Another rematch against a team that we just can’t seem to beat.
After being swept in the season series against the Yankees last year, and losing two of three to them in our first meeting this year, the Twins will be considered the underdog in this series, despite what the above numbers say. Should the Twins fail to win this series against the Bronx Bombers, there will undoubtedly be people throwing in the towel on the season, citing the Twins’ inability to beat the “good teams” that they will be paired up against in the postseason.
That’s certainly an overreaction, but winning two of three in the Yankee’s first visit to Target Field sure would be nice.
Game One - Burnett (4-2, 3.86 ERA) vs. Baker (4-4, 4.88 ERA)
AJ Burnett has certainly been having a great season, and was among the early favorites for Cy Young before he got rocked for six runs in just under seven innings a few days ago. Ignoring that last start, Burnett has been an above-average starter. He isn’t striking out his usual total, though, and he is giving up plenty of hits. If an offensively potent team can string some hits together — like the Rays did last week — Burnett’s ERA may rise a few dozen points.
On the face of things, it appears as if Baker is his “start the season slow” mode. With a relatively high 4.88 ERA, Baker is hardly pitching well enough to be considered the staff’s “ace.” As evidenced by his abnormally-high .343 BABIP and improved groundball rate, Baker may be on the cusp of a few lucky breaks. Baker is striking out the most in his career and walking opposing batters at a very low clip, and has the 25th-lowest xFIP in baseball: 3.70.
Game Two – Pettitte (5-1, 2.68 ERA) vs. Liriano (4-3, 3.25 ERA)
Andy Pettitte has been the anti-Baker so far this year. Although his ERA and win/loss record is appealing, his xFIP is a much-higher 4.34, which testaments to his high walk rate, low strikeout rate, and low BABIP, all of which indicate a regression to the mean in the very near future. Pettitte also has a very impressive 82.2 strand-rate, which simply isn’t sustainable over the course of a whole season.
After posting a 7.02 ERA over his last three starts, Liriano seems to have finally convinced people that he will never return to his pre-surgery form. Even with three less-than-desirable starts so far this year, Liriano’s intangibles have been right in line of what we expect: a solid strikeout rate and an average walk rate. His almost complete aversion of the long-ball this year (he’s given up just two home runs all season) is also good to see.
Game Three – Vazquez (3-4, 6.69 ERA) vs. Blackburn (5-1, 4.50 ERA)
After dealing away a package centering around Melky Cabrera for Javy Vazquez, the Yankees are undoubtedly upset with their return. Vazquez, who finished fourth in Cy Young voting last season, is off to a terrible start with New York. His sky-high ERA is only slightly worse than the advanced stats claim, and hope can’t even be gleaned from his BABIP, which is maddeningly (at least for Yankees fans) normal.
Blackburn, on the other hand, has pitched worse than his ERA indicates. Striking out an extremely low 2.50 batters per nine innings (the lowest mark in baseball among qualified pitchers) and giving up far more than his fair share of home runs, Blackburn has been “off” this season. His BABIP isn’t too far off line, and he is inducing more groundballs than he usually does, which is what he needs to do to be successful in 2010. Against the mighty Yankee’s offense, I’m guessing a full return to his usually-reliable self isn’t going to happen.
This series will be the last time the Twins play the Yankees this season. While too much shouldn’t be read into a mid-May series, any matchup of two of the best teams in baseball is important. Another series lose would leave an awful taste in Twins’ fans mouths, but a good showing could help spring-board a successful June for Minnesota.
I’ll get to the Brewers soon enough, but first a little roadtrip post-mortem.
Let’s call a spade a spade, the Twins did not acquit themselves terribly well on this roadtrip. 1-2 against the Yankees isn’t horrible; 1-1 against the Jays is better than it seems, but perhaps less than it could have been; the 0-2 against the Red Sox isn’t as bad as you might think, but again, good teams do better.
But good teams also struggle at various times during the year. On May 12 of last year, The Yankees were two games under .500, but that didn’t stop them from steamrolling their way into the playoffs. Before getting healthy against the Nationals, the St. Louis Cardinals—whom everyone expects to be the class of the NL Central—went 3-7 to lose their stranglehold on the division lead. Every team in baseball will have a 4-6 stretch or worse this season, that’s the way the game is.
That said, it does matter that the Twins couldn’t take at least one game from the Red Sox. It would have been beneficial to win at least one of those games, but as I noted in the preview, Lester and Buchholz are their best pitchers right now and they are better than their nearly .500 record. I’m not looking to excuse the fact that they didn’t play particularly well in either game, it’s just the way things are.
