It’s unlikely that the Twins will boast the AL MVP in 2010—Justin Morneau had a legitimate shot given his first half and Joe Mauer has been among baseball’s best in the second half, but the full-year efforts of Robinson Cano, Miguel Cabrera, and Josh Hamilton make it extremely tough to believe that a Twin will take the crown.

Francisco Liriano will absolutely get a few Cy Young votes, but Felix Hernandez, Trevor Cahill, and CC Sabathia are all likely to outpace him, so it looks like it will be an award-less year for the Twins.

Unless.

The last time a Twin won rookie of the year was some 15 years ago when Marty Cordova won the title for the 1995 Twins—then promptly taught fans what “plantar fasciitis” was and what it could do to even a talented player. They’ve had plenty of talented players since then, but Mauer was hurt his rookie year, Liriano was as well, and the rest had to grow into their skills. Could 2010 be the year they get their first since the 21^st century began?

Their hopes rest on Danny Valencia, a 19^th round pick out of the University of Miami, who made his debut on June 3, but didn’t see consistent action until the middle of July. It took injuries to the entire Twins infield—Morneau, Orlando Hudson, Alexi Casilla, and Nick Punto have all had at least one DL stint sometime between July 1 and the middle of August, while JJ Hardy missed substantial time due to a lingering wrist injury—to get Valencia the playing time he needed to make an impact.

Valencia became an everyday player on July 24, going 3-for-5 against the Orioles in game one of a four game stretch that saw him go 14-for-19 including a grand slam off Zack Greinke. Going into Wednesday night’s game against the Tigers, Valencia is hitting .338/.373/.496 since he forced his way into Ron Gardenhire’s day-to-day lineup and .328/.373/.446 overall since his call-up.

His defense, too, has been impressive as Valencia has made few rookie mistakes at third base and has amassed a solid UZR, albeit in too few innings to call it a full sample. Assuming he continues to play solid defense—something he did in the minors as well—he’ll finish 2010 among the best defenders in the majors at 3B (though behind Nick Punto…whatever that means).

Valencia wouldn’t crack the top five in the National League, not with Buster Posey, Jason Heyward, Steven Strasburg, Starlin Castro, and Gabby Sanchez locking down a tight race, but the AL race is much more open. And the lack of a truly obvious choice is what gives Valencia hope.

He already boasts the fourth highest VORP (value over replacement player) among rookies in the AL, despite having the second fewest plate appearances. Carlos Santana currently ranks third, but it seems unlikely that he’ll garner enough votes—stellar though he was while he played—because of his season ending injury, which leaves Valencia with two real competitors ahead of him and one serious threat behind him.

Brennan Boesch is Valencia’s nearest competitor, and if he had maintained his performance from the first half over the course of a full season, he’d be running away with this race.

His first-half line of .342/.397/.593 was a product of some combination of moderate skill, being an unknown commodity, and a whole bunch of luck. His .384 BABIP (batting average on balls in play) was ripe for regression, but who knew it would be so…stark. His BABIP in the second half fell to .191 as part of an overall drop in production that left him with a line of .153/.220/.227 and severely crippled his chances of winning the ROY. Nevertheless, his solid production isn’t going away and voters may still look favorably upon his contribution at the time when the Tigers’ injury woes were near their worst.

Rays catcher John Jaso is something of a dark horse in this race, as he wasn’t even listed among the Rays top 15 prospects heading into the season. Still, as the starting catcher for a team likely headed for a playoff berth and a possible AL East title, Jaso has earned the publicity he’s receiving. He’s hitting .280/.388/.396, which shows you his greatest strength as well as his biggest weakness.

Jaso’s plate discipline is outstanding; he’s walked some 47 times while striking out just 32 times in over 320 PAs, but he has just 21 extra-base hits over that same period. Jaso has the extra advantage of being a catcher, voters do love a catcher that hits well, but his OPS of 783 isn’t much above average (733) despite the fact that his OBP of .388 is vastly superior to the league average of .327.

