This week’s Fan Friday comes from a Twins fan all the way out in Washington, D.C. Thanks to Eric Olson for giving his thoughts on the Twins. For more from Olson check out his blog Call to the Pen.
One of the strangest things about the roster this season is the absolute paucity of outfielders on both the 25-man (active) roster and the 40-man roster. The current outfielders on these rosters consist of the following: ‘elmon Young, Denard Span, Michael Cuddyer, and a reanimated corpse. Er, Jason Kubel (you can’t fault me, he plays the outfield a bit like a zombie). That’s both the beginning and the end of the list. In theory, Nick Punto, Alexi Casilla, and/or Matt Tolbert (if and when he is in the bigs) are the back-up outfielders. This notion is offensive to me, and I sure hope it is to people reading as well.
Of those “outfielders” on the roster, Jason Kubel is not an outfielder. He’s a DH that keeps getting pressed into OF duties because Gardy is incapable of not starting Jim Thome three games out of five and Gardy doesn’t trust ‘elmon. Michael Cuddyer’s ideal role is probably that of part-time outfielder and part-time right-handed platoon designated hitter. It’s hard to express how bad he’s been in the outfield the last few years according to UZR, which we now know was not an artifact of the baggie, as he turned in far superior numbers in the ‘Dome than on the road. ‘elmon Young is also beginning to look like his range in LF is simply not going to improve, regardless of his weight loss and slightly increased speed. He needs to be moved to RF ASAP (especially given the powerful arm we’ve witnessed), or else there’s a decent chance he’ll also trend toward being a part-time DH part-time OF. Denard Span is a great lead-off hitter, but his defense in center-field is suspect at best, as the last few series have pointed out. His arm is simply not strong enough to be a great centerfielder either. The big problem pointed out in this paragraph? There are simply not enough DH slots to go around, especially given the presence of Thome, who Gardy is driven to play three or four times a week, regardless of the painful obviousness of his reduced bat speed.
So, we really have about a sum total of 2½ outfielders on the roster right now, when you factor in the fact that Span is legit, and the others are partial outfielders. So what options are there right now? Well, in AAA, the Twins have currently stashed veterans Jacque Jones and Jason Repko, both of whom are playing pretty well, but are not good enough to take away the day jobs of the current outfielders. One of them would be a great backup outfielder on the 25-man roster, but given that neither are on the 40-man roster and the Twins have as of yet refused to make a move on the 40-man to accommodate the outstanding Anthony Slama, don’t hold your breath.
So, that’s the current outfield situation. It’s certainly not ideal, and the Twins’ flyball pitchers have certainly been punished with the lack of outfield defense. But this is a forward-looking piece. The Twins have a wealth of great outfield prospects, several of which are nearing their major-league debuts in the next couple years. In fact, there’s a good chance we’ll have a major outfield logjam in the coming years! So, let’s look at the future!
Michael Cuddyer is under contract through 2011, as the Twins exercised his option for the 2011 series last off-season. I think the Twins will likely make a perfunctory move at re-signing him, so as not to anger the casual fans, who generally love Cuddyer, but will let him walk in the end.
‘elmon Young has either one or two arbitration years remaining.
Jason Kubel is in the final year of a two-year deal, but there is a team option for $5.25 million for 2011.
Denard Span just signed a five-year contract. He’ll be here for a while.
Here are the up-and-comers. I’m only looking at the players that have a legitimate chance of being long-term starters for the Twins, so players like Jacque Jones, Jason Repko, and Jason Pridie. Those guys are at best backups at this point, with the possible exception of Repko:
Aaron Hicks – The near-consensus number one prospect in the Twins system is currently playing in the Low-A Midwest League for the Beloit Snappers. He might be the best defensive centerfielder in the system, and has an incredible arm that was honed from years of throwing 95-mph fastballs. Can you say, “Position player pitching?” That said, he is only 21, and still has a long way to go. The earliest we’ll probably see him on the big club, barring a raft of injuries or an explosion in his numbers, is September 2012 or sometime in 2013. He is seen as a Torii Hunter/Kirby Puckett type player, and is likely the Twins next long-term center-fielder.
Ben Revere – Revere is a top-five Twins prospect, depending on how much stock you put in the dismal reports of his defense. Revere is really, really fast, but his arm is suspect, and he uses his speed to compensate for the fact that he takes some incredibly strange routes to get to the ball (remind you of anyone? GoGo (minus the arm strength)?) That said, Revere might be the best hitter in the Twins system. He has little power, but he hits for an insane average; he flirted with hitting .400 in 2008, and even though his triple-slash stats declined in 2009, that is to be expect in the (extremely) pitcher-friendly atmosphere of the 2009 Florida State League. Right now Revere is in AA New Britain, and might be the most likely call-up in the event of a serious injury to Denard Span. The problem with Revere is his lack of power and arm strength. He may not have the arm strength to play in CF long-term, but doesn’t have the power to take a corner outfield role (but then again, the Twins have put little stock in the traditional hitting requirements for corner positions; for cripes’ sake, Punto is STILL playing 2B).