Though it adds to the frustration while watching the games, the fact that the Twins were still getting a fair number of runners on base is a good sign. Over the roadtrip, the Twins hit .237/.307/.366,well under their season line of .270/.350/.419, but a sign that what they seemed to be missing was just the one big hit. Other than the second game in the Bronx and the second game in Toronto, the Twins were in all of the games of the roadtrip, even the ones they’d go on to lose. One hit that falls in here or there could have been the difference in many of those games.
I know that the fact that they didn’t get those big hits is a sign of their opponents’ effectiveness, but if Sabermetrics teaches us anything, it teaches that other than walks, strikeouts, and home runs, pitchers don’t have much control over what happens on a ball that’s put in play. Similar performance could have resulted in a much more positive roadtrip with just a few lucky bounces.
Ultimately, what’s done is done. The Twins are now tied for first place heading into interleague play, and now is the perfect time to put a tough stretch behind them and get back to their winning ways at home.
The Brewers are underperforming right now and badly. Yes, I was bullish when I picked them to win the NL Central before the season, but with a 16-25 record, they’re working their way out of contention and it’s not even June. They finally snapped a nine game losing streak Thursday night by beating the Pittsburgh Pirates, but it’s been tough sledding in the month of May for the Brewers.
Since the month began, they’ve gone 7-11 (Hey, Slurpie time!) and if you had Casey McGehee as the team’s OPS champ—among those with more than 20 ABs—well, you win the pool.
Prince Fielder is hitting better now that the weather is getting warm, but Rickie Weeks hasn’t been able to sustain his hot start. Corey Hart and Ryan Braun are producing, but Alcides Escobar has been disappointing in his first few months with the team. Ultimately, their hitting is probably going to be ok once Fielder rounds into form; if Weeks remembers how to draw a walk, so much the better. But a league average offense won’t be enough for this team because their pitching has been nothing short of putrid.
They hold the third worst ERA in baseball at 5.23, over a run worse than the Twins’ 3.94 mark, and opponents are hitting nearly .300 off their staff, .288 to be exact. Yovani Gallardo is still a shutdown ace, which skews their numbers a little bit. Without his 2.89 ERA, the Brewers are even worse off, their team ERA ballooning by almost half a run to 5.63.
Somewhat unfortunately, the Twins will face Gallardo on Saturday, so they won’t get the full benefit of the Brewers’ ineffectiveness, but a pretty porous bullpen will more than make up for that scheduling disappointment.
Game One
Dave Bush is keeping the Brewers in games, but rarely pitching deep enough into them put the game on ice. He has three quality starts in his past four appearances, but has pitched past the sixth inning just twice this season. He’s unlikely to give up a ton of runs (say, more than five), but he’s given up three runs in half of his starts this season, so the Twins should be able to plate at least a couple. Patience is a virtue against everyone in the Brewers’ rotation, and Bush is no exception, as he’s walked fewer than three hitters in just three of his starts.
Remember that time when a whole bunch of people maligned Nick Blackburn after a couple bad starts? Well, they’ve been awfully quiet lately, since Blackburn has rightfully won his last three decisions—all quality starts—including a complete game win over Detroit. He pitched extremely well against the Yankees, but was nearly given a bad loss until Jason Kubel changed the story of the series. Right-handed batters are hitting Blackburn more consistently, hitting .327 against him versus .294 for lefties, but port-siders are hitting him harder, with an OPS of .873 against him versus .861 for righties.
Something’s got to give in this game as Blackburn is much better at home and Bush is much better on the road. Either way, this game isn’t going to be a 2-1 duel. Runs are going to score, but the winning pitcher will be the one who continues to do what he does best: Bend, but do not break.
Game Two
There’s a much longer piece on Kevin Slowey in the offing, but Parker Hageman is—as always—doing yeoman’s work at Over The Baggy on Slowey’s issues so far this season. His last start was an improvement over his previous effort, but it was still less than the Twins would like to see out of a pitcher with control as good as his. I’m pretty optimistic when it comes to all things Slowey, so perhaps I’m undervaluing the effects of his wrist injury, but I still feel like he’ll turn a corner eventually this season.
Like Blackburn, Slowey is having more trouble with right-handed hitters and getting hit harder on the road than at home. He’s dominated the Brewers over his career, holding the team to a .182/.211/.288 line in four starts against the team. The Twins will need that pattern to continue because Slowey will square off against the Brewers’ ace.
Gallardo as been a beacon of hope in the Brewers slough of mediocre pitchers. After getting roughed up by St. Louis in his second start of the year, Gallardo has been difficult to score against. He’s hasn’t allowed more than two runs since that start on April 10, but, like Slowey and Bush, hasn’t been pitching deep into games. When he’s on the mound, the Brewers are unstoppable, but he simply isn’t out there very long. The Twins simply have to be patient in this game. Gallardo’s biggest weakness is that he walks too many hitters in pursuit of strikeouts; he’s walking nearly five per nine innings. Not only do those walks put runners on base, they drive up his pitch count, making him less likely to get out of the fifth or sixth inning.
