Twins-Rockies Series Preview 6/15-6/17

Posted by Dan on June 15, 2010 under Dan | 3 Comments to Read

The Twins had a tough go of things against the Atlanta Braves, but you’d be hard pressed to say that they didn’t play one of the NL’s best all but square. The Twins had a chance, with the bases loaded and Jason Kubel up in the second game, to win the series before game three started, but couldn’t get it done and paid the price.

I feel somewhat obligated to weigh in on the Twins…lack of an optimal Sunday lineup, but I won’t belabor the point. Many managers, league wide, rested stars on Sunday with the day off Monday to maximize their rest, so in that sense, it’s probably a blessing that Joe Mauer was in the squad at all. The only decision that really bothers me was the decision to give Denard Span a day off with Kevin Slowey on the mound. Span’s played a lot, and probably needs a day off, but with Slowey’s flyball tendencies, it seemed to me to be a poor time to give him the day off. Yes, it ended up being moot, but that was what struck me.

No point in dwelling on the past, so it’s on to the future.

Let’s not kid ourselves, games one and two are merely an undercard to the Jimenez/Liriano battle in game three, but every game counts the same, so here’s the breakdown.

Game One

Aaron Cook has been one of the Rockies’ most consistent starters over his nine seasons with the team. Not always consistently good, but typically not despicably bad either. Since becoming a full-time starter, Cook has never posted a full-season ERA+ below 110 but only once has he posted an ERA+ over 120. His career WHIP is 1.44 and his ERA is 4.35; he’s nothing special but not bad either.

In that light, this season has been something of a disappointment for him and for the Rockies by extension. His WHIP and ERA are up, he’s walking more hitters and striking out fewer, all of which has lead to his struggles. While some might try and blame his issues on his hitter-friendly home park, Cook has been substantially worse on the road. At Coors, Cook is holding hitters to a .222/.288/.325 line with 2 HR allowed, but on the road, hitters are tagging him to the tune of .322/.394/.432 line with another 2 HR.

The Twins lefties—Span, Mauer, Morneau, and the DH du jour—should feast on the righty, as Cook has been hard-pressed to retire port-siders. He’s allowed them a .322/.394/.398 line with 20 walks to just 9 strikeouts.

We’ve outlined Pavano’s Jekyll and Hyde tendencies before, but it bears repeating. In wins, Pavano is holding hitters to a .217/.245/.289 line with just 1 HR, but in losses, hitters beat him for a .316/.354/.520 line with 7 HR. If he’s good, he’s really good (WHIP of  0.91 in wins) but when he’s bad, the Twins really have to hit the ball well to back him up (WHIP of 1.46 in losses).

Ultimately, there’s isn’t a lot of rhyme or reason to his blow-ups. Some come at home, some on the road. Sometimes he struggles against good teams like Texas, sometimes it’s Kansas City that gets to him. Lefty heavy lineups can do him slight, and the Rockies have just three righties in their expected lineup, so it could be a rough outing for Pavano on Tuesday. Or he could throw a perfect game, you decide.

Game Two

Game two will be a worthy warmup to the main event with Scott Baker squaring off against Jhoulys Chacin.

While Kevin Slowey’s inability to pitch deep into games has been well-chronicled, here and elsewhere, but Baker hasn’t been much better. He’s pitched six innings or fewer in eight of his 13 starts so far this season and has a 6.59 ERA in those eight starts.

Baker’s struggles have come from a few factors in concert. He’s giving up more hits, an above average amount of home runs, and seen his strikeouts fall from by almost a full K/9. Hitters aren’t swinging at as many of Baker’s pitches in the zone as they did last year, but they are making more consistent contact and hitting the ball harder. Baker’s slugging percentage allowed is at its highest level since 2006 and he’s still having the same trouble with home runs that he did in 2009.

For all the trouble he has had, there have been a few really strong starts, though he has yet to put the Twins on his back against a strong opponent. If there’s anyone who has benefitted from the emergence of Francisco Liriano as the staff ace, it’s Baker, who would be under much more scrutiny if he were called on to be the team’s stopper.

Chacin made back-to-back tremendous starts, going 14.2 innings before giving up his first run. Once they came, however, the runs have come in bunches. Since going seven innings in both of his first two starts, Chacin has completed six innings just two other times and he’s yet to allow fewer than two runs in a start. He’s still a high strikeout pitcher, averaging 9.7 K/9 and will keep the Twins at bay with his slider, which he sets up with a low-90s fastball.

Chacin is another pitcher who is tougher on right-handers than lefties, so it could be a tough few games for Delmon Young and Michael Cuddyer, though the former has been hitting everything lately, as he’s hitting .371/.378/.657 with 3 HR and 13 driven in during his current 10-game hitting streak.

Game Three

The main event. In this corner, the best pitcher in baseball, a guy putting up video game numbers, and one of the biggest surprises of the 2010 first half: Ubaldo Jimenez. There’s not much to say in terms of his splits. He’s better against rigthies than lefties, but neither are hitting above .200 against him. He’s better on the road than at home, which doesn’t bode well for the Twins, but he’s dangerous everywhere. His ERA of 1.16 is lower than all but 25 starters’ WHIP,  but his WHIP of 0.97 is just third behind both Doug Fister—who the Twins beat in Seattle—and Cliff Lee. His only loss came when the Dodgers shut the Rockies out over a month ago. Since then he’s won all six of his decisions.

So, how do the Twins crack his steel shell? Efficiency is the name of this game, if the Twins get a runner into scoring position, they simply have to drive him in. Jimenez isn’t immune from walking a few, which may be the opening the Twins need. To be clear, I don’t like their chances in this game, but I don’t think it’s an impossible task, due in no small part to their starter.

Liriano isn’t as good as Jimenez—shocking, I know—but he has been outstanding in his own right. He’s striking out nearly 10 hitters per nine, he’s keeping the ball in the ballpark, and he’s posting the lowest walk-rate of his career. Both of his starts this month have produced double-digit strikeout totals and seven or more innings of quality work. In his last start against Atlanta, Liriano was every bit as good as mound opponent Tim Hudson and helped the Twins win a close game against a good team, something they have struggled to do this season. I’m not saying he has to throw a shutout to beat Jimenez, I’m just saying it’d really help, and if that is what the Twins will need from their pitcher to win the game, I’m glad it’s Liriano on the hill.

It looks like Orlando Hudson won’t return during this series, which puts more pressure on the lineup regulars to perform. It’s worth watching to see what lineups Ron Gardenhire uses on both Wednesday and Thursday, as it’s unlikely that Joe Mauer would catch both games, but pitting Drew Butera against Jimenez  just isn’t going to end well. If that’s the plan, I’d rather start every third inning with an out already on the board, you know, to save time.

The Twins’ saving grace in this series is that all three of the Rockies’ starters is more susceptible to lefties than righties. They’ll need better production from Justin Morneau in this series than they got from him against Atlanta, as his 1-for-10 was certainly part of the Twins’ inability to score runs. Of course it goes without saying that they need more production from Brendan Harris or Trevor Plouffe, as well as Jim Thome when he gets his chances.

At the risk of sounding like Capt. Pessimistic, I think the Twins will lose the series and struggle to win the game they do get. The Rox have been an up and down team, losing 3-of-4 to the Astros, then sweeping the Blue Jays, so it’s difficult to gage their form exactly. That said, I’m not wild about the Twins’ direction right now and I think they’ll struggle against Jimenez and one of the right-handers and lose this series.

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