According to reports by FoxSports.com’s John Paul Morosi, the Twins are still looking for a middle infielder, which is hardly surprising considering just one member of Game 163’s infield (Michael Cuddyer, Nick Punto, Orlando Cabrera, and Matt Tolbert) is likely to be in the starting infield next season. Sure, their projected 2010 infield (Justin Morneau, Alexi Casilla, J.J. Hardy, and Punto) is better in some places, but it’s weaker in others and not much better overall as a result.
What was surprising about Morosi’s report is that the Twins are also in the market for a fifth starter. I, like many writers, felt like the signing of Carl Pavano would more or less take the Twins out of the running for another arm. After all, the Twins have the top four set and a number of arms waiting to take the fifth spot.
It seems unlikely that Glen Perkins will return to the rotation after his well chronicled falling out with the team over his penchant for hiding injuries, then pitching terribly, and blaming the previously undisclosed injury for his abhorrent performance. If he’s even with the organization when camps break in a little over 90 days, I’ll be surprised.
Brian Duensing pitched extremely well down the stretch, far better than anyone thought he would. In his eight starts from August 22 to the end of the season, he went 5-1 with a 2.64 ERA and a WHIP of 1.3 in 47.2 innings. He struck out 31 and induced a ton of groundballs, which help him pitch around the batters he did allow to reach.
Anthony Swarzak was a reasonably well thought-of prospect, and he showed that promise on occasion, but his 2009 was by and large a disappointing effort. His fastball, change, and curveball all ranked as below average pitches, with his curve nearly five runs below average. He could slot in as a fifth starter if the Twins needed him to, and for many teams he’d fill that role decently, but he’s no better than the third best option for the fifth slot.
Jeff Manship made five starts at the end of the season, none bigger than his first—a five inning, one-run effort against the White Sox on September 1. While he may make a few appearances in spring training, it’s unlikely that he’ll break camp with the team.
Four arms loosely breaking down into two decent options and two prospects not yet ready. If these were the Twins’ options, a veteran arm might not be a bad idea (though as noted earlier, Jarrod Washburn is not an option worth pursuing). But there’s another player in this mix, one that has caused fans and prognosticators alike more headaches in the last two seasons than nearly any other player in baseball. The Twins other fifth starter option is none other than Capt. E. Nigma himself: Francisco Liriano.
Starting back in 2006 does more harm than good at this point. Liriano will never be that pitcher again. The question is if he can even be the pitcher who was nearly a win above replacement in 2008 despite throwing just 76 big-league innings.
His return from Tommy John surgery in 2008 was a study in patience as he began the year poorly, improved after being sent down to AAA, then went 6-1 with a 2.74 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP over 65.2 innings. His nearly 3-1 K/BB ratio was augmented by a low HR rate and a good GB/FB ratio. There’s good reason why the 2009 Baseball Prospectus Annual listed him as likely to be the ace of the staff in the coming season.
His 2009 was a regression par excellence; disappointing to say the least. He gave up three runs or more as many times in April alone as he did in his final 11 starts of 2008. Cold weather struggles are nothing new for Liriano, so hope that he’d bounce back was far from misplaced, and as May began, it looked like he might be waking up from a winter’s nap that had simply lasted too long. It didn’t take, however, as continued to struggle to string two good starts together. But that’s the key: from the press he received, you’d think Liriano was consistently bad, when in fact his problem was consistency. He had a number of very good starts—some amongst the best the Twins got all season, but he also gave them two of their ten worst starts (for what it’s worth, Glen Perkins was responsible for both the worst and second-worst start the Twins received all year, as well as another in the bottom 10).
It’s not hard to see what happened to Liriano that caused him to falter so badly: his fastball, which has never been his best pitch, fell from 3.6 runs below average to a shockingly bad 25.6 runs below average despite rising in velocity from an average of 90.9 MPH in 2008 to 91.7 in 2009. Not only did the pitch get worse, he threw it more often, making an already bad situation even worse.
Still, even with the limits on his slider placed in order to keep his arm healthy, Liriano has some of the best stuff of any of the potential starters on the staff. His slider is still an above average offering, especially since he’s eliminated the “bad slider” that he was using to set up his good one. His change, too, is a solid offering, giving him two plus secondary pitches essentially without a foundation. If he can get his fastball back to even the level it was at in 2008 (bad, but closer to average), his two secondary offerings will play that much better, and he should resume his previous effectiveness.