No one has had particular success against him, but with right-handers hitting a paltry .208 against him, it might be a good chance to sit Michael Cuddyer, who has yet to get a day off this year, and who foundering in May to the tune of .208/.289/.353.
Game Three
Manny Para gets the start for the Brewers, replacing Doug Davis, who will be out for a few weeks with pericarditis—an inflammation of the sac that surrounds the heart. He was solid in his first start, allowing just one run over four innings against the Reds, though he lasted just four innings. He’ll be on something of a pitchcount again, so expect this to be less “Manny Para” and more “Manny Para and Friends”.
Carl Pavano continues to puzzle Twins fans with his occasional…how to put this elegantly…secondary performance. He’s currently 4-4 with a 4.11 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP, but if you take out his two turrible starts against the Royals and most recently against the Jays, his ERA drops to 2.09 and his WHIP to 0.93. His .500 record just doesn’t do him justice. In any case, he hasn’t yet had two consecutive horrible starts, so I’m hopeful about this upcoming. I don’t think anyone thought he’d be this type of pitcher for the Twins, what remains to be seen is if he’ll hold up for a full season or if his performance will fade as the year wears on.
It’s unfortunate that the Brewers are in the midst of remodeling their bullpen, as it now has a chance to actually prevent runs. They still aren’t a solid squad, but with Trevor Hoffman getting time off to fix his mechanics, they’re better than they were.
It looks like J.J. Hardy will miss the series against his old club, but Carlos Gomez should return to the Brewers’ lineup at some point during the series. Trevor Plouffe will make his big league debut in Hardy’s stead on Friday.
Conclusion:
The Twins need, and ought, to take at least two of three in this series. They can absolutely beat Para and Bush, and while they might not break through against Gallardo, they’ll get a good shot at the Brewers’ pen. The reason I say they need to win at least two of these games was outlined in Joe Sheehan’s latest newsletter, which I cannot recommend highly enough, as well as in Marc Normandin’s piece on ESPN’s TMI blog. The Twins are a phenomenal interleague team, one of the very best in baseball, but because of…abnormalities in the scheduling, they’ll play the Phillies when the Tigers get the Pirates. The Twins rely on a superior interleague record to help boost their chances of making the postseason, they did it last year, they did it in 2006 and 2007, it’s what they do. Making hay in the games they should be winning will help give them a cushion should they stumble against the Phillies.
This week’s Fan Friday comes from a Twins fan all the way out in Washington, D.C. Thanks to Eric Olson for giving his thoughts on the Twins. For more from Olson check out his blog Call to the Pen.
One of the strangest things about the roster this season is the absolute paucity of outfielders on both the 25-man (active) roster and the 40-man roster. The current outfielders on these rosters consist of the following: ‘elmon Young, Denard Span, Michael Cuddyer, and a reanimated corpse. Er, Jason Kubel (you can’t fault me, he plays the outfield a bit like a zombie). That’s both the beginning and the end of the list. In theory, Nick Punto, Alexi Casilla, and/or Matt Tolbert (if and when he is in the bigs) are the back-up outfielders. This notion is offensive to me, and I sure hope it is to people reading as well.
Of those “outfielders” on the roster, Jason Kubel is not an outfielder. He’s a DH that keeps getting pressed into OF duties because Gardy is incapable of not starting Jim Thome three games out of five and Gardy doesn’t trust ‘elmon. Michael Cuddyer’s ideal role is probably that of part-time outfielder and part-time right-handed platoon designated hitter. It’s hard to express how bad he’s been in the outfield the last few years according to UZR, which we now know was not an artifact of the baggie, as he turned in far superior numbers in the ‘Dome than on the road. ‘elmon Young is also beginning to look like his range in LF is simply not going to improve, regardless of his weight loss and slightly increased speed. He needs to be moved to RF ASAP (especially given the powerful arm we’ve witnessed), or else there’s a decent chance he’ll also trend toward being a part-time DH part-time OF. Denard Span is a great lead-off hitter, but his defense in center-field is suspect at best, as the last few series have pointed out. His arm is simply not strong enough to be a great centerfielder either. The big problem pointed out in this paragraph? There are simply not enough DH slots to go around, especially given the presence of Thome, who Gardy is driven to play three or four times a week, regardless of the painful obviousness of his reduced bat speed.