Angel Morales – When Morales was drafted in 2007, he was seen by many to be a light-hitting outfielder with incredible speed and great defense. To the surprise of many, including yours truly, he turned into possibly the best power prospect the Twins have had since Jason Kubel. Morales will be in Class A Fort Myers this season, and should stay there all year. We could see him in a Minnesota Twins uniform as soon as 2012 if he continues at his current pace, and manages to curb his (excessive) strikeout rate. A constant comparison I have heard is Carlos Beltran, and if he continues, he could be the next great Puerto Rican MLB player.
Rene Tosoni – The MVP of last year’s Futures Game follows Justin Morneau in the Twins’ Canadian ranks. Tosoni is arguably the most complete and ready player of the ones I’ll mention here, but he also probably doesn’t have a long-term role with the Twins, due to the high level of competition on this list. I’d be surprised if we don’t see Tosoni this season at some point, most likely in September. He’s a definite candidate to be added to the 40-man roster at some near point in the future. Tosoni has trouble with left-handed pitching, and could be a very good number 2, 5, or 6 hitter in the future against righties. I fully expect Tosoni to be traded in the next two years, and he could yield a decent position player or a good pitching prospect in return. That said, you never know.
Joe Benson – The last prospect I’ll look at today is Benson. I don’t know as much about Benson, but many people rank him as the third-best outfield prospect in the Twins system after Aaron Hicks and Angel Morales, due to Revere’s problems. Revere has very good on-base numbers, and isn’t a slouch in the power department. We could see him in 2012, if he isn’t traded or doesn’t get injured (like he did after breaking his hand/wrist after punching a concrete wall in 2009).
So where does the outfield go in the future? Here are my guesses, and I’d sure be interested to see what you all think in the comments (in the order of LF, CF, and RF):
2010: ‘elmon Young, Denard Span, Michael Cuddyer
2011: Denard Span, Ben Revere, Michael Cuddyer (I think Young gets traded this off-season for something long-term at 2B or 3B).
Guerra has made two starts so far this season, and has a 4.91 ERA through 11 innings. His WHIP is just above 1, but he isn’t striking out as many as he had in the past. Guerra ended last season with the Rock Cats, and pitched 62.2 innings with a 5.17 ERA and seven strikeouts per nine innings. This year, though, Guerra has yet to walk a batter.
14. Tyler Robertson, LH-SP, New Britain
Robertson is making his first appearance in the Florida State League this year, and has made two less-than-stellar starts so far. His ERA is 5.40, his WHIP 1.500, and he has managed to last a combined total of just 6.2 innings. It’s early, but Robertson has struck out just two batters, and opponents are hitting .333 off him. Robertson has induced more fly-outs than ground-outs, which is troubling.
13. Rene Tosoni, OF, New Britain
Tosoni has had a monster start to the season, and is hitting .432/.488/.649 in the first ten games of his second year at Double-A. On Monday, Tosoni went 4-4 with a double, home run, and stolen base. The sample-size is obviously very small, but Tosoni has hit equally well against both right- and left-handers. His inability to hit against southpaws throughout his career is probably his biggest drawback. If he can figure out left-handers, there is no reason why he can’t be a candidate for a late-season call-up.
12. BJ Hermsen, RH-SP, EST
Hermsen hasn’t compiled any stats so far this year, which could be because he is participating in Extended Spring Training. After EST, Hermsen could either go back to the Gulf Coast League, or advance to the Beloit rotation.
11. David Bromberg, RH-SP, New Britain
In his two starts so far this season, Bromberg has looked great. He has just 11 innings under his belt, but Bromberg has an ERA of 0.82, and opponents are hitting just .139 off him. This is Bromberg’s first year of Double-A, and he is limiting his base-runners while striking out plenty.
10. Miguel Angel Sano, SS/3B/OF, EST?
Sano will most likely play for the GCL Twins this season. They haven’t started playing games yet.
9. Joe Benson, OF, New Britain Rock Cats
Benson performed well in the Florida State League last year, and made the jump to Double-A this season. Through ten games, Bromberg is hitting .216/.326/.351 with one home run, and he has four stolen bases. As Benson gets accustomed to the environs of Double-A, his production will greatly improve.
8. Chris Parmelee, 1B/DH, New Britain
Parmelee was given a relatively unexpected promotion to New Britain to start the 2010 season, and has shown his power right out of the gate. Through ten games, Parmelee is hitting .250/.304/.475 with two home runs and three doubles. We’ve yet to see how his defense looks, which is the biggest issue with Parmelee. Should he prove capable of playing adequate first base or corner outfield defense, his value as a prospect will shoot up.
7. Adrian Salcedo, RH-SP, EST
Like Hermsen, Salcedo will likely start the year in Extended Spring Training before joining the Beloit rotation. He hasn’t thrown a competitive pitch yet this year.