This all brings us to his most recent outings. In his first four starts for Escogido in the Dominican Winter League leave him with a line of 16.2 IP, 11 H, 2 ER, 3 BB, 20 K, a 1.08 ERA, a 0.84 WHIP, and especially encouraging are the 20/3 K/BB ratio and the 12.4 K/9. A grain of salt would be good when reading these numbers, as the DWL includes players at every level of the minors, as well as the majors. He’s induced 18 swinging strikeouts to just two looking, and while hard PFX data isn’t readily available, it seems fair to assume that his fastball isn’t getting hammered and that his slider has plenty of bite.
Counting on Liriano to be the ace of the staff is foolish, but they don’t need an ace—Scott Baker will be much better next year after an already decent 2009. Counting on him to be an innings-eater is foolish, but they don’t need an innings-eater—Carl Pavano, Nick Blackburn, and Baker all threw 200 innings. What they are looking for is a fifth starter in the truest sense of the term, someone who can take the ball every fifth day and give the team a chance to win. Liriano can be so much more than that if he reestablishes his foundation such that the Twins don’t have to worry about him giving them a two-inning stinker.
The Twins would be foolish to give up on Liriano at this point, he’s just 26 and has electric stuff when it’s on. Worst case scenario, he struggles again and the Twins go to Duensing or Swarzak; all that’s lost is time and maybe a game or two early in the season. The more likely scenario is that Liriano finds some comfort with his changeup, reestablishes his fastball, and continues to utilize a top-flight slider to post a much better 2010 than his 2009. He’ll never regain 2006’s majesty, but even a return to 2008’s performance will make the Twins a much better team than adding a Jarrod Washburn, Doug Davis, or most any other free agent arm within the Twins’ price range.
First, I wanted to say Happy Holidays to all Twins MVB readers. I hope everyone has enjoyed this time with their family and friends. Secondly, I wanted to apologize for my lack of posting and Twins talk lately. It’s been a quiet winter for the Twins and a busy winter for me. But I have some exciting things planned for Twins MVB in 2010 so stay tuned for more updates.
I typically don’t like to simply post content from other baseball writers and this story is actually an ESPN Insider article, but hopefully Buster won’t mind. Reading this got me awfully excited for Target Field. Don’t miss what Buster says at the end about his excitement for “Bullseye Ballpark.”
Let’s dispense with the obvious, so we can move on: There are going to be baseball games in the Twins’ new outdoor ballpark that will be played in abominable conditions. As in, conditions best suited for an abominable snowman.
The players will be dressed like Mount Everest climbers, with everything but their eyes covered. Fans will carry large blankets and sink underneath them like buffalo in snow drifts. Under the blankets, they will talk about watching games in similar conditions in the old Metropolitan Stadium — Vikings games, actually, when Bud Grant stoically walked the sidelines and breathed clouds.
But yes, baseball will be played in Minnesota — outdoors, for the first time since 1981. And for most of the year, it should be glorious.
These pictures of the Twins’ new ballpark were apparently posted about six weeks ago, but I saw them for the first time this morning. Courtesy of the St. Paul Pioneer Press, here’s a panoramic shot of Target Field from behind home plate, from right field and from left field.
Can’t wait; as I mentioned the other day, I can’t remember looking forward to seeing a new park this much since the day Camden Yards opened. And I’d bet I’m not alone in that sentiment.
What are you most excited about at Target Field? Let me know in the comment section.
Even though Chone Figgins, Placido Polanco, and Pedro Feliz have been signed to play third base, the market is far from depleted. Free Agents like from Adrian Beltre to Troy Glaus are still teamless, which would be more surprising but for last year’s Type-A debacle where players like Orlando Hudson and Juan Cruz remained on the market long after the winter meetings.
This year, John Lackey is probably the biggest name to be signed so far, but Matt Holliday and Jason Bay remain in the aether, and even a top trade target like Dan Uggla can be had for the right price. Teams are simply willing to wait longer and see how the market develops rather than risk paying last year’s prices for an early shot at players (call it Raul Ibanez Syndrome).
The Twins are pioneers for this way of thinking, frequently signing players late in the offseason, with Joe Crede being the perfect example. Rather than bid against themselves, the Twins waited until Scott Boras could no longer pretend there was competing interest in his client, and the Twins were able to sign the player they wanted to a contract that was fair for both parties.
What should be somewhat surprising is that with a wide number of players available, some to sign and some to be acquired via trade, is that the Twins are already looking at option L on their offseason plan.
It isn’t too hard to see how the Twins got here: Adrian Beltre is likely to be too expensive, Mark DeRosa’s contract demands (3-years, 27 Million) are out of control given his age, the Marlins’ demands for Dan Uggla are ridiculous, so on and so forth ad infinitum. At the end of the day, we are where we are: Kevin Kouzmanoff.