So, we really have about a sum total of 2½ outfielders on the roster right now, when you factor in the fact that Span is legit, and the others are partial outfielders. So what options are there right now? Well, in AAA, the Twins have currently stashed veterans Jacque Jones and Jason Repko, both of whom are playing pretty well, but are not good enough to take away the day jobs of the current outfielders. One of them would be a great backup outfielder on the 25-man roster, but given that neither are on the 40-man roster and the Twins have as of yet refused to make a move on the 40-man to accommodate the outstanding Anthony Slama, don’t hold your breath.
So, that’s the current outfield situation. It’s certainly not ideal, and the Twins’ flyball pitchers have certainly been punished with the lack of outfield defense. But this is a forward-looking piece. The Twins have a wealth of great outfield prospects, several of which are nearing their major-league debuts in the next couple years. In fact, there’s a good chance we’ll have a major outfield logjam in the coming years! So, let’s look at the future!
Michael Cuddyer is under contract through 2011, as the Twins exercised his option for the 2011 series last off-season. I think the Twins will likely make a perfunctory move at re-signing him, so as not to anger the casual fans, who generally love Cuddyer, but will let him walk in the end.
‘elmon Young has either one or two arbitration years remaining.
Jason Kubel is in the final year of a two-year deal, but there is a team option for $5.25 million for 2011.
Denard Span just signed a five-year contract. He’ll be here for a while.
Here are the up-and-comers. I’m only looking at the players that have a legitimate chance of being long-term starters for the Twins, so players like Jacque Jones, Jason Repko, and Jason Pridie. Those guys are at best backups at this point, with the possible exception of Repko:
Aaron Hicks – The near-consensus number one prospect in the Twins system is currently playing in the Low-A Midwest League for the Beloit Snappers. He might be the best defensive centerfielder in the system, and has an incredible arm that was honed from years of throwing 95-mph fastballs. Can you say, “Position player pitching?” That said, he is only 21, and still has a long way to go. The earliest we’ll probably see him on the big club, barring a raft of injuries or an explosion in his numbers, is September 2012 or sometime in 2013. He is seen as a Torii Hunter/Kirby Puckett type player, and is likely the Twins next long-term center-fielder.
Ben Revere – Revere is a top-five Twins prospect, depending on how much stock you put in the dismal reports of his defense. Revere is really, really fast, but his arm is suspect, and he uses his speed to compensate for the fact that he takes some incredibly strange routes to get to the ball (remind you of anyone? GoGo (minus the arm strength)?) That said, Revere might be the best hitter in the Twins system. He has little power, but he hits for an insane average; he flirted with hitting .400 in 2008, and even though his triple-slash stats declined in 2009, that is to be expect in the (extremely) pitcher-friendly atmosphere of the 2009 Florida State League. Right now Revere is in AA New Britain, and might be the most likely call-up in the event of a serious injury to Denard Span. The problem with Revere is his lack of power and arm strength. He may not have the arm strength to play in CF long-term, but doesn’t have the power to take a corner outfield role (but then again, the Twins have put little stock in the traditional hitting requirements for corner positions; for cripes’ sake, Punto is STILL playing 2B).
Angel Morales – When Morales was drafted in 2007, he was seen by many to be a light-hitting outfielder with incredible speed and great defense. To the surprise of many, including yours truly, he turned into possibly the best power prospect the Twins have had since Jason Kubel. Morales will be in Class A Fort Myers this season, and should stay there all year. We could see him in a Minnesota Twins uniform as soon as 2012 if he continues at his current pace, and manages to curb his (excessive) strikeout rate. A constant comparison I have heard is Carlos Beltran, and if he continues, he could be the next great Puerto Rican MLB player.
Rene Tosoni – The MVP of last year’s Futures Game follows Justin Morneau in the Twins’ Canadian ranks. Tosoni is arguably the most complete and ready player of the ones I’ll mention here, but he also probably doesn’t have a long-term role with the Twins, due to the high level of competition on this list. I’d be surprised if we don’t see Tosoni this season at some point, most likely in September. He’s a definite candidate to be added to the 40-man roster at some near point in the future. Tosoni has trouble with left-handed pitching, and could be a very good number 2, 5, or 6 hitter in the future against righties. I fully expect Tosoni to be traded in the next two years, and he could yield a decent position player or a good pitching prospect in return. That said, you never know.
Joe Benson – The last prospect I’ll look at today is Benson. I don’t know as much about Benson, but many people rank him as the third-best outfield prospect in the Twins system after Aaron Hicks and Angel Morales, due to Revere’s problems. Revere has very good on-base numbers, and isn’t a slouch in the power department. We could see him in 2012, if he isn’t traded or doesn’t get injured (like he did after breaking his hand/wrist after punching a concrete wall in 2009).
So where does the outfield go in the future? Here are my guesses, and I’d sure be interested to see what you all think in the comments (in the order of LF, CF, and RF):
2010: ‘elmon Young, Denard Span, Michael Cuddyer
2011: Denard Span, Ben Revere, Michael Cuddyer (I think Young gets traded this off-season for something long-term at 2B or 3B).
