The Kansas City Royals have one excellent starting pitcher, a very solid first baseman, and a lights-out closer. That’s about it.
Maybe that’s not entirely fair. The Royals could have a fairly strong starting rotation, and David DeJesus could be an adequate No. 2 hitter. Outside of those aspects, though, the Royals will need a lot of help if they envision competing in 2010.
Judging from their minor-league organization, that help isn’t going to come from within. The Royals have their fair share of top prospects, but almost every one of them is stuck is the lower levels. Here are a few players who could contribute to the Big League squad in 2010:
Jeff Bianchi, SS, 23 years old
Originally a second-round pick of the Royals back in 2005, Bianchi has slowly but surely advanced through the Kansas City organization. His first two years, 2005 and 2006, were spent with the short-season Arizona League Royals. Although he was drafted out of high school, Bianchi looked very advanced for that league and averaged an OPS of 1.216. He played in just 40 games, but Bianchi’s future looked bright.
Bianchi’s first full-season, in 2007, saw a noticeable dip in production. With the Burlington Bees (in the same league as the Beloit Snappers), Bianchi saw his OPS drop to .611 while his power went out the window and his strikeout rate dramatically increased (or rather, his walk rate decreased.)
He spent 2008 in a High-A league, where his power increased but his strikeout rate worsened. Bianchi started last season once again in High-A, but after a quick start was quickly promoted to Double-A, where he hit an impressive .315/.356/.441 while taking more walks.
There’s some concern over whether Bianchi has the defensive mobility required to remain a shortstop, and he could find himself at second base as soon as this year. This should be very motivating for Bianchi, as Kansas City has two good second basemen in Alberto Callaspo and Chris Getz, both of whom are higher on the totem pole.
At shortstop, the Royals are sending out Yuniesky Betancourt, who makes for a much easier target. Bianchi should start 2010 in Triple-A, but if Betancourt struggles or a middle infielder gets injured, the 23-year old prospect could get a promotion.
Twins’ pitchers will need to recognize that Bianchi doesn’t walk much at all, though his power isn’t overly impressive, either. Bianchi will hit for good average and make contact with a lot of pitches.
Kila Ka’aihue, 1B, 25 years old
Ka’aihua was given some playing time at first base and designated hitter in 2008, but the presence of Butler gives him a very difficult obstacle. The Royals’ designated hitter situation (read: mess. Jose Guillen? Really?) gives Ka’aihua a decent chance to make the big league club in 2010.
Ka’aihue’s main weapon is his power. A full season was spent in Triple-A last year, where Ka’aihue hit .252/.392/.433 with 17 home runs and a wOBA of .368. With poor defense, a high strikeout rate, and no speed to speak of, Ka’aihua is a prototype designated hitter.
The 25-year-old has eight years of professional ball under his belt, and his walk rate is very high. PECOTA projects him to hit .244/.361/.429 with 18 home runs and 69 BB/86 K in 2010.
Minnesota pitchers will need to watch out for this slugging Hawaiian coming off the bench late in the game. Ka’aihue could also hit from the designated hitter position, and is very capable of going yard in just about every at-bat. With Soria closing out most tight games for the Royals, their ability to erase a Ka’aihue-induced deficit will be slim.
David Lough, OF, 24 years old
Very few people gave much thought to David Lough, an outfielder drafted out of Mercyhurst College. But an extremely strong 2009 campaign between High-A and Double-A has caught the attention of the Royals.
Drafted out of college in 2007, Lough went directly to the Appalachian League and hit well in small sample size. 2008 was spent in the Midwest League, where Lough hit .268/.329/.455 with 16 home runs and plenty of doubles and triples. The power was there to some extent, and Lough was holding his own on the base paths, but he wasn’t getting on base at a good clip.
Because of the power he showed in 2008, Lough began 2009 in High-A Wilmington, where he exploded for a line of .320/.370/.473. When he was promoted to Double-A Northwest Arkansas mid-season, Lough brought his final 2009 line to .325/.370/.496. This is certainly earn him a promotion to Triple-A in 2010, and he will likely receive some playing time in the major-leagues. He will probably be used primarily as a 4th outfielder because of his limited defensive range and lack of “corner outfield” power.