There’s a lot of ground to cover with Kouz. His career OPS+ of 103 tells a lot about him, especially since it’s composed of a little over three years: one above average (110), a smattering below average (77 in 61 PAs with Cleveland), and two years of dead-on avereage (100). That’s a fair assessment of Kouzmanoff’s offensive contributions, a career .261/.308/.435 hitter isn’t bad at all—he shouldn’t be your team’s best player, but if he’s your worst, you’ve got a solid team.
And this is where the waters begin to murky. Proponents of Kouzmanoff will gleefully point out that he has accumulated that line—solid but unspectacular—in a park so pitcher friendly it’s the architectural equivalent of a home plate umpire with a five foot wide strike zone. And it’s true, Kouzmanoff’s career home/road split is non-trivial: .236/.287/.388 with 25 HR at Pecto compared to .284/.328/.477 with 37 HR elsewhere. 2009 saw the gulf widen to .220/.280/.382 and .287/.323/.455. This is all to say that Kouz looks like a much better hitter, indeed a good one, when he was anywhere but San Diego. And if there’s one thing I’m sure of in this crazy world, it’s that Minneapolis is not San Deigo.
So the Twins would be getting the road warrior who just needs a real ballpark to play in to become a star, right? Not quite. Using Baseball Reference’s Neutralized Batting tool, we can see exactly how Kouz would have looked in the Dome over his career and last season in particular. His career line bumps up to .271/.319/.449, while his 2009 goes to .261/.308/.426; it’s not a perfect system, but that’s a pretty good reference point, and it draws into perfect relief my complaint with Kouzmanoff: he never walks. Ever.
You may think this is hyperbole, but look at is this way: Kouzmanoff strikes out nearly four times more than he walks (K/BB of 4.03) whereas the average major league strikes out just twice for every walk drawn (K/BB of 2.02). His strikeout numbers are just about average, so the discrepancy comes from an incredibly low walk total. He jogged to first in just 4.7% of his PAs, again, well below the league average of 8.9%.
Consider for a moment Delmon Young, whose inability to let four consecutive bad pitches pass him by is legendary, posted a 2009 line of .284/.308/.425, disarmingly similar to Kouz’s projected line. Sure, Kouz would have walked a little more, but in the end a .308 OBP is what it is. Only 14 players who qualified for the batting title posted an OBP lower than .308; it is a very bad on-base percentage.
Bringing in Kouzmanoff isn’t exactly like adding another Young to the lineup, Kouz’s defense is above average, so he brings that to the table. His UZR over the last two seasons, 2.7 and 7.5, has been just fine, and indications are that he’s even improving at the position. He’s better in every way offensively than Joe Crede was, but doesn’t quite play defense at that level. He was worth 2.5 wins last season to Crede’s 1, so he’s an upgrade, but given that Crede missed 71 games, that’s not a difficult feat to accomplish.
But despite all these reasons, this rumor passes the smell test—in no way do I see this being farfetched or impossible. Why? Kouzmanoff is cheap in all the right ways. He’s a value-add, a guy who, as I noted above, is an asset to the team, but he’s only in his first year of arbitration, meaning he’d be with the team for at least three years at below market value. Since he is such an average player, his arb award wouldn’t be too much to handle either. Better still, the Padres are willing to accept Glen Perkins as part of a package for Kouz, meaning one less headache/arb case for the team to worry about.
Had that been the deal, Perkins for Kouz, I’d be all over it. That’s a nothing for something swap, it doesn’t matter if the something is your ideal piece, it was free. However, the Padres want Perkins AND, with the name following the ‘and’ unknown as of yet. Who the second player ends up being will strongly influence how this perspective deal is interpreted.
Let’s, for a moment, say that J.J. Hardy regains a reasonably high OBP, perhaps slightly better than his career .323 line, in the .340 range he was in, in 2008. The Twins then need a player to break up the lefties in their lineup, play good defense, and hit 6/7 in the order. Kouzmanoff makes perfect sense in this scenario as he does all of these things at a reasonable price.
However, since it’s unlikely that Hardy will hit that career high mark in the year in which he hops to the more difficult league, Kouzmanoff simply doesn’t fit the way the Twins top target should. If, at the end of the day, the market is laid bare, then perhaps he’ll make more sense as a secondary option or if the Pads agree to a deal involving Perkins and little else. However, as the market is currently well stocked with better options—prices yet unknown—and the Fathers don’t look desperate enough to move Kouz for such a low price. We can revisit this idea in a month or so if need be, but for the time being, the Twins should be looking elsewhere.
There had been some speculation ranging from sensible to outlandish about who the Twins would and would not tender contracts to. Jesse Crain’s large potential salary made him a real possibility, but there was never a chance of Delmon Young getting non-tendered, sorry haters.