It’s another quick series for the Twins, and one that will determine how successful their roadtrip is. They’re 2-3 so far against two quality opponents. It’s hard to be upset about that, but 2-5 looks a whole lot worse, and 4-3 is downright laudable, so there’s a lot left to do.
Much like the Yankees’ series, the pitching matchups don’t really tip to one team or another.
Game One
Clay Buchholz is off to a really solid start. He’s yet to really pitch them out of a game, and while the strikeout numbers aren’t there yet, he’s given them a chance to win pretty much all of his starts.
No Twin has more than four at-bats against him, so it’s pretty much Tabula Rasa as far as that’s concerned, but Buchholz’s walk rate of 4.8 BB/9 ought to clue you in to what the Twins need to be looking to do. (Hint: It’s be patient and force him pitch in the zone.)
Scott Baker’s final line against the Yankees undersells how he pitched. The last two runs were charged to him after the bullpen was unable to hold the Yankees at bay, which is how the cookie crumbles sometimes, but he pitched better than it looks like he did. Nevertheless, he’s been pitching well lately and I fully expect that to continue. Though the Twins haven’t played well against the Red Sox in the past, Baker hasn’t been particularly victimized by them, though Adrian Beltre has caused him some consternation in the past.
Game Two
John Lester hasn’t rounded into form like he did at the beginning of last season, but he’s still been the Sox’s best starter. He gave up four runs on four hits with four walks in his last start against the Tigers, but prior to that he’d rattled off four consecutive starts allowing fewer than three runs. He’s a strikeout machine, and while he’ll walk a couple, the Twins aren’t going to be able to just wait him out and hope he doesn’t hit his spots. Fortunately, Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, and…Brendan Harris, have hit Lester well over their careers. With any luck, they’ll be able to capitalize on a Lester mistake, which is probably what it’s going to take to score against him.
Liriano wasn’t the textbook definition of a hard-luck loser in New York, but with a few base hits falling in the other way, he could have won that game without pitching any better. His last time out against the Red Sox, Liriano made his first of three starts that had everyone proclaiming his return to 2006 form. He’s hit a bit of a rough patch since, but even so, he’s been one of the Twins’ best pitchers. I doubt he shuts the Sox down for another seven innings like he did last time, but I didn’t think he’d do it then either.
Conclusion
Split. The Twins are in something of a slump right now, not because of their own poor performance, but they just aren’t getting the bounces a team on fire gets. My sense is that Baker locks up game one and despite his best efforts to the contrary, Liriano gets the short end of the stick again. The Pesky Pole and short porch in right will be a sexy target for the Twins’ lefties, so I’m backing Morneau for his 12th home run and maybe one from Mauer, though he has just three extra-base hits in his last 10 games.
As a final thought, I see this—even more than the series in New York—as a something of a playoff series. Perhaps not in its intensity or meaning, but in the sense that they are going to a place where they have not played well, against the opponent’s top pitchers, needing at least one win and really hoping for two. A split won’t bother me, but a sweep either way will give me pause. Ultimately, just like in New York, it’s a couple games in the season’s second month. It means more in the touchy-feely, ethereal sense than in the standings, but at some point this year, it would be nice to see the Twins walk into Comerica, Yankee Stadium, Fenway, or Tropicana and really punch someone in the mouth and sweep a big series on the road. They did it in Anaheim at the start of the season, but that’s losing its luster with every series the Angels lose.
Remember when we thought that Glen Perkins could be a large part of a trade for San Diego closer Heath Bell?
Now, not so much.
Thanks to the emergence of Francisco Liriano, Perkins was forced to begin the season in Triple-A Rochester where the 27-year old would hopefully build up his trade value. Through his first seven starts in the Twins’ minor league system, Perkins is 0-5 with a 10.08 ERA and a 1.988 WHIP.
With a career major-league ERA of 4.73 in 281.2 innings, Perkins is either still hurt or simply forgot how to pitch. Perkins made his last start on Saturday, where he gave up four earned runs in five innings. His ERA actually dropped .64 points.
Perkins hit the shelf late last season with tendonitis in his left shoulder. He missed 23 days on the disabled list, and the Twins’ failure to give Perkins service time during his rehab stint procured a Berlin Wall of ill feelings between the two parties.
Throwing a total of 12 innings in 2009 between Rookie-League and High-A, Perkins amassed an ERA of 2.25. He faced 45 batters, and struck out nine while walking just one. Even if there were still concerns over Perkin’s shoulder, the Twins didn’t seem to be worried.
During Spring Training this year Perkins complained of lower back stiffness, which some dismissed as simply another cry for attention from a whiny pitcher who wasn’t very good in the first place. Could either his left shoulder or lower back be acting up again?