The Twins should think of Lough as a version of their Rene Tosoni: A left-handed oufielder with “tweener” power and an almost total inability to hit left-handed pitching. Both could certainly contribute to their respective big-league clubs, but are by no means “elite” prospects.
Jordan Parraz, OF, 25 years old
This former 3rd-round pick has flown under the radar in his six years of professional baseball. Drafted by Houston out of the CC of Southern Nevada (where uber-prep talent and the supposed “second-coming of Babe Ruth, Willie Mays, and Johnny Bench,” Bryce Harper is playing), Parraz was a Rule V pick of the Royals in 2008.
Before last year, Parraz posted decent batting averages while showing modest on-base and slugging percentages. Once with the Royals, though, Parraz hit his stride. Starting the 2009 season in Double-A, Parraz was promoted to Triple-A to end the year. Combined, Parraz hit .348/.432/.541 in 81 games. A hamstring injury kept him from playing the entire year.
Parraz has great strike-zone judgment, and his high wake rate drives up his value. He could also get a look in the Kansas City outfield in 2010. PECOTA’s 50th percentile projection for Parraz in 2010 is .266/.337/.397, a decent enough bench bat.
Others to look for: Corey Aldridge, OF, 30 years old; Irving Falu, 2B/SS/OF, 27 years old; John Suomi, C/OF, 29 years old; Cody Clark, C, 28 years old; Ed Lucas, 3B, 27 years old
The Twins’ scouting department had a down year in 2003, drafting just three players who eventually reached the Big Leagues. Of those three, just Scott Baker is putting together a solid career. Here are the more notable picks in the 2003 draft.
1st Round (21st overall) – Matthew Moses, 3B
Never known as an elite defensive player, the Twins knew that Moses’ bat would carry him to the major leagues, where he would hopefully take over at third base. Minnesota hadn’t enjoyed a consistent third baseman since Corey Koskie left, and they felt that Moses could eventually compete for the job. Outside of his bat, Moses was a very average player.
He wasn’t the best defensively, was a poor base-runner, and didn’t have the strongest arm. In his first 18 games in the Gulf Coast League, though, Moses managed to hit .385/.417/.492. A physical in 2003 revealed that Moses had a small hole in his heart that a 20-minute operation fixed.
Whether or not this had anything to do with his decline can’t be known for sure, but in 2004 Moses hit .223/.304/.366 in Quad Cities (Low A). In half a season in Fort Myers in 2005 Moses hit .306/.376/.453, but as soon as he was promoted to New Britain he fell apart again.
Moses spent the entire 2006 season with the Rock Cats, where he hit .249/.303/.386. He bounced between New Britain and Rochester in 2007, but returned to the Rock Cats in 2008. Last year was again spent with the Rock Cats, where Moses hit .224/.274/.353. Sadly, Moses has been awarded the “bust” label, and there is little hope that he will ever develop into what the Twins envisioned.
2nd Round (58th overall) – Scott Baker, RHP
The one saving grace of the 2003 draft, Baker flew through the minor leagues. Just over a year after he was drafted, in 2004, Baker was mowing down batters in Triple-A Rochester. In 2005 he reached the Twins and posted a 3.35 ERA in just over 50 innings. From that point forward, Baker has enjoyed a very successful major-league career.
This year, Baker is considered Minnesota’s ace, though he would be a solid No. 2 or No. 3 starting pitcher most other places. Over the course of his career, Baker has amassed an ERA of 4.27 in 653 innings and 6.9 strikeouts per nine innings.
4th Round (118th overall) – David Shinskie, RHP
Shinskie was selected out of Mt. Carmel High School in the fourth round in 2003, despite having received football scholarship offers from BSC schools. He stumbled around the minor leagues for about six years before retiring his glove and attempting to re-start his football career last year.