One thing that is sure now that the Twins have tendered contracts to everyone who lacked one, is that the Twins’ bullpen is, barring injuries in camp, pretty much set. It looks quite like it did at the end of last season with one major change: Ron Mahay has departed, destination unknown, and will be replaced by Pat Neshek.
The number listed after ERA is the player’s WXRL or Wins Expected above Replacement Level. Using the expected runs matrix to determine how many runs an average pitcher would allow in any given situation, it measures how many runs a specific reliever prevented and how he changed the win probability. This particular iteration of the stat not only evaluates a pitcher against replacement level, but also weights the quality of hitters he faced. The best pitcher in the league this year was Mo Rivera with a 6.1 WXRL, and anything below 0 is considered to be worse than any of the freely available talent (average ML free agent or AAA pitcher).
Players are listed loosely in descending order of WXRL, with Crain’s second half improvement and Brian Duensing’s conversion to the rotation duly noted.
Joe Nathan (RHP, 47 Saves, 2.10 ERA, 5.158 WXRL)
The closer extraordinaire returns for another season with the Twins. He was 2-2 with a 2.10 ERA and a WHIP of .93 while converting 47 of 52 save opportunities. His 47 saves were a career high, though he threw just 68.2 innings. Look for a similar amount of innings, especially if Jesse Crain seems capable in close 8th inning spots (more on this later).
After a slipup against the Yankees in Game Two of the ALCS, Nathan was the subject of trade shouts, the vast majority of which were insane. You can make a case for dropping that salary, but the lack of a suitable replacement makes removing the Twins’ most consistent reliever a really poor idea. Nathan has been as good as any reliever in baseball over the last few seasons, posting a top 10 WXRL every year since 2006, a claim made by no other closer—not even Mo Rivera. He’s never been the best, but he’s still pretty special.
Matt Guerrier (RHP, 5-1, 2.36 ERA, 3.478 WXRL)
Guerrier’s nose dive from August 1, 2008 to the end of the season was one of the things that hurt the Twins most as their quest for the playoffs came up just short. He posted an ERA of 10.06 and a WHIP of 2.28 in 19.2 innings, simply horrid numbers that shook a lot of the confidence fans had in him.
2009 could not have been more different for Matty G, as he became the Twins’ 8th inning man of choice for most of the season. He dropped his ERA nearly three runs from 5.19 to 2.36 and his WHIP, 0.96, was below 1 for the first time in his career. Even though he once again lead the league in appearances with 79, he didn’t completely fall apart the way he had in 2008. He was as reliable a bridge to Joe Nathan as the Twins could have possibly wanted, so much so that for much of the season, games felt seven innings long—if Guerrier and Nathan got a lead, they probably held it.
There is a chance that Guerrier will retain his 8th inning duties, but as noted previously, my sense is that the Twins would like to have Crain in that role, if for no other reason than Guerrier can pitch effectively for more than one inning, whereas Crain tends to struggle if extended much past his first inning of work.
Jose Mijares (LHP, 2-2, 2.34 ERA, 3.425 WXRL)
Thought to be a lock to make the team out of Spring Training, Mijares’ lackluster effort found him back in AAA to open the year, but his time-out in Rochester was short lived—he made his season debut on April 22. Mijares clearly showed the effects of his highest innings total since 2007 as he faded badly in September and October. The best thing he did in autumn was get Delmon Young hit in the back, which more or less caused him to fugue. That’s the bad news.
The good news is that up until fatigue set in, Mijares was among the best left-handed specialists in baseball. He held fellow Flanderses to a .155/.228/.252 line, while right-handers hit him much harder: .283/.358/.433 to be exact. A really good LOOGY is never a bad thing to have on your roster, but if that’s all the more Mijares becomes, it will be a little bit of a disappointment. He’ll be the Twins’ primary weapon against tough lefties, but don’t be surprised if Gardy elects to use him as a mop-up man against righties to see if he can begin to get them out more effectively than he did last year. That goal will, of course, need to be balanced against the desire for Mijares to be more effective in the late season than he was last year, but that’s what a manager is for.
Jon Rauch (RHP, 5-1, 1.72 ERA, 0.574 WXRL)
The first Twin with a neck tattoo was acquired from Arizona in exchange for Kevin Mulvey, making him an honorary member of the Johan Santana trade. In 17 appearances with the Twins, Rauch posted a 1.72 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP—better than he had done with Arizona, but that should hardly surprise anyone considering how hitter-friendly Bank Whatever Park is. Rauch isn’t a great pitcher, but he took over for a downright terrible one, so he looked better by comparison. As a short relief option, Rauch will be an upgrade over the last season’s mistakes, but since the Twins already have a LOOGY, he’ll have to improve his efforts as far as getting sternsiders out in order to be really valuable.