Some cite Perkin’s very high opinion of himself as problematic. Could the sharp drop in production due to injury have impacted Perkin’s confidence, resulting in horrid starts this year in Triple-A? Or is he as cocky as ever, but still hurt?
Either way, there is little chance Perkins sees major-league action with the Twins this season. He is quite a ways down the totem pole in Rochester. If the Twins’ starting rotation suffers a devastating series of injuries, Perkins may not even be the third player called up.
Perkins may be a home-town kid who grew up dreaming of a chance to play for the Twins, but any future major-league success will come with another franchise. For the sake of both the Rochester rotation and Perkin’s career, the Twins need to part ways with the 6’0’’ lefty.
If they don’t, this Perkins Problem may develop into something even more distracting.
There’s a lot of hyperbole circulating about this weekend’s series against the Yankee. I agree that it’s a big deal, but it’s no bigger than any other series against a potential playoff opponent. Yes, the Yankees dominated the Twins last year, and yes, the Twins typically don’t play well in the Bronx. But to borrow a phrase from every stock brokerage commercial ever: Past performance does not guarantee future results.
The Twins will miss C.C. Sabathia, who pitched Thursday in a loss, and likely Phil Hughes, which gives them an advantage in this series. Hughes could pop up in Game Three, but I doubt it, more on this later.
The Yanks are a little out of sorts right now. The rainout and subsequent doubleheader knocked their rotation out of whack, mitigated somewhat by the return of Andy Pettitte. Injuries have hit them early this season, with Curtis Granderson and Nick Johnson on the shelf and Jorge Posada and Robbie Cano playing a little dinged up.
They’ve gotten solid contributions from Brett Gardner and Francisco Cervelli, but the fact remains that they aren’t the Yankees team of last year’s second half that could simply outpitch, outhit, and outrun an opponent. They may yet get there, but they are beatable right now, as Detroit showed by taking three of four from the Bronx bombers and shutting them out twice.
Game One pits two pitchers coming off of opposite starts.
Scott Baker bounced back from two bad starts to give the Twins two really good ones in their last homestand. He’s limiting his home runs allowed, which is a huge key to his success, and if he can keep his walks down—as he did in his last start against the Orioles—he’s likely to give the Twins another solid start. Mark Teixeira is one of Baker’s great nemeses as he’s gone 4-for-7 with a home run against him. Not a large sample, to be sure, but a matchup that’s worth watching.
A.J. Burnett was sailing to open the season, including back-to-back shut down starts against the Orioles before turning in a horrendous effort against the Red Sox last Sunday. He’s not striking out as many hitters as he has in the past—his K/9 is down to 6.4 from a career average of 8.3—but is still having good success forcing hitters to put the ball in play. Joe Mauer, Delmon Young, and Justin Morneau have all had reasonably good success against the righty over their careers, but none has more than 20 ABs against him. By comparison, Jim Thome has 30 career ABs against Burnett and has stuck out in 11 of them.
Game Two shapes up to be toughest game of the series for both teams, one which could easily be decided by one bad pitch by either starter.
Francisco Liriano had the best bad start I’ve seen in a long time his last time out. Yeah, he allowed 10 hits and five runs over six innings, but if three of those balls were hard-hit, I missed one. It was “Death by 1000 Cuts” or “What the 2002-2008 Twins Were Hated For”. It was his worst start of the year, but unless that happens again, I won’t be too concerned. These things happen to everyone, even the best aren’t immune. It’s basically not worth talking about the Yankees’ hitters versus Liriano over the course of their career since he’s a fundamentally different pitcher than he was before, but Marcus Thames is 4-for-9 with three home runs against him.
Andy Pettitte wasn’t a lock to make this start after missing his last time through the rotation with elbow soreness, but he’s back, due in no small part to the rotation jumble the Yankees face after their doubleheader. Pettitte has been really good this season, giving up more than two runs in a start just once so far and allowing just one home run in 34 innings of work. If he’s on his game, he’ll force the Twins to be very efficient in their offense, something they haven’t really done this season. Of the seven Twins with 10 or more ABs against Pettitte, five have batting averages over .350, though he’s allowed just two home runs to the current Twins lineup. The Twins should put a decent number of runners on against Pettitte, but their ability to get the decisive hit when they need it will determine whether or not they can give Pettitte his first loss of 2010.
Game Three would have been a much rougher draw for the Twins had the Yankees remained on their normal rotation, as they would have faced the red-hot Phil Hughes rather than Sergio Mitre.