At 25-years old, Shinskie received a scholarship from Boston College and an offer to compete for their quarterback position. Shinksie was a four-year starter at quarterback at Mr. Carmel High School, and he won two state championships. In 2009, Shinskie threw for 2,049 yards and 15 touchdowns as he led the Eagles to an 8-4 record. They lost to USC in the Emerald Bowl.
14th Round (418th overall) – Levale Speigner, RHP
This pick is probably only notable because after Washington stole Speigner from us in the 2006 Rule V draft he went on to shut us down in 2007. Against Johan Santana on June 9, 2007, Speigner went six innings giving up just one run on two hits. He compiled a season ERA of 8.78, but he dominated the team he was drafted by.
(Note – as the 2004 draft involves several players who are still progressing through the Minnesota organization, I will stop my draft evaluation series here. But be sure to stick around here throughout the season for all the Twins’ content you can handle!)
Unlike many small-market teams, the Minnesota Twins aren’t afraid to draft high school players early. Despite the uncertainty and signability risk high schoolers present, Mike Radcliff and his elite scouting team drafted prep stars with four of their first five picks in the 2002 Amateur Draft.
The first round pick has panned out very nicely for the Twins, while the last high school player selected (Adam Lind) didn’t sign. (The other two prep picks – Mark Sauls and Alex Merrick – didn’t exactly pan out.) All in all, though, the Twins found several top talents in the 2002 MLB Draft.
Here is a breakdown of some of the notable picks.
1st Round (20th overall) – Denard Span, OF
(Note – Alex Halsted has an excellent article on Denard Span in the Twins’ 2010 Annual. If you haven’t already, be sure to purchase this publication. It’s well worth the read.)
As soon as Span was drafted, he was given the title of “Torii Hunter’s Replacement.” Years later, this is coming to fruition. Hunter has packed his bags and left for greener pastures (and heftier paychecks) and Span will be the Opening Day center fielder in 2010.
Span signed late in 2002, and started his professional career as a 19-year old in the Appy League in 2003. Getting himself adjusted to wood bats, Span hit .271/.355/.319 in just over 200 at-bats. 2004 was spent between the GCL and Quad Cities, where Span combined to hit .273/.370/.320. He was getting on base at a good clip but hadn’t shown any form of power.
At 21 years of age, Span spent 2004 between Fort Myers and New Britain. Surprisingly, Span enjoyed his greatest offensive production while in the Florida State League, which usually features elite pitching. In 2004 Span hit a combined .307/.377/.369.
The entire 2006 season was spent with the Double-A Rock Cats, and Span managed to break a career high on home runs per season, with two. The next two years were spent with Rochester, and included a heart-wrenching Spring Training snub that almost made Span quit baseball.
Span was given his first regular at-bats in the major leagues in 2008, where he finished 6th in Rookie of the Year voting after hitting .294/.387/.432 with six home runs. Last year was Span’s first full season in the major-leagues, and he hit a very impressive .311/.392/.415 with eight long balls, and 23 stolen bases.
About to turn 26, Span is an above-average offensive specimen who provides average defense in the outfield. In 2010, he will be cast as the Opening Day center fielder for the Minnesota Twins, and we are all looking forward to seeing how his second full season in the Bigs turns out.
2nd Round (61st overall) – Jesse Crain, RHP
Crain signed sooner than Span after he was drafted, and threw some relief appearances for both the Elizabethton Twins and Quad Cities River Bandits in 2002. He looked very impressive, posting a sub-1.00 ERA and a sub-0.800 WHIP while striking out 9.4 per nine innings of pitching. Crain’s first year had “small sample size” written all over it, but the Twins were confident in their young righty.
Displaying his excellent fastball and deadly slider, Crain spent 2003 advancing between High-A, Double-A, and Triple-A. Over the course of the season Crain once again managed to post a 1.93 ERA with a very high 12.2 strikeouts per nine innings.
Even though Crain had garnered experience at the University of Houston, some felt he was being rushed through the system and not being allowed enough time to develop. It’s hard to slowly advance a prospect, though, when he is absolutely dominating every level of competition, and the Twins only managed to keep Crain in Triple-A until August of 2004, when he made his major-league debut.