Jesse Crain (RHP, 7-4, 4.70 ERA, -0.598 WXRL)
I don’t think I’ve ever been so sure of anything in my entire life than I was that Jesse Crain would lose the Twins’ June 14th game against the Cubs in Wrigley Field. Two singles, a walk, and a single to right later, I was right. To that point, Crain had appeared in 23 games, posting an 8.15 ERA and a WHIP of 1.9. Opposing hitters had a .306/.400/.500 line against him—put another way, he turned every hitter he faced into someone a little bit better than Chase Utley. Jesse Crain was epically bad.
In that way, the fiasco against the Cubs was one of the best things that happened to the Twins. Sure, a game was lost, but Crain’s meltdown was enough to get him demoted.
When he came back on July 23rd, Crain was back to his old self. In 34 regular season innings, Crain posted a 2.91 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP, while holding hitters to a .217/.324/.292 line. That’s indicative of a few too many walks, but when opponents aren’t hitting much more than singles off of you, you can afford to walk a few. From Aug. 25 to September 30, Crain gave up no runs and was generally unhittable.
So, Jesse Crain is back…back as he ever was anyway. His fastball is back up near 94-95 MPH and his slider is getting back to the high 80s. He’s gotten good horizontal break with the slider, but the vertical action is still lacking, and that’s what will determine whether it’s an effective pitch or if it’ll be a hanging pitch—the equivalent of a batting practice fastball.
In the Twins’ bullpen wet dream, Crain’s slider gains a little more bite, he walks a handful fewer batters, and emerges as a lockdown 8th inning reliever as a bridge between Guerrier/Rauch and Joe Nathan. In reality, it’s Crain’s spot to lose in lieu of a better option. Should someone emerge as a viable option in camp, there may be more of a set-up man by committee. However, as it stands now, it’s hard to see anyone besides Crain wearing the 8th inning mantle.
Brian Duensing (LHP, 5-2, 3.64 ERA, -0.183 WXRL)
More of a placeholder than anything, Duensing could easily be replaced with Anthony Swarzak, Francisco Liriano, Glen Perkins, or Jeff Manship. No matter who takes this spot, their job will be to be the long-man, taking over for whichever starter doesn’t have his good stuff one day. My hunch is that Liriano gets the fifth spot in the rotation for sheer potential (he has the best stuff of anyone on staff, just needs to remember how to use it) but Duensing gets this spot as a hat-tip for his work down the stretch in 2009. If Liriano looks shaky, Duensing has shown himself to be capable of taking the ball for 5+ innings, which should be more than enough to keep the rest of the bullpen from tiring out.
Duensing seems better suited for this long relief role than a starting spot, though he certainly pitched well enough last season to warrant a long look in camp. His performance in 2009 wasn’t lucky, per se, his BABIP was right around league average, and his strandrate was a little higher than normal but hardly out of control. Most of the thought that he’ll regress is based on the fact that he outpitched his xFIP and QERA by a pretty fair margin, both are designed to show what a pitcher’s ERA should have been, or perhaps what he deserved to have.
However, it’s important to note that both of those systems favor strikeout pitchers over those that induce contact, which makes sense—a poorly struck ball can still slip through a hole, but a swing and a miss is what it is. Duensing and Nick Blackburn are both guys who induce a lot of weak contact, which isn’t as reliable as someone who strikes out a lot of hitters, but may still be a repeatable skill. If his groundball rate, currently 45.5% were up over 50%, I’d give him a much higher chance of sustaining his low ERA. As it stands, I’m concerned enough about his ability to be a solid starter for a full season to slot him in as a reliever, know that he’s option A1 as soon as someone in the rotation is ineffective or gets injured.
He did accumulate that negative WXRL over the course of 24 relief appearances, a nontrivial sample, so perhaps the Twins will take their chances and put him back in the rotation. We’ll have to wait and see.
Bobby Keppel (RHP, 1-1, 4.83 ERA, 0.279 WXRL)
Keppel’s a last vestige of so many experiments that didn’t work last year. R.A. Dickey, Sean Henn, were others who nearly sundered the Twins’ season in the early part of the season, yet it was Craig Breslow who ended up on another team at season’s end. You can argue about whether or not that was the right move, but one thing is for sure: the Twins need a better option than Bobby Keppel. As things stand now, Keppel figures to see a fair number of short-relief appearances, especially without Pat Neshek for the first part of the season. The appearance of Jon Rauch certainly helps to limit Keppel’s appearances, but he certainly can’t carry the load alone.