Since returning from a family emergency, Nick Blackburn has put together back-to-back quality starts. He shut down the Orioles in his most recent start and held the Tigers more or less in check in the start immediately preceding that. Blackburn drew a lot of flak early in the season for not pitching well at all after signing his new contract this offseason, but he is the same pitcher who threw nine consecutive quality starts in the middle of last season. Yes, he’s the Twins fourth or fifth best starter, but he’s entirely capable of turning in a line of really solid performances. He was as good as anyone in the Orioles series, but with the big bats of the Yankees in their matchbox of a park, I’m a little concerned about him in this start. Teixeira is 6-for-6 with a bomb lifetime against Blackburn, so…that’s not promising.
Blackburn faces Sergio Mitre, who started in Andy Pettitte’s place last time through the rotation. He gave up three earned runs and one jack in his 4 1/3 innings of work against the Tigers. He generated 10 groundball outs, however, something he’ll look to do again. If the Twins can get into the Yankees’ bullpen early in the series, they may get an extra long look at Mtire, who is not used to pitching more than 3-4 innings.
Something to watch for in all three games is the Yankees’ running game. Gardner is a very quick runner and one who gets pretty good jumps—he’s 16/17 in steals so far this season—and the Twins had some issues with the aggressive running style of the White Sox. The Yankees may try to exploit that flaw early and often, hopefully Mauer and Hudson have gotten their issues addressed. If not, it could be up to the pitchers to keep Gardner and, to a much lesser extent, Jeter off the bases.
Conclusion: It’s a tough call. On paper, I like the Twins’ chances Friday night, but Saturday and Sunday are too close for either team to be a rock-solid lock. Blackburn should be better than Mitre, but Mitre isn’t going to pitch the Yankees out of that game either. The X-factor here is the Yankees’ performance at home, where they are 10-2 this season. I don’t see either team sweeping, but either team could win 2-1. My hunch is that the Yankees give the Twins their second series loss of the season.
The Pale Hose roll into the Twin Cities Tuesday, and Ozzie Guillen’s favorable tweets aside, there’s really no love lost between these two teams. Save 2005, when the Sox won the World Series, the Twins really ruined the Sox’s best years recently. Gone are Dye and Podsednick, aged are Pierzynski and Konerko—though Paulie is killing the ball right now—and the team has been reduced to rebuilding on the fly.
Granted, I’d rather have Kenny Williams trying to rebuild a team on the fly than almost any other GM in baseball, but it’s not a pretty process and it’s clear to see that it’s fraught with pitfalls.
Alex Rios and Andruw Jones have proved to be prescient additions, and Jake Peavy looks like he’s gotten his feet under him, but even as those pieces fall into place, others are clearly poor fits.
This series comes down to the ability of guys like Juan Pierre, Gordon Beckham, and Alexei Ramirez, none of whom have an OBP over .310 or a batting average over .230, to get on base. The Sox were supposed to be a pitching, defense, and situational-hitting team, but they’ve simply found new sources of power.
It’s pretty emblematic of the Sox’s issues that they have a middle of the road slugging percentage and OPS—18th in baseball for both—but are just 24th in OBP and 29th in batting average. If they hit the ball, they are hitting it hard, but their lineup isn’t doing that from top to bottom. Get past Konerko, Jones, and to a lesser extent Quentin, and it’s pretty clear sailing until they bat next.
Game one pits Freddie Garcia against Kevin Slowey, which certainly would seem to be a matchup that favors the Twins. Garcia has been up and down this season, but definitely solid for a fifth starter. He’s alternated good and bad starts so far this season, and he was lucky-good last time out against the Royals. He allowed 10 hits, but no walks, and the Royals plated just two runs against him in six innings of work.
The key players in this game will be Delmon Young and Michael Cuddyer. Garcia has held lefties to a .186 BAA and a .626 OPS against, but righties have hurt him to the tune of a .347 BAA and a .957 OPS against. Joe Mauer has a .348/.444/.565 line against Garcia, one of the only lefties on the team to boast a positive mark against him.
Slowey has struggled with his pitch counts lately, having made it out of the sixth inning just once this season. He hasn’t pitched the Twins out of any games, but he just hasn’t been good, which is very disappointing. Slowey is always going to give up hits, but he’s walking hitters and getting hit hard, and those aren’t good things.
Slowey is exactly the type of pitcher who should be killing the Sox. He makes opposing hitters swing to get on and if he can force the Sox to do that, the Twins will be in business. If he’s sharp at all, this should be a bounceback start for him, but the true test will be if he can get out of the sixth inning.
I like the Twins to win this one and Slowey to make Juan Pierre look bad…or worse as the case may be.
Game Two will be a tough game for the Twins. John Danks has been the Sox’s best starter, no question about it. He’s yet to allow more than two runs in a start and has been pitching deep into games, which limits opposing teams’ ability to attack the soft part of the Sox’s bullpen (i.e. anyone besides Romo or Thornton).
