It’s unlikely that the Twins will boast the AL MVP in 2010—Justin Morneau had a legitimate shot given his first half and Joe Mauer has been among baseball’s best in the second half, but the full-year efforts of Robinson Cano, Miguel Cabrera, and Josh Hamilton make it extremely tough to believe that a Twin will take the crown.
Francisco Liriano will absolutely get a few Cy Young votes, but Felix Hernandez, Trevor Cahill, and CC Sabathia are all likely to outpace him, so it looks like it will be an award-less year for the Twins.
Unless.
The last time a Twin won rookie of the year was some 15 years ago when Marty Cordova won the title for the 1995 Twins—then promptly taught fans what “plantar fasciitis” was and what it could do to even a talented player. They’ve had plenty of talented players since then, but Mauer was hurt his rookie year, Liriano was as well, and the rest had to grow into their skills. Could 2010 be the year they get their first since the 21st century began?
Their hopes rest on Danny Valencia, a 19th round pick out of the University of Miami, who made his debut on June 3, but didn’t see consistent action until the middle of July. It took injuries to the entire Twins infield—Morneau, Orlando Hudson, Alexi Casilla, and Nick Punto have all had at least one DL stint sometime between July 1 and the middle of August, while JJ Hardy missed substantial time due to a lingering wrist injury—to get Valencia the playing time he needed to make an impact.
Valencia became an everyday player on July 24, going 3-for-5 against the Orioles in game one of a four game stretch that saw him go 14-for-19 including a grand slam off Zack Greinke. Going into Wednesday night’s game against the Tigers, Valencia is hitting .338/.373/.496 since he forced his way into Ron Gardenhire’s day-to-day lineup and .328/.373/.446 overall since his call-up.
His defense, too, has been impressive as Valencia has made few rookie mistakes at third base and has amassed a solid UZR, albeit in too few innings to call it a full sample. Assuming he continues to play solid defense—something he did in the minors as well—he’ll finish 2010 among the best defenders in the majors at 3B (though behind Nick Punto…whatever that means).
Valencia wouldn’t crack the top five in the National League, not with Buster Posey, Jason Heyward, Steven Strasburg, Starlin Castro, and Gabby Sanchez locking down a tight race, but the AL race is much more open. And the lack of a truly obvious choice is what gives Valencia hope.
He already boasts the fourth highest VORP (value over replacement player) among rookies in the AL, despite having the second fewest plate appearances. Carlos Santana currently ranks third, but it seems unlikely that he’ll garner enough votes—stellar though he was while he played—because of his season ending injury, which leaves Valencia with two real competitors ahead of him and one serious threat behind him.
Brennan Boesch is Valencia’s nearest competitor, and if he had maintained his performance from the first half over the course of a full season, he’d be running away with this race.
His first-half line of .342/.397/.593 was a product of some combination of moderate skill, being an unknown commodity, and a whole bunch of luck. His .384 BABIP (batting average on balls in play) was ripe for regression, but who knew it would be so…stark. His BABIP in the second half fell to .191 as part of an overall drop in production that left him with a line of .153/.220/.227 and severely crippled his chances of winning the ROY. Nevertheless, his solid production isn’t going away and voters may still look favorably upon his contribution at the time when the Tigers’ injury woes were near their worst.
Rays catcher John Jaso is something of a dark horse in this race, as he wasn’t even listed among the Rays top 15 prospects heading into the season. Still, as the starting catcher for a team likely headed for a playoff berth and a possible AL East title, Jaso has earned the publicity he’s receiving. He’s hitting .280/.388/.396, which shows you his greatest strength as well as his biggest weakness.
Jaso’s plate discipline is outstanding; he’s walked some 47 times while striking out just 32 times in over 320 PAs, but he has just 21 extra-base hits over that same period. Jaso has the extra advantage of being a catcher, voters do love a catcher that hits well, but his OPS of 783 isn’t much above average (733) despite the fact that his OBP of .388 is vastly superior to the league average of .327.
While it’s possible that Jaso could win the award because of his position and increased visibility, it seems unlikely to me. He might have done enough to earn it in a down year, but voters have shown that they consider power an integral part of the equation when voting for any award and that’s not Jaso’s strong suit.
The front-runner here is another Tiger rookie, he of the .417 BABIP, Austin Jackson. While he may not have made fans forget about Curtis Granderson, he’s given them enough highlight reel material to make them hopeful for the future. Ultimately, it’s Jackson’s award to lose at this point. His defense has been better than expected and he’s been an offensive machine at the top of the Tigers’ lineup. He strikes out way too much, an AL best 138 going into play Wednesday, but that’s about the only bad thing you can say about the center fielder.
Jackson has had luck on his side—see his aforementioned BABIP—but his skill is no joke. His .304/.357/.406 line with 21 steals isn’t the product of a single hot month, or even one good half. Jackson started the year with a .364/.422/.495 in the months of March and April and while he’s cooled off just a little from there, he’s been a consistent hitter and a solid fielder for a Detroit team that has needed consistent production as their lineup has been in flux to say the least.
If the voting happened now, Jackson runs away with the award and you’d be hard pressed to say he didn’t deserve it, but Valencia has a chance to sway some voters because of the Twins battle in the AL Central.
Valencia doesn’t really have a chance to steal this award. The only way he’ll be the first Twin this millennium to win the ROY is if he continues to hit near .330, play stellar defense, and flash a little power. If he does that, he’ll deserve the award on his own merits, given that his performance will be on par with Jackson, albeit in fewer games. Like Jaso, simply being a key piece of a winning team won’t be enough to push Valencia over the edge, but with the AL Central looking like it will be a race worth watching deep into September, Valencia will get a chance to woo voters who might have missed his earlier exploits.
The Twins spent July 5 with a bitter taste in their mouth. They lost three of four to the Rays despite outplaying them for huge swaths of the series. The bullpen coughed up late leads and was unable to stop the bleeding for Nick Blackburn in the finale, ending a run of really solid performances that had set up with the lowest bullpen ERA in the American League.
