that this might be a good trade for both sides, but then having looked closer, I felt it would be a mistake for the Twins. Finally, after discussing this with my brother Mark (his thoughts at the bottom), I’m now interested again. So here’s my closer look at Delmon Young and Matt Cain (along with a few other trade-pieces). Your thoughts and comments are quite appreciated (especially any Giants fans out there).

Preliminary Summary
Matt Cain is a great young pitcher and could be a good fit for the Twins. A trade of Delmon Young and Boof Bonser for Matt Cain seems to be a fair deal for both sides. Matt Cain and Delmon Young are both young, cheap, and productive players with upside (though neither has lived up to expectations or reached their projected numbers yet).


Matt Cain

The question for me surrounds whether Cain can be a #2 or higher starter. People who consider him as good as Lincecum or King Felix need to recheck their numbers. Right now in comparing the oppositional hitting, I don’t see Cain as being as good as some pitchers the Twins already have: Liriano, Baker, and Slowey. Therefore, anyone who expects the Twins to trade one of those three along with anyone else seems foolish (at least to me).

Delmon Young
The question about Delmon Young is whether he can live up to his projected production.

In terms of Twins bloggers, Aaron Gleeman thought when the Twins acquired him and still thinks Delmon projects worse than most other analysts and hopeful Twins fans, and Nick Nelson is telling people not to sell low (and give up on) Delmon just yet. And Seth says we should keep all the OF/DH options and put a rotation in play.

So what does this mean?
The questions for Twins fans should be: Is (a) Delmon good enough to be trade bait for a good pitcher, while remaining (b) not so good that the Twins hate Bill Smith for trading him away? I think he probably fits well between these two concerns. I think he might not be quite proven enough to get Cain straight up (and most commenting fans at MLBTR seem to agree). Projecting the value of pitchers and hitters on the same metric is almost impossible (at least for me), but because of their similar ages, time the team has cheap control of the player, performances, and upsides, I think that the two aren’t too far off. In other words, I don’t think getting Cain will require too much more than Delmon and an MLB ready starting pitcher.

If the Giants require a pitcher of some sort to go with a batter like Delmon, I might choose to part with Perkins first, but I’d be fine with Boof. In fact, the Giants may prefer Perkins, but they would be wise to choose Boof. Here’s a simple explanation of why:

Cain’s ERA (like Perkins’) looks good, but both Cain and Perkins lose a lot when you consider fielding independent variables like tRA and xFIP. On the other hand, Boof would be expected to do better than he has. Additionally, Cain’s Swinging Strike% looks better than these three Twins (and similar to Liriano, Baker, and Slowey), but he’s in the National League facing pitchers, which appears to bump up this percent. Cain throws hard (FB = 92.4mph compared to Baker at 90.7 and Blackburn at 91.2), so it’s no wonder that he throws more balls and has a worse K/BB ration than any of the Twins except Perkins. The biggest thing that stands out is Cain’s K% which is higher than these three Twins and in the range of Liriano, Baker, and Slowey. But Boof’s is better than the other two, which again tells me Boof should be more desirable to the Giants than Perkins or Blackburn.

Balls and Called Strikes
To address this question in more detail, consider the following three charts with Balls and Called Strikes. I find that I can predict good pitchers using these numbers pretty easy. In the AL, a pitcher should get swinging strikes on at least 8% of their pitches and limit their balls to 34% of their pitches. The other options (called strikes, foul balls, and in play) seem to be less important. In the NL, the pitcher should get a higher percentage–maybe 2% higher–of swinging strikes (because they face pitchers a couple times each game).

Note: I color-coded things from green (good) to yellow to red (bad) for some of these stats, just so you can easily pick out what stats I think are important.

ERA, xFIP, and tRA
Now consider a similar set of three charts that shows first the AL, then the NL, then the Twins. As you can see, Liriano, Baker, and Slowey are the Twins’ best pitchers by most metrics, and Boof is probably the fourth. Again, this could be due to Blackburn and Perkins being rookies, but from the Giants’ perspective, that should mean little. They’re just looking for a pitcher to fill out their rotation while picking up a young, cheap, high-upside batter. Boof fits the bill. So does Perkins. So does Blackburn.

I sorted these by the AVG08 (average of xFIP and tRA), but you can see how well these numbers line up with K% and GB%, two good indicators of how well a pitcher is doing. But they also follow the Swinging Strike% numbers pretty closely. The Twins should be worried about Perkins (and maybe Blackburn) if the whole rookie thing isn’t factored in.

Boof Bonser
The unfortunate situation with Boof is that he’s probably out of options with the Twins. I mean that not just from the technical standpoint (he can’t be sent back to the Minors, nor should he be), but also from the organizational standpoint: Boof is probably not going to get another chance to be a starting pitcher with the Twins (though his numbers suggest maybe he should).