I saw Danks’ first start of the season and he was sharp, but the Twins were willing to be aggressive with him, which I think is the wrong approach. He’s a lock to walk a couple, and the Twins should let him do that if he’s going to. Getting the big hit hasn’t been the Twins’ forte this season, but they’ll need to if they’re going to beat Danks.
Cuddyer, who was one of the key figures in game one, is the big man in this one as well. He’s 17-for-33 against with five home runs and four doubles against Danks for an overall line of .515/.543/1.091. The Twins have hit Danks well historically, but Danks hasn’t been this sharp historically, so we’ll see who wins out.
Other than one bad start against the Royals, Carl Pavano has been every bit as good as Danks, but has become the very definition of a hard-luck loser. Pavano lost both of his last two starts despite giving up just two earned runs in eight innings both times. I’ve got a sick feeling in the pit of my stomach that Pavano is going to be sharp in a loss for the third straight time.
The Sox are playing a lot better than they were when the season started, and with Danks on the mound, I like their chances to steal one. This series has a split written all over it. It’s a quick one, no doubt, and I’ve got to say, I’m with John Malkovich on this one.
Today we have a special column from guest writer, Jon Nelson. Nelson was in attendance at the Beloit Snapper game on May 1 when Twins prospect, Daniel Osterbrock threw a no-hitter. Nelson accounts his experience below.
There were a few thoughtful glances at the hits column in the fourth inning. It became evident in the fifth that something special could be in the works. By the sixth, it was clear that the impossible was just maybe possible. In the seventh, there was nothing but tension. Then there was an absolute release of emotion.
Daniel Osterbrock threw a no-hitter for the Beloit Snappers on Saturday, May 1, 2010.
The lefthander pitched seven innings of near-perfect baseball, with seven strikeouts, in the second seven-inning game of a rainout makeup doubleheader as the Beloit Snappers beat the Wisconsin Timber Rattlers – an Appleton, Wis. based Class A Affiliate of the Brewers – 4-0.
Those who went to the Friday game but had to leave because of rain were thrilled that they had gotten wet walking to their cars in a downpour and instead came for the two contests on Saturday.
They were a part of one of the most incredible feats in all of sports.
Daniel Osterbrock autographed ticket from his No-Hitter
Forgive me for slipping into second, and first, person, but if the baseball deities ever let you witness a no-hitter, you are incredibly lucky. The feeling I had as the innings mounted – and the hits column for the Rattlers refused to budge – could best be described as giddy tension. You felt as if you were part of something special, because you were, and trust me, it didn’t matter that it was Class A.
What’s more, Osterbrock took a perfect game into the final inning.
The first batter he faced in the seventh, D’ Vontrey Richardson, fouled off a number of two-strike pitches before he drew a full-count walk. But then Osterbrock induced a double-play groundout off Ryan Gennett, jammed Khristopher Davis for a pop out to second baseman Brian Dozier, and was rushed on the mound by his teammates.
Osterbrock was supported by a defense that made a number of key plays and allowed no errors. He earned seven strikeouts, improving his record to 2-1 in four starts and ERA to 2.30.
The Cincinnati, Ohio native was not only a great competitor in the first Snappers no-hitter since 1996, but also a great sportsman. He remained to sign the autographs of many fans young and old without complaining. He is a valuable, classy part of the Twins organization, and if he continues to improve, he should be pitching for a starting spot at Target Field soon. He has the tools and mindset to make it in the bigger levels.
Liam Hendriks was effective in the first contest, pitching six innings of one-run baseball while allowing five hits, walking one, and striking out six for a 5-1 win over the Wisconsin Timber Rattlers.
Hendriks deserves notice. The one run caused his 0.41 ERA to balloon to 0.64 after pitching 28 innings with just 12 hits, three walks, and two runs, plus 32 strikeouts after five games.
But Mayday was Michael Osterbrock’s day.
The Snappers are taking notes on their organization’s Major League success. After losing one game to the Rattlers on Sunday, but getting another win from them on Monday, the 15-9 Snappers are tied for the Midwest League Western Division lead with the Peoria Chiefs (Chicago Cubs).
They have been backed by the pitching of Osterbrock and Hendricks, and a number of other strong arms, including Dutch product Tom Stuifbergen, who has a 1.38 ERA with a 3-0 record in four starts.
The Snappers’ offense is starting to show its potential. Outfielder Aaron Hicks, the Twins’ top prospect, is now hitting .313 with three home runs and eight runs batted in from the leadoff spot.
Four Snappers have at least three home runs at this early point in the season. First Baseman Michael Gonzales leads that category with four.
The Snappers will finish well this year if they can continue this early success, and will furnish the Twins system with important young talent.
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