Keppel’s 2009 season was by far his best, but he still posted a 1.56 WHIP and a 4.83 ERA as opponents hit .297/.369/.443 off of him. With both Rauch and Mijares vastly superior against lefties, it is fortunate that Keppel is more effective against righties: .278/.360/.426 vs. .317/.379/.462, which would give him a matchup advantage, if his performance against righties wasn’t objectively poor.
Keppel started off with 11.1 scoreless innings, and gave up just one in his first 14 innings of work, but he gave up multiple runs in an appearance twice as often as he gave up just a single run. If it rained, it poured, and that’s not a good attribute for a reliever whose job is to minimize damage, not further open the floodgates. As noted in my analysis of Brian Duensing, the Twins do have a few other options if they want someone who can throw multiple innings, which they may elect to do if no one emerges during spring training.
Pat Neshek (No 2009 line—Injured)
Without question, the biggest puzzle in the Twins’ pen and someone who will likely start the season continuing his rehab in the minors before joining the club at a date defined by both his preparedness and the Twins’ need. Neshek hasn’t pitched in the majors since May 8, 2008, when he left his appearance with what was thought to be a right elbow strain.
One Tommy John surgery later, Neshek should finally be ready to return in 2010. If his delivery was anything resembling normal, projecting his effectiveness would be much easier. Next season would likely be a little rough but 2011should see him back to his old self. However, Neshek’s delivery doesn’t even register on the normal scale, so making a guess as to how effective he’ll be is difficult. Injury guru Will Carroll correctly notes that his odd delivery didn’t help him avoid the injury in the first place, so his delivery certainly won’t make it easier to come back. If he can avoid a subsequent shoulder injury, he could be ok, but if this is the start of a long series of arm injuries, Neshek may be a non-factor for several seasons to come.
Take Away
The Twins are in a better position than they were last year at this time—assuming Jesse Crain is better than R.A. Dickey and assuming that Pat Neshek is better than Crain’s first few months were as the token “fresh off surgery arm”. They still aren’t anything resembling an elite unit unless someone like Swarzak makes the move from starting to relief, and does so very well. Here, like clockwork, I expect at least a comment or two regarding Anthony Slama and/or Rob Delaney. It’s not that I dislike these two, I think there’s a good chance that one or both becomes a decent major league reliever, but there’s a reason neither appeared on anyone’s top 10 prospect list and haven’t for a couple years. I’ve been told by multiple sources that they are among the most overvalued prospects in the Twins’ system, which doesn’t make them bad, but does mean that tempered expectations would be virtuous. Are they likely to be better than R.A. Dickey? Yes, but so is your baby cousin. Are they likely to be better than Keppel? That’s a little less certain. Keppel actually has pretty decent AAA numbers, in some cases better than both Slama and Delaney, so it’s a question of whose game can translate to the Show best, and that’s something we won’t know until we see it.
(Ed. note: According to reports from various sources, Pavano is almost certain to accept arbitration, and the Brewers are pursuing Randy Wolf.)
The Winter Meetings kicked off this morning, and while no blockbusters have been reported as of yet, the buzz has been quite good regarding players like Curtis Granderson, Brad Penny, Milton Bradley, and even Edwin Jackson. The Twins are traditionally lesser players this time of year, 2007 excepted, but that hardly dampens the fun of watching deals get made and forecasting which teams will come out winners in the annual Great Trade Melee.
While they may not be generating much buzz, the Twins are eagerly waiting to hear from Carl Pavano as to whether or not he’ll accept their offer of arbitration. Reports are that Pavano would like to capitalize on last year’s strong finish by signing a two-year deal, but that teams, including the Twins, are more interested in a one-year pact. Pavano said on a number of occasions that he liked pitching for the Twins and liked the staff, so, if everything else is equal, he’ll likely come back to the Twins by accepting arbitration.
However, if he feels he can get that second year from another team, he’s likely to sign with them for the added financial security. While most of the reports now have him leaning toward accepting the Twins’ offer, I find it hard to believe that a team like the Brewers, so badly in need of pitching, wouldn’t take a chance on the second year and sign him if given the chance. He may have to wait until the market bottoms out for them to realize it, but Pavano is a solid option in what has become a very, very shallow market for pitching.
John Lackey is the cream of the crop, said to be a target of the Mets if the Angels can’t resign him, but below him is a precipitous drop off. Eric Bedard and Rich Harden are unbelievably talented pitchers, but both carry such substantial injury risks that they aren’t likely to get much in terms of money or years. Harden has the advantage of having had a fairly healthy 2009, so he’s probably the second best arm on the market. Bedard, Bill Bavasi’s grandest folly, hasn’t made 20 starts in a season since 2007 and made just 30 starts in 2008 and 2009 combined. One could add Ben Sheets to the list of talented-but-injured-aces, as he missed all of 2009 following surgery.
