A Few Notes For These Quiet Days

Posted by Dan on January 15, 2010 under Dan | 3 Comments to Read

Just a couple quick notes from the action of the last few days.

First, I do apologize for the lack of content on my part. The Twins haven’t been particularly active and I have been. Grad School is…a mental investment I may or may not have been ready to make. It knocks you on your can pretty good if you aren’t ready for it, but just like any good fighter, the important thing is getting back up. But yeah, the entire class got a cumulative score of 0 on the first assignment; welcome to my last two weeks.

I did recently write a piece for Baseball Prospectus which I am proud of. Getting to put my name in the author logs with Christina Kahrl, Will Carroll, Kevin Goldstein, Joe Sheehan, Keith Law, Nate Silver, and the rest of BP’s incredible alumni was a goal I’ve had for a long time, and well worth the wait. It was a piece of free content so please go check it out!

Second, and perhaps more importantly, there was news regarding a third baseman today, which means it affected the Twins, if only peripherally.

Kevin Kouzmanoff, profiled here earlier, was traded to the A’s along with a prospect for Scott Hairston and Aaron Cunningham. I love this deal for the A’s, since neither of these two were going to be part of any long term plan, and Kouzmanoff is a pretty decent addition. The fact that Hairston was traded from the Padres to the A’s last season makes this deal kind of strange, but all-in-all, I like it fine for both sides.

Needless to say, this kicked up a fair amount of consternation among the Twins’ faithful on Twitter, and presumably also in real life. I can understand that. Kouz is better than anyone the Twins are likely to trot out at third at this point, and neither Hairston nor Cunningham represents a huge investment on the A’s part.

That said, they overpaid, which means the Twins would have had to do the same.

Hairston was a productive regular last season, worth 2.3 wins (2.6 coming while he was in San Diego, -0.3 while he was in Oakland) and while Cunningham is looking more and more like a AAAA player, he’s just going into his age 24 season, meaning he could turn a corner and become productive in his own right.

The Twins had offered Glen Perkins alone and the Padres had turned them down, asking for more than just the left-hander, and now we can see why. Perkins wasn’t great last year, he was injured, and he became a headache to the team by filing a grievance over service time issues. Even if you decide that he and Hairston are about equal, which they aren’t, the Twins don’t really have a Cunningham ready to go. That second player would have ended up being someone like Rene Tosoni or someone of that nature—a high teens, low 20s prospect reasonably close to the majors.

I get that fans want to see the team add someone at third, but the outcry over a Perkins/Tosoni-for-Kouzmanoff deal would have been much louder than it is with Kouz now off the table, and rightly so. As I said back in December, “the Padres want Perkins AND, with the name following the ‘and’ unknown as of yet. Who the second player ends up being will strongly influence how this perspective deal is interpreted.” Now that we know generally who that second player would be, I can say with confidence that I am glad the Twins’ brass passed on this deal. So don’t be fooled by any handwringing you see, this is ultimately a good thing for the Twins.

On the second base side of things, there are still good options to pursue. Orlando Hudson wants Adrian Beltre money (1 year, $9 million), but the only team who has been connected to him at that mark is the Nationals. The Nats are quietly not going to be awful next year, but I still can’t see them adding Hudson at that price, not with Christian Guzman still there and Ian Desmond ready to claim the SS position.

John Perotto, a man of many very good sources, said in a chat on baseballprospectus.com that he believes the Twins are in on Hudson, but are waiting for his price to drop. Save your complaints on the Twins’ tightwad ways, there’s no way Hudson is worth the same amount as Beltre, making this a situation like Joe Crede last season: a desire to do something is no excuse for doing something dumb, like overpaying for talent.

The Twins waited on Crede and got their man without getting locked into some insane Boras-induced contract. If the Nats want to fork over $9 million, more power to them, but I doubt they will and once Hudson’s expectations drop, expect the Twins to be there.

Recall that the Twins offered Jarrod Washburn $5 million not long ago, so the money is there to be spent. I firmly believe that if Hudson wants to come to Minneapolis, he will. The money won’t kill a deal unless the Twins get grossly outbid by the Nats or some other mystery team.

Hudson said he wanted to sign with a team soon, according to the Nationals’ website, but didn’t give a clue to who or when. Still, I don’t think he’ll let himself be teamless when camps open like he was last year, meaning he’ll probably sign within the next two weeks.

Felipe Lopez remains available as well, so the Twins certainly have a few options out there yet even if Hudson doesn’t work out.

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