Losing three of four to the Rays isn’t a fate worse than death, but after poor performances against the Mets and Brewers, it feels bigger than it was. It’s hard to play a good team, beat them fairly soundly, but watch the games fade away at the end. Making matters worse is the surge of the White Sox and the consistent play of the Tigers; both teams are asserting their belief that this division is still ripe for the taking, and indeed it is.
The Twins go into Toronto needing a win less for the standings than for their mental state, but the Jays are in need of wins of their own.
Like the Twins, the Jays are reeling. They power that brought them notoriety in the early part of their season has all but dried up, and they’ve lost their last four series—including a four game sweep by the Indians—as a result. With the All-Star Break less than a week away, and both teams reeling, it would be easy to be hyperbolic about this series being a litmus test for the rest of the season or proof that the Twins need to add Adam Dunn/Cliff Lee/Diego Forlan before the deadline. I view this series more or less as a series that a good team should win.
Carl Pavano, he of the unholy ‘stache, got rocked his last time in Toronto, but has been the Twins’ best pitcher since that shelling. If he can maintain his current form rather than the form he showed when last the Twins left American soil, he gives them the best chance to win, especially since his mound opponent has an ERA barely under seven and a WHIP over 1.50.
Kevin Slowey has been a tough pitcher to pin down. He’s been really good in wins: 2.40 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP with a .291 BABIP, but he’s pitched the Twins out of a number of games with his 7.71 ERA and 1.75 WHIP in losses. It’s not hard to see the difference, he’s pitched about the same in both, but his BABIP rises to .365, meaning he’s giving up hits on over 1/3rd of balls in play. Havingg JJ Hardy back will help, but if the balls are hit where his defenders ain’t, Slowey will struggle.
Scott Baker hasn’t been as bipolar as Slowey, but he too has been both great and terrible, sometimes alternating starts. In his seven wins, Baker holds an ERA of 2.02 and a WHIP of 0.92, while in losses his WHIP doubles to 1.81 and his ERA rises to 8.12. He struggles the second time through the order, so if he makes it through the fourth and fifth without too much damage, it bodes well for the Twins.
Whether the offense shows up or not is anyone’s guess. Joe Mauer has been hitting better over the last few games, as has Michael Cuddyer, but Jason Kubel and Denard Span haven’t been as strong. Justin Morneau has been the Twins offensive powerhouse for most of the season and they’ll need him to be at his best if they’re going to match the Jays’ offensive potential.
I like the Twins to win at least two in this series. They’ll miss both Ricky Romero and Shaun Marcum, which is a great stroke of luck, and if the Jays continue to see their flyballs die at the wall instead of going over it, they could struggle to score runs. Slowey and Baker will need their luck to hold rather than swing the other direction—both won their last start and neither has won back-to-back starts since the beginning of May.
As I noted in the opening, this is the type of series that a good team will win. There’s half a season left, no game is a must win at this point, but if the Twins would like an August and September that isn’t marked by stress and worry, these are the games they’ll need to win to give themselves a comfortable lead.
The Twins had a tough go of things against the Atlanta Braves, but you’d be hard pressed to say that they didn’t play one of the NL’s best all but square. The Twins had a chance, with the bases loaded and Jason Kubel up in the second game, to win the series before game three started, but couldn’t get it done and paid the price.
I feel somewhat obligated to weigh in on the Twins…lack of an optimal Sunday lineup, but I won’t belabor the point. Many managers, league wide, rested stars on Sunday with the day off Monday to maximize their rest, so in that sense, it’s probably a blessing that Joe Mauer was in the squad at all. The only decision that really bothers me was the decision to give Denard Span a day off with Kevin Slowey on the mound. Span’s played a lot, and probably needs a day off, but with Slowey’s flyball tendencies, it seemed to me to be a poor time to give him the day off. Yes, it ended up being moot, but that was what struck me.
No point in dwelling on the past, so it’s on to the future.
Let’s not kid ourselves, games one and two are merely an undercard to the Jimenez/Liriano battle in game three, but every game counts the same, so here’s the breakdown.
Game One
Aaron Cook has been one of the Rockies’ most consistent starters over his nine seasons with the team. Not always consistently good, but typically not despicably bad either. Since becoming a full-time starter, Cook has never posted a full-season ERA+ below 110 but only once has he posted an ERA+ over 120. His career WHIP is 1.44 and his ERA is 4.35; he’s nothing special but not bad either.
In that light, this season has been something of a disappointment for him and for the Rockies by extension. His WHIP and ERA are up, he’s walking more hitters and striking out fewer, all of which has lead to his struggles. While some might try and blame his issues on his hitter-friendly home park, Cook has been substantially worse on the road. At Coors, Cook is holding hitters to a .222/.288/.325 line with 2 HR allowed, but on the road, hitters are tagging him to the tune of .322/.394/.432 line with another 2 HR.
The Twins lefties—Span, Mauer, Morneau, and the DH du jour—should feast on the righty, as Cook has been hard-pressed to retire port-siders. He’s allowed them a .322/.394/.398 line with 20 walks to just 9 strikeouts.
We’ve outlined Pavano’s Jekyll and Hyde tendencies before, but it bears repeating. In wins, Pavano is holding hitters to a .217/.245/.289 line with just 1 HR, but in losses, hitters beat him for a .316/.354/.520 line with 7 HR. If he’s good, he’s really good (WHIP of 0.91 in wins) but when he’s bad, the Twins really have to hit the ball well to back him up (WHIP of 1.46 in losses).
Ultimately, there’s isn’t a lot of rhyme or reason to his blow-ups. Some come at home, some on the road. Sometimes he struggles against good teams like Texas, sometimes it’s Kansas City that gets to him. Lefty heavy lineups can do him slight, and the Rockies have just three righties in their expected lineup, so it could be a rough outing for Pavano on Tuesday. Or he could throw a perfect game, you decide.