The Third Estate is comprised of veteran arms, third starter types: Justin Duchsherer, Doug Davis, Jose Contreras, and of course, Carl Pavano. Given the quality of those around him, it would be hard to believe anyone but the three pitchers above (Lackey, Sheets, Harden) would be a much more attractive option than Pavano would be. That doesn’t guarantee that he’ll get the deal he wants, but all it takes is one injury in camp and a team could be left scrambling to add a starter. The difference between 1-year, $5 Million and 2-years, $10 Million seems a lot smaller when you’re desperate.
All this is to say, if Pavano returns to play a season in Target Field, I suspect that it will be because he accepted arbitration, which I predicted he would from the get-go.
So, if Pavano returns, it is a good thing for the Twins?
In the sense that if they bring him in, it means that Harden goes off the board, I’d say no, but in any objective evaluation, the answer is probably yes.
Pavano’s one-year bargain with the Indians was largely a ploy to rebuild his value after a horrid stint in New York. Pavano made just 17 starts his first season in the Bronx and then just nine in the next two seasons combined. When he did pitch he was below average and that type of performance isn’t going to win you many fans in New York. His time in Cleveland was unspectacular as he went 9-8 in 21 starts with a 5.37 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP, and while he improved after being traded to the Twins (5-4 in 12 starts, 4.64, 1.37) he was still a bit below league average. His start against the Yankees in Game Three of the playoffs was one of his best of the season, and would have looked a whole lot better if he had been pulled at the end of the 6th when he was clearly gassed.
So why should the Twins be hoping that a reliever who was below average even when he was pitching better accepts their offer to return? Why would they want him back in the first place?
The proof is in the pudding, or the peripherals in this case.
Pavano’s QERA–a predictive stat based on strikeout, walk, and groundball rates, scaled to ERA–was under four and would have been the best on the Twins’ staff. His strand rate was 66.1% (h/t to Over The Baggy), three points below his career average and five points below league average. Combine that with a BABIP well over .300 and you have a lot of runners reaching, and a lot of runners scoring, that normally wouldn’t score. As both of those rates return to normal, Pavano’s ERA and RA will both drop back into normal rates. A decline in BABIP will also portend a drop in his WHIP, and that doesn’t even factor in improved defense behind him.
Pavano will slot in at the three or four spot in the rotation depending on how Nick Blackburn pitches, so even if he’s around league average, he’ll give the Twins much better production than they got out of either Glen Perkins or Francisco Liriano. I think there’s an excellent chance that he rates slightly above league average and finally earns the long-term deal he’s been hoping for in the 2010 offseason.
The announcements of players offered arbitration made Twins fans happy last weekend as three names being bandied about—Placido Polanco, Orlando Hudson, and Felipe Lopez were all set free by their respective teams. This was particularly important for Hudson and Polanco, since due to their Type-A status, they would have cost a first-round pick to sign. In the past, the Twins have been reticent to sign players and give up their pick, so this was indeed a prime development.
All in all, these decisions expanded the pool of players that might fit the Twins’ needs. Adrian Beltre, Marco Scutaro, Chone Figgins, Polanco, Lopez, and Hudson have all been named in connection with the Twins, and each of them makes a certain amount of sense given the team’s needs.
However, as soon as that pool open, it got significantly shallower. Scutaro, Figgins, and Polanco lasted less than a week before Boston, Seattle, and Philly snapped them up. While this may be seen as a bad thing for the Twins, it’s actually quite good. Of the three players signed, only Polanco was a serious target for the Twins, and, as many people have noted, his three-year deal will take him into his age-37 season. To say that by that point he’ll likely be in the decline phase of his career is a gross understatement.
Not only were the players signed not Twins targets, the teams that signed them were those notorious for disrupting the market for the other players. Had the Red Sox decided to pursue Orlando Hudson, for example, they could have offered more in terms of both money and years than the Twins were likely to offer, making signing him extremely difficult. With the Mariners, Phillies, and Sawx now sated, the Twins will be dueling teams more in the tax bracket for the services of the rest of their trade targets.
With a level playing field, the Twins now have a chance to go after the player the think will best help their team, which makes correctly identifying their weaknesses that much more critical. If you can have what you want, you’d better be sure of your choice.
As I noted previously, the Twins were a poor defensive team and a pretty adept offensive one. They were the fifth best offensive team in baseball in terms of runs scored per game, but average or worse depending on your choice of defensive metrics. While the addition of JJ Hardy will help, they could use another sure glove. Another consideration is the extremely poor performance the Twins got out of the #2 spot in their order. Orlando Cabrera’s .314 OBP ahead of Joe Mauer was a great improvement over what the Twins had gotten before his arrival, but still brought the team line up to just .262/.306/.394, and even that was inflated by Mauer’s 123 ABs at a .398/.451/.707 clip.