Crain averaged a 2.93 ERA from 2004 through 2006, but his strikeout total was not nearly as good as it was in the minor leagues. The 24-year old was getting the job done, though, so the Twins kept giving him a regular workload.
In 2007, Crain had surgery on a torn rotator cuff and labrum in the middle of May and missed the rest of the season. He returned in 2008, where he was forced to man the set-up role when Pat Neshek went down with an injury. He posted a 3.59 ERA while striking out 7.2 batters per nine innings, the highest total of his major-league career.
Last year left much to be desired, and many Twins fans gave up on Crain. He put up an ERA of 4.70, but managed to strike out 7.5 batters per nine innings. His WHIP was at a career-worst, though, (the nickname “Crain-Wreck” was coined at this time) and he spent a significant amount of time in Rochester to try to get back on track.
After 12 games with the Red Wings, Crain returned to the Twins and put up a 2.20 ERA during the last two months of the season. Minnesota awarded him with a $2 million contract for the 2010 season. After his performance to end the 2009 season, Crain certainly deserves another chance, but he will have a very short leash.
6th Round (182nd overall) – Pat Neshek, LHP
A hometown boy, Neshek attended high school in Brooklyn Parks, but went to college in Butler. After signing in 2002, Neshek joined Crain in the Elizabethon bullpen. He struck out 13.5 batters per nine innings, the second highest total in the league behind Honeudis Pereyra.
Neshek made fairly steady progress through the organization, with one premature promotion to Double-A in 2003. The Twins corrected this by having Neshek start 2004 in Fort Myers, and then advancing once again to the Rock Cats, where he posted an ERA of 3.82 the second time around.
Like most side-armers, Neshek was very vulnerable to left-handed bats, which could have been a significant part of the reason he spent so much time in New Britain. In 2005 and 2006, Neshek had a FIP of 4.64 against left-handed batters, while a 1.98 FIP against right-handers. (This struggle continues to haunt Neshek, who has combined for a 5.02 FIP against left-handed batters in his major league career, but a 2.52 FIP against right-handers.)
The 24-year old spent his entire 2005 season in New Britain, where he finally showed the Twins the level of dominance they wanted to see, putting up an ERA of 2.19 while pushing his strikeout per nine total back over 10. Neshek spent the first part of 2006 in Triple-A, where he put up a 1.95 ERA while striking out 13 per nine innings. There was no way the Twins could keep him down on the farm for much longer, and they called him up to make his major-league debut in early July.
During his first season in the major leagues, Neshek boasted a 2.19 ERA, a 0.784 WHIP, and 12.9 strikeouts per nine innings. His ERA+ was 204 through the 37 innings he threw.
Neshek spent the entire 2007 season with the Twins, where he had an ERA of 2.94 and 9.5 strikeouts per nine innings. He was narrowly missed an All-Star appearance. Early in the 2008 season it was discovered that Neshek had a torn UCL and required Tommy John surgery. He missed all of last season, but appears to be ready for the start of the 2010 campaign.
Other notable picks:
5th Round (152nd overall) – Clete Thomas, OF – (Did not sign)
8th Round (242nd overall) – Adam Lind, 1B – (Did not sign)
The 2001 MLB Draft could be labeled as a success, if for no other reason than bringing Joe Mauer to the Twin Cities. In 2001, the Twins focused on a thick crop of prep talent, as their first four picks were fresh out of high school. So far, it looks as if two of those first four picks are bound for successful major league careers. Let’s take a look at the notable picks in the 2001 Draft.
1st Round (1st overall) – Joe Mauer, C
Despite the criticism this pick received, I’d say things have worked out fairly well for the Twins. Minnesota passed over USC super-star Mark Prior, who many viewed as the best prospect available. The Twins instead took home-town boy Joe Mauer because they feared that Prior wouldn’t sign with them. In hind-sight, this was obviously a smart decision on Minnesota’s part because of the dominance of Mauer and the injury trouble of Prior, but I think it’s safe to assume that decision was made based on signability issues, not because they thought Mauer would be the better pick or because they foresaw any mechanical problems in Prior.