Game Two
Game two will be a worthy warmup to the main event with Scott Baker squaring off against Jhoulys Chacin.
While Kevin Slowey’s inability to pitch deep into games has been well-chronicled, here and elsewhere, but Baker hasn’t been much better. He’s pitched six innings or fewer in eight of his 13 starts so far this season and has a 6.59 ERA in those eight starts.
Baker’s struggles have come from a few factors in concert. He’s giving up more hits, an above average amount of home runs, and seen his strikeouts fall from by almost a full K/9. Hitters aren’t swinging at as many of Baker’s pitches in the zone as they did last year, but they are making more consistent contact and hitting the ball harder. Baker’s slugging percentage allowed is at its highest level since 2006 and he’s still having the same trouble with home runs that he did in 2009.
For all the trouble he has had, there have been a few really strong starts, though he has yet to put the Twins on his back against a strong opponent. If there’s anyone who has benefitted from the emergence of Francisco Liriano as the staff ace, it’s Baker, who would be under much more scrutiny if he were called on to be the team’s stopper.
Chacin made back-to-back tremendous starts, going 14.2 innings before giving up his first run. Once they came, however, the runs have come in bunches. Since going seven innings in both of his first two starts, Chacin has completed six innings just two other times and he’s yet to allow fewer than two runs in a start. He’s still a high strikeout pitcher, averaging 9.7 K/9 and will keep the Twins at bay with his slider, which he sets up with a low-90s fastball.
Chacin is another pitcher who is tougher on right-handers than lefties, so it could be a tough few games for Delmon Young and Michael Cuddyer, though the former has been hitting everything lately, as he’s hitting .371/.378/.657 with 3 HR and 13 driven in during his current 10-game hitting streak.
Game Three
The main event. In this corner, the best pitcher in baseball, a guy putting up video game numbers, and one of the biggest surprises of the 2010 first half: Ubaldo Jimenez. There’s not much to say in terms of his splits. He’s better against rigthies than lefties, but neither are hitting above .200 against him. He’s better on the road than at home, which doesn’t bode well for the Twins, but he’s dangerous everywhere. His ERA of 1.16 is lower than all but 25 starters’ WHIP, but his WHIP of 0.97 is just third behind both Doug Fister—who the Twins beat in Seattle—and Cliff Lee. His only loss came when the Dodgers shut the Rockies out over a month ago. Since then he’s won all six of his decisions.
So, how do the Twins crack his steel shell? Efficiency is the name of this game, if the Twins get a runner into scoring position, they simply have to drive him in. Jimenez isn’t immune from walking a few, which may be the opening the Twins need. To be clear, I don’t like their chances in this game, but I don’t think it’s an impossible task, due in no small part to their starter.
Liriano isn’t as good as Jimenez—shocking, I know—but he has been outstanding in his own right. He’s striking out nearly 10 hitters per nine, he’s keeping the ball in the ballpark, and he’s posting the lowest walk-rate of his career. Both of his starts this month have produced double-digit strikeout totals and seven or more innings of quality work. In his last start against Atlanta, Liriano was every bit as good as mound opponent Tim Hudson and helped the Twins win a close game against a good team, something they have struggled to do this season. I’m not saying he has to throw a shutout to beat Jimenez, I’m just saying it’d really help, and if that is what the Twins will need from their pitcher to win the game, I’m glad it’s Liriano on the hill.
It looks like Orlando Hudson won’t return during this series, which puts more pressure on the lineup regulars to perform. It’s worth watching to see what lineups Ron Gardenhire uses on both Wednesday and Thursday, as it’s unlikely that Joe Mauer would catch both games, but pitting Drew Butera against Jimenez just isn’t going to end well. If that’s the plan, I’d rather start every third inning with an out already on the board, you know, to save time.
The Twins’ saving grace in this series is that all three of the Rockies’ starters is more susceptible to lefties than righties. They’ll need better production from Justin Morneau in this series than they got from him against Atlanta, as his 1-for-10 was certainly part of the Twins’ inability to score runs. Of course it goes without saying that they need more production from Brendan Harris or Trevor Plouffe, as well as Jim Thome when he gets his chances.
At the risk of sounding like Capt. Pessimistic, I think the Twins will lose the series and struggle to win the game they do get. The Rox have been an up and down team, losing 3-of-4 to the Astros, then sweeping the Blue Jays, so it’s difficult to gage their form exactly. That said, I’m not wild about the Twins’ direction right now and I think they’ll struggle against Jimenez and one of the right-handers and lose this series.
When I wrote the scorecard notes for this series a few days ago it looked like it was going to be a battle of the hot visitors striking at a Twins squad that’s reeling a little bit. Now that the series has arrived, it’s quite the opposite. The Braves enter the series having split back-to-back series against the Dodgers and Diamondbacks; splitting with the Dodgers is certainly nothing to sniff at, but they should have done better against the Diamondbacks. Still, the Braves have been at their best when people count them out.
The Braves ended April with a nine-game losing streak and a 9-14 record that had many observers looking past them for other contenders in the National League East. Perhaps the diminished expectations were good for the team, as they quietly played well in May, going 15-8, and ended the month just 1.5 games behind the first place Phillies. However, they’ve done most of the damage at home, where they boast a 13-6 record compared to just 11-16 on the road. Target Field sits about 1100 miles northwest of the Braves’ home in Atlanta, which bodes well for the Twins’ success.
Rookie slugger Jason Heyward has been something of a bellwether for the Braves this season. He hit .298/.411/.617 with four home runs and 16 RBI over the first 13 games of the season and the Braves went 8-5. During the Braves’ nine-game slide, Heyward hit .125/.276/.250 with one home run and just one RBI, but over the month of May, he hit .338/.465/.618 with three home runs and 16 RBI.