While it’s possible that Jaso could win the award because of his position and increased visibility, it seems unlikely to me. He might have done enough to earn it in a down year, but voters have shown that they consider power an integral part of the equation when voting for any award and that’s not Jaso’s strong suit.

The front-runner here is another Tiger rookie, he of the .417 BABIP, Austin Jackson. While he may not have made fans forget about Curtis Granderson, he’s given them enough highlight reel material to make them hopeful for the future. Ultimately, it’s Jackson’s award to lose at this point. His defense has been better than expected and he’s been an offensive machine at the top of the Tigers’ lineup. He strikes out way too much, an AL best 138 going into play Wednesday, but that’s about the only bad thing you can say about the center fielder.

Jackson has had luck on his side—see his aforementioned BABIP—but his skill is no joke. His .304/.357/.406 line with 21 steals isn’t the product of a single hot month, or even one good half. Jackson started the year with a .364/.422/.495 in the months of March and April and while he’s cooled off just a little from there, he’s been a consistent hitter and a solid fielder for a Detroit team that has needed consistent production as their lineup has been in flux to say the least.

If the voting happened now, Jackson runs away with the award and you’d be hard pressed to say he didn’t deserve it, but Valencia has a chance to sway some voters because of the Twins battle in the AL Central.

Valencia doesn’t really have a chance to steal this award. The only way he’ll be the first Twin this millennium to win the ROY is if he continues to hit near .330, play stellar defense, and flash a little power. If he does that, he’ll deserve the award on his own merits, given that his performance will be on par with Jackson, albeit in fewer games. Like Jaso, simply being a key piece of a winning team won’t be enough to push Valencia over the edge, but with the AL Central looking like it will be a race worth watching deep into September, Valencia will get a chance to woo voters who might have missed his earlier exploits.

I’m on the search for a co-editor, co-owner, co-cool person to help run TwinsMVB.com with me. If you love the Twins and want to blog about it, watch the video and apply by emailing twinsmvb (at) gmail (dot) com.

PS. I apologize for the misplaced audio, I didn’t have time to fix it and I know it’s annoying.

PPS. If you notice what is wrong with this video (not counting the audio) leave a comment in the comments section and you could win a prize.

Click the link below for the Live Chat during tonight’s rubber match between the Twins and Angels on ESPN.

Click Here

I grabbed TwinsMVB contributor and founder of TwinsTarget.com, Andrew Kneeland, to talk Twins on a Friday afternoon. Have a listen!

After a rather boring All-Star break the Twins are back at it to start the second half of the season. John Meyer, the Twins MVB, has an audio version of the series preview. Take a listen!

The Twins spent July 5 with a bitter taste in their mouth. They lost three of four to the Rays despite outplaying them for huge swaths of the series. The bullpen coughed up late leads and was unable to stop the bleeding for Nick Blackburn in the finale, ending a run of really solid performances that had set up with the lowest bullpen ERA in the American League.

Losing three of four to the Rays isn’t a fate worse than death, but after poor performances against the Mets and Brewers, it feels bigger than it was. It’s hard to play a good team, beat them fairly soundly, but watch the games fade away at the end. Making matters worse is the surge of the White Sox and the consistent play of the Tigers; both teams are asserting their belief that this division is still ripe for the taking, and indeed it is.

The Twins go into Toronto needing a win less for the standings than for their mental state, but the Jays are in need of wins of their own.

Like the Twins, the Jays are reeling. They power that brought them notoriety in the early part of their season has all but dried up, and they’ve lost their last four series—including a four game sweep by the Indians—as a result. With the All-Star Break less than a week away, and both teams reeling, it would be easy to be hyperbolic about this series being a litmus test for the rest of the season or proof that the Twins need to add Adam Dunn/Cliff Lee/Diego Forlan before the deadline. I view this series more or less as a series that a good team should win.