Prior actually had an incredible few years in the major leagues with the Cubs. He finished seventh in Rookie-of-the-Year voting in 2002, and third in Cy Young voting the next year. Even after several seasons plagued with injury, Prior has a career 3.51 ERA while he averaged a very impressive 10.4 strikeouts per nine innings. If he would have avoided any health problems, there is little doubt that Prior would have been one of the best pitchers in the league.
But picking Mauer was obviously the right decision, regardless of the Twins’ motivation at the time. After just six seasons, Mauer is certainly in thick of the “Best Catcher” discussion. Having won an unprecedented three batting titles, Mauer was awarded with his first (and hopefully not last) MVP Award following the 2009 season, where he hit .365/.444/.587 with 28 home runs in just 138 games.
3rd Round (77th overall) – Jose Morales, SS
Drafted as a catcher, Morales was eventually moved behind the plate. The young switch-hitter has never displayed much power, but has managed to put up excellent on-base-percentages during his last few years in the minor leagues. He has repeated Triple-A for a few years, but this is more a result of his path to the Twins being blocked (see: Mauer, Joe) than his inability to hit.
Morales made his major-league debut in 2007, when both Mauer and Mike Redmond were dealing with injuries. Morales went 3-for-3 in the game, but injured himself in the fifth inning while running the bases, which put an abrupt end to his season.
This year, Morales was slated to be Mauer’s backup, but he required wrist surgery last month and will be out until mid-March.
13th Round (377th overall) – Kevin Cameron, RHP
Cameron was drafted by the Twins out of the Georgie Institute of Technology. While with the Twins, Cameron worked his way through the system as a relief pitcher while posting great ERAs and a respectable strikeout-per-nine ratio. He played the 2006 season with the Rochester Red Wings, but before he was promoted the Padres snagged him as a Rule V pick.
Since then, Cameron, 30, has enjoyed some success in the major leagues with the Padres, and Oakland Athletics. On January 11th, Cameron signed a minor-league contract with the San Francisco Giants.
29th Round (857th overall) – Nick Blackburn, RHP
After watching Blackburn for three years, it’s hard to believe that other teams collectively found over 850 players who they thought would have more successful careers than this right-handed pitcher out of Seminole State University. Blackburn just finished his second full major-league season in 2009, posting a 4.03 ERA while making a reputation for himself with incredible control of his pitches.
Despite having college experience, Blackburn slowly progressed through the Twins’ minor-league system. He never put up flashy strikeout totals, but he consistently managed to ge opposing batters out. He will probably never be a star, but Blackburn is very capable of filling the middle of any major-league rotation.
Although the season is just around the corner, there is still plenty of time to start a mini-series, isn’t there? As we follow the latest (and most likely inaccurate) Joe Mauer rumors, here is a review of the first round of the 2000 draft, along with a few other notable picks.
1st Round (2nd overall) – Adam Johnson, RHP
With the highly-coveted 2nd overall pick in the draft, the Twins selected right-handed pitcher Adam Johnson, from Cal State Fullerton. Johnson dominated collegiate batters, and was a candidate to go first overall, but signability issues pushed him down to No. 2.
The Twins aren’t known to rush prospects, but they indulged themselves with Johnson after the young righty enjoyed a good season in both High-A and Double-A. At this time, it wasn’t known whether Johnson could remain a starter, or if he would be forced to the bullpen. Either way, most were convinced Johnson would be a star.
After seven appearances with the Twins in 2001, Johnson amassed an ERA of 8.25 through 25 innings. He was quickly returned to the minor leagues, where he toiled in Triple-A for the rest of his career. He left baseball after the 2008 season, which he spent with the Southern Maryland Blue Crabs, an Independent League team.
Johnson was ranked by Baseball American as the Twins’ top prospect heading into the 2001 season, but slipped to 5th in 2002, and 10th in 2003, before falling off the map.
Unnecessary hype was a major reason Johnson was a failure at the major league level, but not being allowed to fully develop in the minor leagues could be another contributing factor. The Twins gave Johnson a signing bonus of $2.5 million, which was outrageously high at the time.