A good sign for the Twins is that Heyward is scuffling a little bit. Over his last 10 games, the rookie is hitting .195/.353/.220 with 0 HR and 4 RBI, well below his season line of .272/.398/.505. Still, his slumps haven’t been prolonged and he could break out again at any time.
Game One
Tim Hudson has been outstanding for the Braves this year, bouncing back after an injury plagued 2009 campaign saw him make just seven starts. He’s been the Braves’ best starter this year, boasting an ERA of 2.44 and a WHIP of 1.18. Because of his very low strikeout rate, just 4 K/9, the Twins will have their chances to put balls in play and make the Braves’ defense work. Given that this is their first trip to Target Field, the Twins will have a definite homefield advantage in this game. Jim Thome has had good success against Hudson over their careers; he’s 9-for-16 with four home runs and a double off of Hudson.
After three uneven starts against Baltimore, New York, and Boston, Francisco Liriano looks like he’s back in form for the Twins. He’s had three consecutive strong starts, though he’s won just one of the games for reasons beyond his control, and has been tough on hitters both home and away. Right handers are hitting Liriano better than lefties, due in no small part to the action of Liriano’s deadly slider, but no one is hitting particularly well against him. None of the Braves has more than 6 ABs against Liriano, so past records are pretty useless. It’ll be tabula rasa all the way around at Target Field.
Game Two
Things I am sure of: gravity, France won’t win the World Cup, and game two will feature a ton of balls in play.
Both starters, Nick Blackburn and Derek Lowe, are at their best when they are inducing weak contact. Of course, pitchers can’t always control what kind of contact they induce, so look for a lot of hits and a fair number of runs for both teams. Which pitcher will show up with good stuff, or stuff good enough to win, is something of a crapshoot.
Lowe was on a run of five good starts before getting shelled by Arizona in his last outing to the tune of seven earned runs in just four innings of work. Blackburn hasn’t gotten out of the fourth inning in either of his last two starts, but has allowed a combined 20 hits. He’s been better at Target Field than away from it, but I fear that his May success was little more than a mirage.
Game Three
If game two was a battle of two starters on a questionable run, game three is the exact opposite. Kris Medlin has stepped out of the Braves’ bullpen and given them solid starts in Jair Jurrjens’ place. His start against the Diamondbacks was the first that was anything less than quality, but the fact that he’s been so productive is certainly part of the reason that the Braves have risen to the top of the NL East.
Kevin Slowey seems to have gotten over whatever was keeping him from pitching out of the sixth inning as he’s gone seven innings in back-to-back starts, while surrendering a total of one run. He’s gotten back to what he’s best at, namely, limiting walks and keeping hitter’s off balance. He, like Denard Span, is much better at home, so this should be another chance for him to extend his string of good starts.
The last time the Twins and Braves me, the Twins took swept the Bravos over three games, but that was about three years and a stadium ago. It’ll be a tough series, but I like the Twins to win tonight and Sunday, while losing to Derek Lowe on Saturday.
I’ll get to the Brewers soon enough, but first a little roadtrip post-mortem.
Let’s call a spade a spade, the Twins did not acquit themselves terribly well on this roadtrip. 1-2 against the Yankees isn’t horrible; 1-1 against the Jays is better than it seems, but perhaps less than it could have been; the 0-2 against the Red Sox isn’t as bad as you might think, but again, good teams do better.
But good teams also struggle at various times during the year. On May 12 of last year, The Yankees were two games under .500, but that didn’t stop them from steamrolling their way into the playoffs. Before getting healthy against the Nationals, the St. Louis Cardinals—whom everyone expects to be the class of the NL Central—went 3-7 to lose their stranglehold on the division lead. Every team in baseball will have a 4-6 stretch or worse this season, that’s the way the game is.
That said, it does matter that the Twins couldn’t take at least one game from the Red Sox. It would have been beneficial to win at least one of those games, but as I noted in the preview, Lester and Buchholz are their best pitchers right now and they are better than their nearly .500 record. I’m not looking to excuse the fact that they didn’t play particularly well in either game, it’s just the way things are.
Though it adds to the frustration while watching the games, the fact that the Twins were still getting a fair number of runners on base is a good sign. Over the roadtrip, the Twins hit .237/.307/.366,well under their season line of .270/.350/.419, but a sign that what they seemed to be missing was just the one big hit. Other than the second game in the Bronx and the second game in Toronto, the Twins were in all of the games of the roadtrip, even the ones they’d go on to lose. One hit that falls in here or there could have been the difference in many of those games.
I know that the fact that they didn’t get those big hits is a sign of their opponents’ effectiveness, but if Sabermetrics teaches us anything, it teaches that other than walks, strikeouts, and home runs, pitchers don’t have much control over what happens on a ball that’s put in play. Similar performance could have resulted in a much more positive roadtrip with just a few lucky bounces.
Ultimately, what’s done is done. The Twins are now tied for first place heading into interleague play, and now is the perfect time to put a tough stretch behind them and get back to their winning ways at home.
The Brewers are underperforming right now and badly. Yes, I was bullish when I picked them to win the NL Central before the season, but with a 16-25 record, they’re working their way out of contention and it’s not even June. They finally snapped a nine game losing streak Thursday night by beating the Pittsburgh Pirates, but it’s been tough sledding in the month of May for the Brewers.
Since the month began, they’ve gone 7-11 (Hey, Slurpie time!) and if you had Casey McGehee as the team’s OPS champ—among those with more than 20 ABs—well, you win the pool.
Prince Fielder is hitting better now that the weather is getting warm, but Rickie Weeks hasn’t been able to sustain his hot start. Corey Hart and Ryan Braun are producing, but Alcides Escobar has been disappointing in his first few months with the team. Ultimately, their hitting is probably going to be ok once Fielder rounds into form; if Weeks remembers how to draw a walk, so much the better. But a league average offense won’t be enough for this team because their pitching has been nothing short of putrid.