Carl Pavano, he of the unholy ‘stache, got rocked his last time in Toronto, but has been the Twins’ best pitcher since that shelling. If he can maintain his current form rather than the form he showed when last the Twins left American soil, he gives them the best chance to win, especially since his mound opponent has an ERA barely under seven and a WHIP over 1.50.

Kevin Slowey has been a tough pitcher to pin down. He’s been really good in wins: 2.40 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP with a .291 BABIP, but he’s pitched the Twins out of a number of games with his 7.71 ERA and 1.75 WHIP in losses. It’s not hard to see the difference, he’s pitched about the same in both, but his BABIP rises to .365, meaning he’s giving up hits on over 1/3rd of balls in play. Havingg JJ Hardy back will help, but if the balls are hit where his defenders ain’t, Slowey will struggle.

Scott Baker hasn’t been as bipolar as Slowey, but he too has been both great and terrible, sometimes alternating starts. In his seven wins, Baker holds an ERA of 2.02 and a WHIP of 0.92, while in losses his WHIP doubles to 1.81 and his ERA rises to 8.12. He struggles the second time through the order, so if he makes it through the fourth and fifth without too much damage, it bodes well for the Twins.

Whether the offense shows up or not is anyone’s guess. Joe Mauer has been hitting better over the last few games, as has Michael Cuddyer, but Jason Kubel and Denard Span haven’t been as strong. Justin Morneau has been the Twins offensive powerhouse for most of the season and they’ll need him to be at his best if they’re going to match the Jays’ offensive potential.

I like the Twins to win at least two in this series. They’ll miss both Ricky Romero and Shaun Marcum, which is a great stroke of luck, and if the Jays continue to see their flyballs die at the wall instead of going over it, they could struggle to score runs. Slowey and Baker will need their luck to hold rather than swing the other direction—both won their last start and neither has won back-to-back starts since the beginning of May.

As I noted in the opening, this is the type of series that a good team will win. There’s half a season left, no game is a must win at this point, but if the Twins would like an August and September that isn’t marked by stress and worry, these are the games they’ll need to win to give themselves a comfortable lead.

After a satisfying series victory over the divisional rival Detroit Tigers, the Twins will end their homestand with a four-game set against the Tampa Bay Rays.

Tampa Bay started the season off on an excellent note, perching themselves atop the American League East while the Yankees and Red Sox tried to re-group. Now, though, the Rays have struggled to maintain their pitching prowess, and have slipped in the standings.

Still one of the best teams in baseball, though, the Rays will be trying to accomplish the same thing as the Twins during this series: closing the door on a rotten June in an attempt to get back on track in July.

Game One – Jeff Niemann (6-2, 2.72) vs. Carl Pavano (9-6, 3.33)

Niemann, 27, was a major factor into Tampa Bay’s incredible start to the season, posting a 2.38 ERA through the month of May. Like his team, though, Niemann took a step back in June. This step back has been minimal, but could be the start of a major regression.

Despite coming off two successful starts against National League squads, Niemann is a classic example of a pitcher with artificially impressive stats. With an extremely low BABIP, a low line drive percentage, and a very high strand rate, it’s not a question of whether or not Niemann will regress; it’s a question of when.

While he’s certainly not as good of a pitcher as his stats suggest, Niemann may not return to earth for quite a while. The longer he keeps up this façade, though, the harder his fall will be.

Pavano’s success, meanwhile, appears to be more a result of ability. Although he has the benefit of a low BABIP and high strand rate, Pavano hasn’t given up any fewer line drives than is usual for the 34-year old. His overall talent level is probably worse than his current 3.33 ERA, but to expect a 4.00 ERA on the season would be fair.

Though not the case for most Twins, the month of June has been extremely friendly to Pavano. Coming off two consecutive complete games, Pavano has an ERA of 2.25 through 40 June innings. Pavano (and teammate Francisco Liriano) have been paramount to Minnesota’s ability to avoid a free-fall this month.