It is disappointing to notice how many other major-league stars were taking after Johnson in the 1st round of the 2000 draft. Adam Wainwright, Chase Utley, and Rocco Baldelli were all first-round selections in the 2000 draft. Adrian Gonzalez was the first-overall selection of the Florida Marlins.
Heilman enjoyed a successful major league career, but he wasn’t signed after the Twins drafted him in 2000. He re-entered the draft in 2001, and was drafted by the New York Mets. Heilman was in the Chicago Cub’s bullpen last year, where he put up a 4.11 ERA in 72.1 innings. His ERA+ was 109.
12th Round (342nd overall) – Jason Kubel, OF
2000 was a relatively unsuccessful year for the Twins’ scouting and drafting departments, but they did find a late-round gem in Jason Kubel. A right-handed outfielder (although Kubel did pitch in high school with decent results) they drafted out of high school, Kubel lit up just about every minor league level he was at.
Up until 2004, Kubel was probably considered as an average minor league outfielder: below-average base running abilities and no power to speak of, he wasn’t especially valuable. In the 2004 season with New Britain and Rochester, though, Kubel’s slugging percentage shot up almost 70 points higher than his previous career high. Hitting a total of 22 home runs in the 2004 season between Double-A and Triple-A, Kubel instantly became a top prospect.
As we are all now aware, Kubel’s selection in the 2000 draft was a wise decision. As one of the best offensive outfielders in the league, Kubel is no doubt a source of pride for Minnesota’s scouting department.
Erik Lis seems to have flown off the radar these days. After putting up a .283/.353/.462 batting line in his second consecutive year at New Britain, I gave Lis the 47th position on my Top 50 Prospects list.
Should he be higher? After all, the guy has hit everywhere he has been.
As a 25-year old in Double-A, though, Lis is quickly losing momentum. After a successful collegiate career, spending two years in the same location isn’t usually in the cards for a high-caliber hitter. Lis has never been the best athlete, and his defense is well below average, but he has swatted plenty of home runs at every level he has been. Here are his career stats in the Twins’ organization.
Shouldn’t his bat be enough to carry him through the system, or does having a clear defensive position carry more value than most think?
Lis’ powerful bat limits his defensive options to the corner outfield or first base. Spending the majority of the 2009 season either at first base or as a designated hitter, the New Britain coaching staff showed that they don’t have much confidence in Lis’ fielding abilities in the outfield.
As an American League organization, the Twins utilize a designated hitter every day. Lis is one of the few prospects in the Twins’ system that is almost purely a designated hitter. As evidenced by the promotion Lis didn’t receive after the 2008 season, the Twins place a very high emphasis on defense in their prospects. Should they, though?
What do you think? Should a prospect like Lis be valued more by the Twins and moved more aggressively? Or do the Twins place the right amount of emphasis on defense among their prospects?
While we sit and wait for some meaningful news to float out of the Twins’ offices in Target Field, anticipating the future is one of the best ways to pass time.
As we saw last week, the Minnesota Twins have no shortage of elite outfield prospects. From the stars like Aaron Hicks and Ben Revere to the lesser-known Joe Benson, Angel Morales, Max Kepler, and Rene Tosoni, there is plenty of outfield talent in the Twins’ system.
Most of these guys are still quite a ways away from breaking into the major leagues, but by 2012, the Minnesota outfield could conceivably be bursting at the seams.
Currently, Denard Span and Michael Cuddyer are the best outfielders on the active roster, with Delmon Young and Jason Kubel close behind. Cuddyer is nearing the end of his contract, and will most likely finish his career with the Twins before Hicks reaches the Bigs. And Kubel is obviously better-suited for the role of a designated hitter.
That leaves Span and Young as the outfielders of the future, along with the hordes of minor league talent. Will all of these prospects find regular playing time? If so, where?
Most probably, Revere will be an offensive-minded corner outfielder with average defense. Hicks should be above-average both offensively and defensively, which makes him an ideal candidate for center field. Morales and Benson also have great defense, but their size and power may eventually push them to a corner. Tosoni’s lack of defense will relegate him to a corner, while Kepler is a complete wild card as this point.