They hold the third worst ERA in baseball at 5.23, over a run worse than the Twins’ 3.94 mark, and opponents are hitting nearly .300 off their staff, .288 to be exact. Yovani Gallardo is still a shutdown ace, which skews their numbers a little bit. Without his 2.89 ERA, the Brewers are even worse off, their team ERA ballooning by almost half a run to 5.63.
Somewhat unfortunately, the Twins will face Gallardo on Saturday, so they won’t get the full benefit of the Brewers’ ineffectiveness, but a pretty porous bullpen will more than make up for that scheduling disappointment.
Game One
Dave Bush is keeping the Brewers in games, but rarely pitching deep enough into them put the game on ice. He has three quality starts in his past four appearances, but has pitched past the sixth inning just twice this season. He’s unlikely to give up a ton of runs (say, more than five), but he’s given up three runs in half of his starts this season, so the Twins should be able to plate at least a couple. Patience is a virtue against everyone in the Brewers’ rotation, and Bush is no exception, as he’s walked fewer than three hitters in just three of his starts.
Remember that time when a whole bunch of people maligned Nick Blackburn after a couple bad starts? Well, they’ve been awfully quiet lately, since Blackburn has rightfully won his last three decisions—all quality starts—including a complete game win over Detroit. He pitched extremely well against the Yankees, but was nearly given a bad loss until Jason Kubel changed the story of the series. Right-handed batters are hitting Blackburn more consistently, hitting .327 against him versus .294 for lefties, but port-siders are hitting him harder, with an OPS of .873 against him versus .861 for righties.
Something’s got to give in this game as Blackburn is much better at home and Bush is much better on the road. Either way, this game isn’t going to be a 2-1 duel. Runs are going to score, but the winning pitcher will be the one who continues to do what he does best: Bend, but do not break.
Game Two
There’s a much longer piece on Kevin Slowey in the offing, but Parker Hageman is—as always—doing yeoman’s work at Over The Baggy on Slowey’s issues so far this season. His last start was an improvement over his previous effort, but it was still less than the Twins would like to see out of a pitcher with control as good as his. I’m pretty optimistic when it comes to all things Slowey, so perhaps I’m undervaluing the effects of his wrist injury, but I still feel like he’ll turn a corner eventually this season.
Like Blackburn, Slowey is having more trouble with right-handed hitters and getting hit harder on the road than at home. He’s dominated the Brewers over his career, holding the team to a .182/.211/.288 line in four starts against the team. The Twins will need that pattern to continue because Slowey will square off against the Brewers’ ace.
Gallardo as been a beacon of hope in the Brewers slough of mediocre pitchers. After getting roughed up by St. Louis in his second start of the year, Gallardo has been difficult to score against. He’s hasn’t allowed more than two runs since that start on April 10, but, like Slowey and Bush, hasn’t been pitching deep into games. When he’s on the mound, the Brewers are unstoppable, but he simply isn’t out there very long. The Twins simply have to be patient in this game. Gallardo’s biggest weakness is that he walks too many hitters in pursuit of strikeouts; he’s walking nearly five per nine innings. Not only do those walks put runners on base, they drive up his pitch count, making him less likely to get out of the fifth or sixth inning.
No one has had particular success against him, but with right-handers hitting a paltry .208 against him, it might be a good chance to sit Michael Cuddyer, who has yet to get a day off this year, and who foundering in May to the tune of .208/.289/.353.
Game Three
Manny Para gets the start for the Brewers, replacing Doug Davis, who will be out for a few weeks with pericarditis—an inflammation of the sac that surrounds the heart. He was solid in his first start, allowing just one run over four innings against the Reds, though he lasted just four innings. He’ll be on something of a pitchcount again, so expect this to be less “Manny Para” and more “Manny Para and Friends”.
Carl Pavano continues to puzzle Twins fans with his occasional…how to put this elegantly…secondary performance. He’s currently 4-4 with a 4.11 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP, but if you take out his two turrible starts against the Royals and most recently against the Jays, his ERA drops to 2.09 and his WHIP to 0.93. His .500 record just doesn’t do him justice. In any case, he hasn’t yet had two consecutive horrible starts, so I’m hopeful about this upcoming. I don’t think anyone thought he’d be this type of pitcher for the Twins, what remains to be seen is if he’ll hold up for a full season or if his performance will fade as the year wears on.
It’s unfortunate that the Brewers are in the midst of remodeling their bullpen, as it now has a chance to actually prevent runs. They still aren’t a solid squad, but with Trevor Hoffman getting time off to fix his mechanics, they’re better than they were.
It looks like J.J. Hardy will miss the series against his old club, but Carlos Gomez should return to the Brewers’ lineup at some point during the series. Trevor Plouffe will make his big league debut in Hardy’s stead on Friday.
Conclusion:
The Twins need, and ought, to take at least two of three in this series. They can absolutely beat Para and Bush, and while they might not break through against Gallardo, they’ll get a good shot at the Brewers’ pen. The reason I say they need to win at least two of these games was outlined in Joe Sheehan’s latest newsletter, which I cannot recommend highly enough, as well as in Marc Normandin’s piece on ESPN’s TMI blog. The Twins are a phenomenal interleague team, one of the very best in baseball, but because of…abnormalities in the scheduling, they’ll play the Phillies when the Tigers get the Pirates. The Twins rely on a superior interleague record to help boost their chances of making the postseason, they did it last year, they did it in 2006 and 2007, it’s what they do. Making hay in the games they should be winning will help give them a cushion should they stumble against the Phillies.
It’s another quick series for the Twins, and one that will determine how successful their roadtrip is. They’re 2-3 so far against two quality opponents. It’s hard to be upset about that, but 2-5 looks a whole lot worse, and 4-3 is downright laudable, so there’s a lot left to do.
Much like the Yankees’ series, the pitching matchups don’t really tip to one team or another.