While J.J. Hardy could be slotted into the second spot, which would leave the Twins looking for someone to hit 6th or 7th, his .218/.281/.323 line last year would have been part of the problem, not a solution. His career line as a second hitter is certainly hopeful enough, .272/.322/.467, but there are serious concerns to be had about Hardy producing that line in a harder league, especially when he failed to do so last year.
This brings us to a player I feel is the best fit for the Twins: Felipe Lopez.
2009 was very, very kind to Lopez, as he had his best season as a professional. His 2005 season in Cincinnati was a little better offensively, but his defense was much better in 2009. Still, his .310/.383/.427 line was well above average, as evidenced by his OPS+ of 111 and his EqA of .286. His move away from Arizona, paradoxically, improved his offensive output as he hit much better in the second half, .301/.364/.412 vs. .320/.407/.448. Having that kind of player ahead of Joe Mauer would create a many more run scoring opportunities for the offense. So it’s an open-and-shut case, right? Lock him up!
Well, not quite.
Much like Adrian Beltre circa 2004, Lopez had an uncharacteristically good year just in time to hit the free agent market. His career line isn’t much to crow about:.269/.338/.400, better than Brendan Harris’, but not necessarily the line you want to add for 7-8 million a year, especially when you factor in a career strikeout percentage of nearly 19%. His defense, too, hasn’t been the stuff of legends. His career UZR at short (where he played from 2001-2007) is a reprehensible -42.3, he’s never posted a positive figure at the position in his career.
But the Twins aren’t buying his career, they’re buying his future, and while career numbers are useful for sniffing out one-year wonders, players can and do improve over time and Lopez is one of those players.
He broke into the bigs at age 21 with the Toronto Blue Jays in 2001, but didn’t play a full season until he was traded to the Reds in 2005. Since that point, he’s hit .280/.349/.407, which is close to the line he posted this season, and which makes it look much less like an aberration. If he posts that type of season ahead of Mauer and a healthy Justin Morneau, he’ll provide a very similar offensive boost to what Orlando Cabrera gave the Twins at the end of 2009.
But, if you’ve been tracking with me, you’ll notice that I’ve made two defensive notes so far. First, the Twins need to improve it, and second Lopez is bad at it. Only that’s not quite right. Lopez is bad at shortstop, true, but he no longer plays there, nor would the Twins want him to. Lopez was moved to second base for 1/3rd of his games in 2007, and was clearly much better there than he was at short. His full time debut was less inspiring in 2008, back to 5.3 runs below average, but he rebounded in 2009 to 7.8 runs above average. If his entire career had been played there, I’d be worried this was unusual, but as far as second base is concerned, he’s spent more time above average than below it. He was the fifth best defender at second base in 2009, while he may regress, I don’t think he’ll all of a sudden become a defensive ditch.
I understand the reasons for being wary of Lopez, but if he puts together a season like the one that seems within his grasp, 2009 won’t look like an aberration, and whoever signs him will get a tremendous return on what seems like it will be a fair investment.
It had been a couple of quiet weeks since the JJ Hardy trade for the Twins until Monday’s little he said, he didn’t say fiasco over Joe Mauer’s pending contract negotiations.
The confusion started Monday morning when a site called Fantasy Sports Portal reported that, “Mauer has informed the (the Twins) that he will break off talks if the two sides haven’t reached an agreement by spring training.” My immediate thoughts at 10:25 am were the following:
Not only was I shocked that a source like Fantasy Sports Portal would break this story, but it just didn’t seem like Joe’s words or tone. Especially after he had repeatedly said that the contract would “happen when it happens.”
However, a day later Twins MLB.com beat writer, Kelly Theiser, reported that Joe had texted her and denied any reports of a extension deadline. My first thought on this was…. why doesn’t Joe Mauer text me? Then this:
Anyway, my thoughts don’t really matter, the bigger issue is that of Joe Mauer’s contract. I think it’s safe to believe that Joe is true to his word that he will not set a deadline, but there is also no doubt that he doesn’t want to have to worry about this and answer questions from the media every day of the 2010 season. Joe is a very methodical and focused baseball player and will only want to worry about doing whatever it takes to make the 2010 Twins win.
I believe the Twins front office understands the magnitude of this contract negotiation and I’m sure it’s always at the forefront of their mind. I just simply hope they take this little media confusion as a message. Joe Mauer is willing to work and negotiate to remain a Twins, so let’s get it done and both sides will win.
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