Both BJ Upton and Carl Crawford have dealt with minor bumps and buises these past few days, and they may miss a game or two during this series.

Game Two – David Price (11-3, 2.44) vs. Scott Baker (4-7, 4.97)

A few weeks ago, David Price was in the same boat as Niemann; a lucky pitcher who would likely plummet back to a more realistic realm. Instead of regressing, though, Price seems to be finally tapping into his incredible potential.

Price, 24, has marginal success last year with basically two pitches: a four-seam fastball and a slider. This season Price has introduced two new pitches: a curveball and a two-seam fastball. With the ability to better deceive opposing batters, Price has had great success in 2010. His ERA won’t stay below 2.50 for too long, and he won’t be able to strand nearly as many runners as he is now, but Price, the first overall pick in the 2007 draft, has started to realize his potential. Which should frighten batters across the American League.

Baker has been one of the most disappointing players for Minnesota this season. A career 4.36 ERA pitcher, Baker’s near-5.00 ERA this season has angered many fans. Looking at the stats, though, shows that Baker has BABIP slightly higher than is usual for the right-hander, and that more fly balls than usual are ending up as home runs. Both of these will likely regress eventually, though, Minnesota fans could be treated to a start along the lines of Baker’s most recent.

Game Three – Wade Davis (5-9, 4.68) vs. Francisco Liriano (6-6, 3.47)

When looking at opposing pitchers in these series previews, I usually make sure to mention whether or not that pitcher has had “luck” on their side. In Davis’ case, though, his poor stats are simply because he hasn’t pitched very well.

Whether his issues are mental or mechanical isn’t necessarily known, but he has garned far fewer swinging strikes than in the past. This lack of deception has greatly hurt his stats, and Price could be replaced by top prospect Jeremy Hellickson very soon.

Liriano has been one of the best pitchers in the American League this season, and “luck” hasn’t played too big a factor in his success. He will give up more home runs per fly ball than he is now, but all signs point back to the biggest reason for Liriano’s success: his improved slider.

Game Four – James Shields (6-8, 4.76) vs. Nick Blackburn (7-5, 6.02)

On the face of things, it appears that Shields has been unimpressive this season. When trying to root out the reason for this mediocrity, though, I can’t find any glaring abnormalities. Most of his batted-ball and plate discipline stats have remained the same from years past, as Shields is still inducing plenty of ground balls and getting ahead in the count at a very impressive clip.

So why is the ground-ball pitcher struggling? For one, his BABIP is slightly higher, but something intangible is also a likely culprit. In any case, Shields hasn’t been very effective this season, and there is no reason to believe that his mediocrity will end against the Twins.

Blackburn has also struggled to get batters out this year, but we can pinpoint exactly what is ailing the 28-year old righty: He just isn’t very good. He is dead-last in the league in strikeouts per nine innings, and when he throws a pitch in the strike zone, opposing batters make contact an astounding 96.6 percent of the time, which is also tops in the league.

Marginally successful for the past few years, Blackburn relied upon his extremely accurate arm to paint the corners of the plate and walk very few opposing batters. This year, however, it appears the league knows that most of Blackburn’s pitches are hittable.

Another version of Good Twin, Bad Twin, and a Thought on June 29th.

Good Twin: Denard Span becomes the first player since Rafael Furcal in 2002 to hit three triples in one game. Span was all over Target Field tonight going 4-4 with two runs and five RBIs. Doesn’t get much better than that.

Bad Twin: Justin Morneau looked confused tonight with three ugly strikeouts. Morneau was 1-5 and left three runners on base. But at least Justin Bieber, who was performing next door at the Target Center, likes him.

Thought: Although the Twins regained first place in the AL Central with their defeat against the Detroit Tigers, Cliff Lee pitched his third consecutive complete game for the Seattle Mariners defeating the mighty New York Yankees. Just saying.

My thoughts on the start of a big series tonight at Target Field. I’ll be at the stadium in section 219 if you want to stop by and say hello.