Game One
Clay Buchholz is off to a really solid start. He’s yet to really pitch them out of a game, and while the strikeout numbers aren’t there yet, he’s given them a chance to win pretty much all of his starts.
No Twin has more than four at-bats against him, so it’s pretty much Tabula Rasa as far as that’s concerned, but Buchholz’s walk rate of 4.8 BB/9 ought to clue you in to what the Twins need to be looking to do. (Hint: It’s be patient and force him pitch in the zone.)
Scott Baker’s final line against the Yankees undersells how he pitched. The last two runs were charged to him after the bullpen was unable to hold the Yankees at bay, which is how the cookie crumbles sometimes, but he pitched better than it looks like he did. Nevertheless, he’s been pitching well lately and I fully expect that to continue. Though the Twins haven’t played well against the Red Sox in the past, Baker hasn’t been particularly victimized by them, though Adrian Beltre has caused him some consternation in the past.
Game Two
John Lester hasn’t rounded into form like he did at the beginning of last season, but he’s still been the Sox’s best starter. He gave up four runs on four hits with four walks in his last start against the Tigers, but prior to that he’d rattled off four consecutive starts allowing fewer than three runs. He’s a strikeout machine, and while he’ll walk a couple, the Twins aren’t going to be able to just wait him out and hope he doesn’t hit his spots. Fortunately, Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, and…Brendan Harris, have hit Lester well over their careers. With any luck, they’ll be able to capitalize on a Lester mistake, which is probably what it’s going to take to score against him.
Liriano wasn’t the textbook definition of a hard-luck loser in New York, but with a few base hits falling in the other way, he could have won that game without pitching any better. His last time out against the Red Sox, Liriano made his first of three starts that had everyone proclaiming his return to 2006 form. He’s hit a bit of a rough patch since, but even so, he’s been one of the Twins’ best pitchers. I doubt he shuts the Sox down for another seven innings like he did last time, but I didn’t think he’d do it then either.
Conclusion
Split. The Twins are in something of a slump right now, not because of their own poor performance, but they just aren’t getting the bounces a team on fire gets. My sense is that Baker locks up game one and despite his best efforts to the contrary, Liriano gets the short end of the stick again. The Pesky Pole and short porch in right will be a sexy target for the Twins’ lefties, so I’m backing Morneau for his 12th home run and maybe one from Mauer, though he has just three extra-base hits in his last 10 games.
As a final thought, I see this—even more than the series in New York—as a something of a playoff series. Perhaps not in its intensity or meaning, but in the sense that they are going to a place where they have not played well, against the opponent’s top pitchers, needing at least one win and really hoping for two. A split won’t bother me, but a sweep either way will give me pause. Ultimately, just like in New York, it’s a couple games in the season’s second month. It means more in the touchy-feely, ethereal sense than in the standings, but at some point this year, it would be nice to see the Twins walk into Comerica, Yankee Stadium, Fenway, or Tropicana and really punch someone in the mouth and sweep a big series on the road. They did it in Anaheim at the start of the season, but that’s losing its luster with every series the Angels lose.
There’s a lot of hyperbole circulating about this weekend’s series against the Yankee. I agree that it’s a big deal, but it’s no bigger than any other series against a potential playoff opponent. Yes, the Yankees dominated the Twins last year, and yes, the Twins typically don’t play well in the Bronx. But to borrow a phrase from every stock brokerage commercial ever: Past performance does not guarantee future results.
The Twins will miss C.C. Sabathia, who pitched Thursday in a loss, and likely Phil Hughes, which gives them an advantage in this series. Hughes could pop up in Game Three, but I doubt it, more on this later.
The Yanks are a little out of sorts right now. The rainout and subsequent doubleheader knocked their rotation out of whack, mitigated somewhat by the return of Andy Pettitte. Injuries have hit them early this season, with Curtis Granderson and Nick Johnson on the shelf and Jorge Posada and Robbie Cano playing a little dinged up.
They’ve gotten solid contributions from Brett Gardner and Francisco Cervelli, but the fact remains that they aren’t the Yankees team of last year’s second half that could simply outpitch, outhit, and outrun an opponent. They may yet get there, but they are beatable right now, as Detroit showed by taking three of four from the Bronx bombers and shutting them out twice.
Game One pits two pitchers coming off of opposite starts.
Scott Baker bounced back from two bad starts to give the Twins two really good ones in their last homestand. He’s limiting his home runs allowed, which is a huge key to his success, and if he can keep his walks down—as he did in his last start against the Orioles—he’s likely to give the Twins another solid start. Mark Teixeira is one of Baker’s great nemeses as he’s gone 4-for-7 with a home run against him. Not a large sample, to be sure, but a matchup that’s worth watching.
A.J. Burnett was sailing to open the season, including back-to-back shut down starts against the Orioles before turning in a horrendous effort against the Red Sox last Sunday. He’s not striking out as many hitters as he has in the past—his K/9 is down to 6.4 from a career average of 8.3—but is still having good success forcing hitters to put the ball in play. Joe Mauer, Delmon Young, and Justin Morneau have all had reasonably good success against the righty over their careers, but none has more than 20 ABs against him. By comparison, Jim Thome has 30 career ABs against Burnett and has stuck out in 11 of them.
Game Two shapes up to be toughest game of the series for both teams, one which could easily be decided by one bad pitch by either starter.
Francisco Liriano had the best bad start I’ve seen in a long time his last time out. Yeah, he allowed 10 hits and five runs over six innings, but if three of those balls were hard-hit, I missed one. It was “Death by 1000 Cuts” or “What the 2002-2008 Twins Were Hated For”. It was his worst start of the year, but unless that happens again, I won’t be too concerned. These things happen to everyone, even the best aren’t immune. It’s basically not worth talking about the Yankees’ hitters versus Liriano over the course of their career since he’s a fundamentally different pitcher than he was before, but Marcus Thames is 4-for-9 with three home runs against him.