In other words, he is a good trading chip for the Twins, a great trading target for any team looking for a good SP option, and someone with whom the Twins ought to recognize as a more valuable trading chip than many fans might realize. Even Tim Dierkes of MLBTradeRumors has Boof as a likely candidate for breaking out next year, especially if he ends up in the NL West.


Glen Perkins

I’ve made my case about Glen Perkins before. Yes, he was a rookie as a starting pitcher this year (having been a late relief guy in ‘06-07). So like Slowey and Baker before him, he could do better next year as he settles in (we can’t expect everyone to take the MLB by storm like Liriano did in 2006). The same thing can be said for Blackburn, who also had a solid rookie season. This is reason enough for avoiding any trade that gets rid of our starting five without bringing in another good pitcher. I get this. But by the numbers, Perkins worries me, as does Blackburn, only more so with Perkins. Besides, if the Giants choose Boof rather than Perkins, the Twins could still trade Perkins to Seattle or Milwaukee to get a left-side infielder (Beltre or Hardy).

Final Summary

Cain does not appear to be a franchise player, much to the chagrin of Giants fans I’m sure. And it reinforces a Young + Boof for Cain or Young + Perkins for Cain deal. So I hold by the earlier comment that Twins fans should be happy enough with this trade.

Most of these trades are going to come down to whether DY or Cain are considered a better player, both in general and for the organization. They are both quite young for their MLB experience. They both have done quite well already in their careers (though neither has performed to the level critics have expected). They both have room to improve (Delmon with power, Cain with a better K/BB ratio). Delmon is not yet a franchise outfielder. Cain is not yet a #1, and to this point has been a stretch at #2, but he seems to be moving toward #2 status. But those are the potential upsides that both have.

Trade Option #1: Straight up: Matt Cain for Delmon Young
MN: Opens OF spot, gets young pitcher, but risky if Young turns out good (this point could be made for all other options)
SF: Upgrades the offense, but downgrades the pitching–very risky if Delmon doesn’t live up to projections (and so far, he hasn’t)

Trade Option #2: Matt Cain for Delmon Young and Boof Bonser
MN: Opens OF spot, gets young pitcher for guy who wasn’t going to get much of a chance with MN
SF: Great chance to improve the offense while possibly getting just as good of a pitcher (though older) in return

Trade Option #3: Matt Cain for Delmon Young and Glen Perkins (or Nick Blackburn)
MN: Opens OF spot, switches young pitchers in a likely upgrade
SF: Upgrades the offense without losing much pitching (pretty good deal, but watch out for Perkins if 2008 was not just a rookie year)

Trade Option #4: Matt Cain for Delmon Young and Kevin Slowey
MN: Opens OF spot, gets young pitcher, but loses young pitcher who is just as good or better (in other words, this is dumb)
SF: This would be a steal

What I hope happens
I’d really like for the Twins to pursue this. I would try Delmon for Cain first, but I’d be quite willing to try Delmon and Boof for Cain. And if my general rule for proposing a trade as a biased party holds (make sure that you feel like the other team has a decent, even good chance of getting the better part of the deal, and that they might therefore make the trade), then I could see this happening.

I’ll let MVB give his take in the comments section since I know he’s been thinking a lot about this possible trade also, but in the mean time, here’s my brother’s take.

Mark Werner’s Analysis

I’ve always been a big fan of Cain (though this might be because he was a nice fantasy pickup when he was the best pitcher with so few wins). I would generally be in favor of trading for years 24, 25, and 26 of Cain.

First, Cain is younger than any of the current twins rotation, already has years of MLB experience, and still seems to be improving each year.

Second, his deficiencies could well be ameliorated by the twins system. He pitches much like Baker with the only downside being his high walk rate, something the pitching staff could easily temper.

Third, while his xFIP isn’t too appealing, his FIP is excellent. This is due to him having a very low HR/Fly ratio. Can he keep this up? I would argue yes. Cain has consistently defied the weight of xFIP, in his four years, always being around a point below with his FIP. Remember, xFIP is still an experimental stat. Some pitchers can keep flyballs in the ballpark and some can’t. And it’s not just pitching in SanFran since Cain’s road HR rates are similar. You see similar defiance of xFIP in pitchers like Oswalt, Pedro, and Lackey until this year.

Fourth, his pitching style suits the Twins. If Cain keeps flyballs in the park, his high flyball rate plays right into our defence of Gomez and Span. So it’s likely his ERA would drop with an exceptional outfield backing him up, catching more balls and turning some doubles into singles.

Of course, some people out there would say Cain isn’t a pitcher that can win, being just 15-30 in the last two years. But as your spreadsheet shows, his run support has been awful.

I made a spreadsheet with the most similar 7 pitching lines to Cain’s own from the last two years.

From that, you could expect Cain to go 14-8 with average run support, flipping his 1 to 2 win to loss ratio around. On the spreadsheet, you also see Cain pitching solid seasons comparable to much older pitchers. Danks probably had the most similar year to Cain this year. I would argue he is already a #2 starter, potentially joining Liriano, Slowey, and Baker as legit top-end starters. I wouldn’t consider Boof, Blackburn, or Perkins at that level.