(As a side note, you won’t necessarily see these guys playing in their designated/predicted spots this year in the minor leagues. I’m sure Hicks will get some time in the corner, while Revere, Morales, and maybe even Tosoni could get some reps in center field.
As a minor-leaguer, Span played almost exclusively in center field, but had to learn a corner position when he was promoted to the Twins because of the presence of Carlos Gomez. Hopefully Minnesota learned their lesson.)
The estimated-times-of-arrival for these players vary. Revere and Benson will beat Hicks and Morales to the major leagues by a year, Tosoni could be a September call-up as early as this season, while Kepler’s primary objective should be to finish his junior year of high school.
Outside of Tosoni, none of these prospects should be ready by the 2011 season, which very well could be Cuddyer’s last. Minnesota will most likely be forced to deal with an extremely crowded outfield for the 2012 season.
Span will most likely be shifted to the corner position opposite Revere, while Hicks will roam center field in Target Field in 2012. Admittedly, I have no idea what will happen with Young during these upcoming years. He could very well use the momentum he finished the 2009 campaign with and exceed all expectations, but he could just as easily fall flat on his face.
I do know, however, that not all prospects will pan out as expected. The scenario I just presented (an outfield of Revere/Hicks/Span) leaves out Morales, Benson, and Tosoni.
While they have serious issues to work out (strikeouts for Morales, left-handed pitchers for Tosoni) they are incredibly talented and could be potential trade chips.
This over-crowded outfield is certainly a good problem for the Twins. If one prospect gets injured or simply doesn’t live up to expectations, another one will be waiting in the wings.
What will the Minnesota outfield look like in 2012? Which top prospect am I too high on? Which one am I under-valuing? Be sure to let your voice be heard in the comment section!
One of the most trusted and reliable scouting services on the web, Baseball America has a long-standing tradition of accuracy. That said, the release of their Top 10 Twins’ Prospects list this morning raised a few eyebrows. Let’s go over some of their more controversial claims.
Best Defensive Infielder – Jorge Polanco
Without having played a single game in the minors, BA gave the young shortstop from the Dominican Republic the title of “Best Defensive Infielder.” For those not aware, Jorge Polanco is a 16-year-old who was signed out of the Dominican Republic this past year by the Twins with a signing bonus of $750,000. He was ranked by BA as the 23rd best prospect to come out of Latin America this year.
The best aspect of Polanco’s game is, indeed, his defense. Despite being just 16, he is projected to have the hands that will allow him to stay at the shortstop position.
Now, as Parker said earlier today, claiming that Polanco is the best infield defender in the system could either be a testament to his incredible defensive prowess, or BA’s tendency to read too much into the hype.
Carlos Gutierrez – 7th Best Prospect
This confuses me. Last year, BA ranked Carlos Gutierrez as the 9th best prospect in the Twins’ system. After putting up a 6.12 ERA in 52 innings (5.02 FIP) at New Britain, BA raised Gutierrez’s ranking two spots. Now, it’s worth noting that quite a few prospects were removed from last year’s list (Mulvey, Hunt, Swarzak, Mijares) but I still don’t understand how pitchers like BJ Hermsen and Adrian Salcedo were deemed less worthy of a place on this ranking than Gutierrez.
I’m not diminishing Gutierrez’s value at all. I think he is a great pitching prospect (I ranked him 19th) with a very real chance to be a force either in the rotation or bullpen in a few years.
Max Kepler – 10th Best Prospect
This ranking will most likely be the most controversial. Max Kepler, a 16-year-old from Germany, is regarded by most as the best prospect to ever come out of Europe. He has incredible five-tool potential, and is an excellent athlete, but hasn’t finished his junior year of high school yet. He will be unable to complete a full season of rookie-ball until 2011, when he graduates.
I ranked Kepler as the 41st best prospect in the system not so much because of my doubts in his ability to live up to the hype, but because there are so many other deserving prospects. As I mentioned above, Salcedo should have made this list, as should have Joe Benson and Chris Parmelee.
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