Andy Pettitte wasn’t a lock to make this start after missing his last time through the rotation with elbow soreness, but he’s back, due in no small part to the rotation jumble the Yankees face after their doubleheader. Pettitte has been really good this season, giving up more than two runs in a start just once so far and allowing just one home run in 34 innings of work. If he’s on his game, he’ll force the Twins to be very efficient in their offense, something they haven’t really done this season. Of the seven Twins with 10 or more ABs against Pettitte, five have batting averages over .350, though he’s allowed just two home runs to the current Twins lineup. The Twins should put a decent number of runners on against Pettitte, but their ability to get the decisive hit when they need it will determine whether or not they can give Pettitte his first loss of 2010.
Game Three would have been a much rougher draw for the Twins had the Yankees remained on their normal rotation, as they would have faced the red-hot Phil Hughes rather than Sergio Mitre.
Since returning from a family emergency, Nick Blackburn has put together back-to-back quality starts. He shut down the Orioles in his most recent start and held the Tigers more or less in check in the start immediately preceding that. Blackburn drew a lot of flak early in the season for not pitching well at all after signing his new contract this offseason, but he is the same pitcher who threw nine consecutive quality starts in the middle of last season. Yes, he’s the Twins fourth or fifth best starter, but he’s entirely capable of turning in a line of really solid performances. He was as good as anyone in the Orioles series, but with the big bats of the Yankees in their matchbox of a park, I’m a little concerned about him in this start. Teixeira is 6-for-6 with a bomb lifetime against Blackburn, so…that’s not promising.
Blackburn faces Sergio Mitre, who started in Andy Pettitte’s place last time through the rotation. He gave up three earned runs and one jack in his 4 1/3 innings of work against the Tigers. He generated 10 groundball outs, however, something he’ll look to do again. If the Twins can get into the Yankees’ bullpen early in the series, they may get an extra long look at Mtire, who is not used to pitching more than 3-4 innings.
Something to watch for in all three games is the Yankees’ running game. Gardner is a very quick runner and one who gets pretty good jumps—he’s 16/17 in steals so far this season—and the Twins had some issues with the aggressive running style of the White Sox. The Yankees may try to exploit that flaw early and often, hopefully Mauer and Hudson have gotten their issues addressed. If not, it could be up to the pitchers to keep Gardner and, to a much lesser extent, Jeter off the bases.
Conclusion: It’s a tough call. On paper, I like the Twins’ chances Friday night, but Saturday and Sunday are too close for either team to be a rock-solid lock. Blackburn should be better than Mitre, but Mitre isn’t going to pitch the Yankees out of that game either. The X-factor here is the Yankees’ performance at home, where they are 10-2 this season. I don’t see either team sweeping, but either team could win 2-1. My hunch is that the Yankees give the Twins their second series loss of the season.
The Pale Hose roll into the Twin Cities Tuesday, and Ozzie Guillen’s favorable tweets aside, there’s really no love lost between these two teams. Save 2005, when the Sox won the World Series, the Twins really ruined the Sox’s best years recently. Gone are Dye and Podsednick, aged are Pierzynski and Konerko—though Paulie is killing the ball right now—and the team has been reduced to rebuilding on the fly.
Granted, I’d rather have Kenny Williams trying to rebuild a team on the fly than almost any other GM in baseball, but it’s not a pretty process and it’s clear to see that it’s fraught with pitfalls.
Alex Rios and Andruw Jones have proved to be prescient additions, and Jake Peavy looks like he’s gotten his feet under him, but even as those pieces fall into place, others are clearly poor fits.
This series comes down to the ability of guys like Juan Pierre, Gordon Beckham, and Alexei Ramirez, none of whom have an OBP over .310 or a batting average over .230, to get on base. The Sox were supposed to be a pitching, defense, and situational-hitting team, but they’ve simply found new sources of power.
It’s pretty emblematic of the Sox’s issues that they have a middle of the road slugging percentage and OPS—18th in baseball for both—but are just 24th in OBP and 29th in batting average. If they hit the ball, they are hitting it hard, but their lineup isn’t doing that from top to bottom. Get past Konerko, Jones, and to a lesser extent Quentin, and it’s pretty clear sailing until they bat next.
Game one pits Freddie Garcia against Kevin Slowey, which certainly would seem to be a matchup that favors the Twins. Garcia has been up and down this season, but definitely solid for a fifth starter. He’s alternated good and bad starts so far this season, and he was lucky-good last time out against the Royals. He allowed 10 hits, but no walks, and the Royals plated just two runs against him in six innings of work.
The key players in this game will be Delmon Young and Michael Cuddyer. Garcia has held lefties to a .186 BAA and a .626 OPS against, but righties have hurt him to the tune of a .347 BAA and a .957 OPS against. Joe Mauer has a .348/.444/.565 line against Garcia, one of the only lefties on the team to boast a positive mark against him.
Slowey has struggled with his pitch counts lately, having made it out of the sixth inning just once this season. He hasn’t pitched the Twins out of any games, but he just hasn’t been good, which is very disappointing. Slowey is always going to give up hits, but he’s walking hitters and getting hit hard, and those aren’t good things.
Slowey is exactly the type of pitcher who should be killing the Sox. He makes opposing hitters swing to get on and if he can force the Sox to do that, the Twins will be in business. If he’s sharp at all, this should be a bounceback start for him, but the true test will be if he can get out of the sixth inning.
I like the Twins to win this one and Slowey to make Juan Pierre look bad…or worse as the case may be.
Game Two will be a tough game for the Twins. John Danks has been the Sox’s best starter, no question about it. He’s yet to allow more than two runs in a start and has been pitching deep into games, which limits opposing teams’ ability to attack the soft part of the Sox’s bullpen (i.e. anyone besides Romo or Thornton).