World Series Game 1

Posted by twinsmvb on under John | Be the First to Comment

Here we go, the moment 30 teams have been working for since last February. Alas, only two teams can be here. And I can honestly call anyone a bold face liar if they would have predicted those two teams to be the Philadelphia Phillies and the Tampa Bay Rays.

Tonight’s matchup pits a pair of stud lefties against each other. The NLCS MVP, Cole Hamels, for the Phillies and the Rays 24-year old “veteran,” Scott Kazmir. 
I picked Kazmir to be my series MVP (see below) so I need him to have a good game. If the Rays can beat Hamels in game 1 they will be in the driver seat for the rest of this series, but if the Phillies can win a huge game 1 on the road that would be even bigger. You can predict your World Series winner with the poll on the sidebar.
Only time will tell…

MVB’s World Series Predictions

Posted by twinsmvb on October 21, 2008 under Dain | Be the First to Comment

The 2009 World Series will mark the first fall classic for this blog, so to honor this event we brought the whole team out to make their bold predictions for the series.

MVB
Winner: Tampa Bay – 5 games  MVP: Scott Kazmir
Major League Baseball’s feel good story will be feeling good after a quick 5 game series. The Rays not only represent the superior American League, but they had to battle a great Red Sox club through 7 games as 
well as prove over the course of 162 games that they were for real in the toughest division in baseball despite having a meager payroll. 
Great to see former Twins Matt Garza, Jason Bartlett, and Grant Balfour all play key roles for this young club. The star of this series though is the franchise leader in wins, Scott Kazmir. Kazmir pitches 2 gems to win the MVP. Upton and Longoria both hit 3 homeruns each.

Brett Werner

Winner: Tampa Bay – 6 games  MVP: BJ Upton

Just like the Twins have Mauer as a great batter at an otherwise weak batting position, the Phillies have Utley and J-Ro at weak batting positions in the field (to go with Burrell and Howard, not to mention Victorino who is having a great postseason). This gives them a dramatic advantage against other NL teams.

But the Rays are no NL team: they have a stronger overall bullpen than Philadelphia (who have Lidge et rien) even if the closer position may be falling to Price in the WS. And they have as good or better hitters at nearly every position, guys who can get to anyone except maybe Hamels. I give the Rays’ starters a big edge once you get past the Phillies’ ace.

The Phillies are better rested, but obviously that didn’t help last year’s Rockies. Two off days is more than enough for the Rays to recover.

The Rays have been on a run all year, have been on the verge of losing it for most of the last month or two, and they haven’t yet. I don’t think they lose it now. 

Mark Werner
Winner: Tampa Bay – 5 games     MVP: James Shields
The Phillies may have a strong, bopping offense but, if their inter-league games are any preview, they will struggle against the Rays rotation. Although it is a small sample size, the Phillies batted just .220 against the American League this year for an OPS of .682. The Phillies lost every series against AL teams, finishing 4-11. On the flip side, the Rays were 12-6 against the NL. While the Phillies were busy getting shut-out by the Rangers, the Rays were sweeping the Cubs. 

Like the Rockies last year who had a payroll 66% below league average, the Rays arrive at the final stage having a payroll 50% below major league average–and one fifth the size of the long-idle, much-maligned Yankees. Unlike the Rockies, the Rays will prevail, taking the series in 5 games. Where the Rockies were overdependent on their thin-air hitting, the Rays have a sturdier foundation in their pitching: a young rotation and an experienced bullpen capped by a talented rising star in Price.

In stark contrast to the Twins, the Phillies slug 40 points higher against LHP. Unfortunately, the Rays rotation features just one lefty in Kazmir. Righties Shields and Garza will combine for three wins. Your World Series MVP: James Shields (and not the semi-transient 19th century senator from Minnesota)

DY21

Winner: Tampa Bay – 7 games  MVP: Evan Longoria

As college basketball analyst Dickie V says, “They got the big M.O. baby!” M.O. referring to momentum, and its ironic Dick Vitale is arguably the biggest Tampa Bay fan on this planet. Therefore I gotta say the Rays win this series in 7 games. The World Series MVP goes to boy wonder Evan Longoria.

PS. Is anybody else sick of EVERY ANALYST saying the key part to the Delmon for Garza trade was Jason Bartlett because he “shores up the Tampa defense?” He is terrible at short! He led all AL ss in errors for the Twins in 2007, and seems to make errors in every other game in the playoffs! I just don’t get it, but it is nice to see two former Twins playing key roles in the playoffs.

Dain TePoel


Winner: Philadelphia – 7 games MVP: Cole Hamels

I hate to say it, but I want to be the guy who takes a chance on the Underdog in this situation….But really, the Phillies? World Series Champs? They haven’t played a game in a long time, especially by Wednesday.

Hmm…I’ll roll with it.

Feel free to leave your predictions for series winner and MVP in the comments section.