I saw Danks’ first start of the season and he was sharp, but the Twins were willing to be aggressive with him, which I think is the wrong approach. He’s a lock to walk a couple, and the Twins should let him do that if he’s going to. Getting the big hit hasn’t been the Twins’ forte this season, but they’ll need to if they’re going to beat Danks.
Cuddyer, who was one of the key figures in game one, is the big man in this one as well. He’s 17-for-33 against with five home runs and four doubles against Danks for an overall line of .515/.543/1.091. The Twins have hit Danks well historically, but Danks hasn’t been this sharp historically, so we’ll see who wins out.
Other than one bad start against the Royals, Carl Pavano has been every bit as good as Danks, but has become the very definition of a hard-luck loser. Pavano lost both of his last two starts despite giving up just two earned runs in eight innings both times. I’ve got a sick feeling in the pit of my stomach that Pavano is going to be sharp in a loss for the third straight time.
The Sox are playing a lot better than they were when the season started, and with Danks on the mound, I like their chances to steal one. This series has a split written all over it. It’s a quick one, no doubt, and I’ve got to say, I’m with John Malkovich on this one.
The Twins opened Target Field in style, winning the first official game to be played there and taking all three series. They finished off the homestand with a 6-3 record, marred only by their inability to sweep Cleveland and Kansas City when they had the chance.
After nine at home, the Twins head out on a tour-de-AL-Central with three games each in KC, Detroit and Cleveland, including a stop on ESPN’s Wednesday Night Baseball in Detroit.
Before they get to that series, which will pit the Twins against the only AL Central team they haven’t faced yet this year, the Twins find themselves against a very familiar opponent.
The Royals will toss Luke Hochevar and Gil Meche in this series, just as they did over the weekend, but the Twins will dodge Zack Greinke this time around. Yes, they roughed him up when they faced him, but he’s still a front-line starter and looked much better in his last start against the Blue Jays; avoiding him is a good thing.
Game One:
When last I did a preview of a Twins/Royals game, I noted that as good as Carl Pavano had been so far this year, it was inevitable that he would come back to earth. After 11 hits and seven runs in just 3.1 innings, I think that’s pretty much exactly what happened. Pavano is a vet, I’m not worried about that start bleeding into this one, but it does illustrate the point: There is good Pavano and bad Pavano, one is a great back-end-of-the-rotation starter, the other will make it very difficult for your team to win. If good Pavano shows up, I like the Twins’ chances Friday night, but if he follows his two good starts with two bad ones, the Twins could find themselves with back-to-back losses for the first time this season.
Good or bad, Pavano will square off against Meche, who has just been bad this season. Meche has allowed lefties to hit .417 off of him in his two starts this year, with five of the 10 hits going for extra bases. This bodes well for most of the Twins’ lineup, especially with Joe Mauer expected to be back in the order. Perhaps a poor start from Meche will help Jason Kubel snap out of his early season funk (.180/.317/.320).
Game Two:
Nick Blackburn and Hochevar face off in the battle of “Oh please don’t meltdown” starters. While he didn’t get tagged with the loss, thanks to an Orlando Hudson home run, Blackburn was beaten pretty badly his last time out, as he gave up five runs on seven hits in five innings of work. Blackburn is at his best when he’s generating groundballs, which he really didn’t do in his last outing. So watch for that early, if Blackburn is getting hitters to roll over his pitches, he should go deep into the game and do so effectively.
Hochevar got a little lucky in his last start against the Twins. He put 11 hitters on base in his six innings of work, but gave up just three runs when the Twins were unable to get the critical hit. If he walks five again, he isn’t likely to get so lucky again. With both of these pitchers, it’s hard to guess how the game will go. Could it be a shootout that turns into a battle of bullpens? Sure. Could it be something of a pitchers’ duel? Not Lincecum/Santana, but 2-1 or 3-2 is a definite possibility. As noted last time out, any game that involves the KC bullpen for more than an inning or two is still up for grabs, so getting deep into Hochevar’s pitch count early would be a smart move for Twins hitters.
Game Three:
Kevin Slowey was dominant his last time out, getting 20 of his 24 outs via the groundball or strikeout. Most importantly, he walked no one. His nine strikeouts of a hack-tastic Cleveland order are impressive, and if they’re indicative of what’s to come, so much the better, but Slowey’s skill is in his control. If he comes out on Sunday and goes seven innings with fewer than two walks, that bodes well for the Twins whether or not he also strikes out a bunch. Righties have had a good bit more success against Slowey than port-siders, so watch out for Jose Guillen, who has been hitting everything in sight to start the year.
Slowey will face Brian Bannister, who had a very good start to the year, but fell apart in his last outing against the Blue Jays. Like Slowey, Bannister is looking to force opponents to put balls into play and limit his walks. He allowed twice as many free passes (four) in his last outing as he had in his previous two starts combined and it showed. The Twins are one of the most patient teams in baseball, so if his control fails him, the Twins aren’t going to help him out. That said, if he’s around the zone, the Twins are going to have to punish him on their own. His control isn’t as good as Slowey’s, but it is better than average.
The last series between these two ended with the Twins unable to get the big hit they needed and the Royals getting big hits from Alberto Callaspo. It remains to be seen if this will be a dominant theme for the Twins or if it was a momentary lapse. They will have their chances in this series, none of the Royals pitchers are immune to big innings or early exits, so it will be interesting to see if the Twins can exorcise those demons.
I’m really looking forward to the Slowey/Bannister matchup, which I think the Twins will win, but the other two are a crapshoot to me. There’s not enough data to divine which Pavano, Blackburn, or Hochevar will show up. Even if you write off Meche as not a threat, if his counterpart isn’t substantially better than he is, it could come down to big hits and timely hitting.
Ultimately, the X-factor in this series is the Royals bullpen. They aren’t good at locking down games that should be sure Royals wins and unreliable with close leads, so I’m giving the Twins this series 2-1 headed into their first really big series with Detroit.
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