6. Wilson Ramos, C, Rochester
After the Twins opted to give Ramos consistent playing time over a back-up catcher role with the big-league club, Ramos has hit .189/.211/.297 in nine games. He has one home run, but has a 10/1 K/BB ratio. This is his first year of Triple-A, and he clearly needs some time to re-gain his footing.
5. Kyle Gibson, RH-SP, Fort Myers
Gibson has made three starts so far this year for the Miracle, and has looked exceptional. He is striking out an average of 9.7 batters per nine innings, and has an ERA of 2.70. He has struck out 18 opposing batters, and given a free pass to just three. After a few more starts like these, Gibson could find his way to New Britain very soon.
4. Danny Valencia, 3B, Rochester
Valencia finished last season with the Red Wings, and is hitting .188/.250/.250 in his nine games in Rochester in 2010. The season is still very young, and he will get the hang of things eventually. When he does, Valencia stands a very good chance to make the big-league squad and attempt to take playing time away from Nick Punto and Brendan Harris at the hot corner.
3. Ben Revere, OF, New Britain
After a great showing in Spring Training, Revere started the 2010 season in New Britain. This is his first season in Double-A, and he is hitting .214/.353/.214 through eight games. He has two stolen bases in as many attempts. If he can get his bat working for him, Revere could find his way to Rochester by the end of the season.
2. Angel Morales, OF, Beloit Snappers
After hitting .266/.329/.455 with 40 extra-base hits at Beloit last season, Morales was denied a promotion to High-A and was sentenced to repeat Low-A and work on his very high strikeout rate. So far this year, not much has improved. Morales has struck out 12 times, while only drawing two walks. He’s still just 20 years old, though, and has plenty of time to develop plate discipline, which will be the main focus of 2010 for Morales.
1. Aaron Hicks, OF, Beloit
Hicks spent last season in Beloit, and wasn’t very impressive at the plate. This season, as a 20-year old, Hicks has hit .108/.233/.216 through ten games. The athleticism, speed, and plate discipline are all very advanced for Hicks, but the bat has yet to come around.
Snappy D. Turtle may not be chumming it up with the next Joe Mauer right now, but there certainly is a good deal of quality talent on the way to Target Field from Pohlman Field in Beloit, Wis.
The Beloit Snappers – a Class A affiliate of the Minnesota Twins – played their home opener this Sunday, April 11. They lost 2-0 to the Cubs’ Peoria Chiefs, but it wasn’t due to pitching.
Starter Brad Stillings threw five solid innings, giving up only three hits, one run and one walk alongside a strikeout and an infielder’s error in his first start of the season. Most impressive was how the 6’ 4” right-hander battled back from a situation with runners on second and third in the first inning. With one out, an attempted putout throw got past first baseman Michael Gonzales and Peoria outfielder Jose Valdez made it to third. Following the error, a walk, and a single to score Valdez, Stillings faced the minimum in his final four and two-thirds innings. He benefitted from a runner caught stealing at second base and a double play to end the fifth inning.
Although the Snappers showed some rust in the first inning, their defense was impressive in the final eight, including a handful of tough outfield rundowns. In the seventh through ninth innings, the pitching and defense was so solid that no Chiefs batters even reached first base.
One shouldn’t be worried about Stillings’s low number of innings pitched (five) since it’s still so early in the Midwest League season. That’s normal. Two other Snappers starters who pitched about as well as Stillings likewise went only five innings this year.
The other strong starts have come from Miguel Munoz and Liam Hendricks, who were picked up by the Twins organization as free agents in 2005 and 2007, respectively. Although they’ve been in the lower ranks for some time, they could be poised to make a difference after moving up to Beloit in 2010 following stints in Rookie ball with the Elizabethton (Tenn.) Twins in 2009.
Stillings was signed as a seventh-round draft pick last year. As he gains more experience in Beloit during the 2010 season, following just six starts in Elizabethton and one for Beloit in 2009, look for Stillings to reach the higher levels soon.
Stillings, Munoz, and Hendricks aren’t the only pitchers with potential to have seen time in Beloit. Kevin Slowey was with the Snappers in 2005. In fact, they’re having a Kevin Slowey bobblehead day August 1. Jeff Manship and Matt Garza also pitched in Beloit.
The Snappers were affiliated with the Milwaukee Brewers through 2004 and were actually known as the Beloit Brewers until 1994. Some of Milwaukee’s biggest names, or at least fan favorites, have played in Beloit. These include Prince Fielder, Rickie Weeks, Geoff Jenkins (rehab assignment in 2001), Paul Molitor (rehab assignment in 1990), and Greg Vaughn.
Some of your future favorite Twins at the plate may come through Beloit.
Aaron Hicks was in center field for the Snappers on Sunday. Hicks is the highest-ranked prospect in the Twins organization, according to a Baseball America insert section of the Snappers program.
Hicks is off to a slow start this season, hitting 1-14 after four games and 1-4 with two strikeouts on Sunday. However, he is poised to break out. His final at-bat on Sunday produced the hit, and he knows how to work the count. The 2008 first-round draft pick hit .251 and earned 40 walks with the Snappers in 2009. As his plate appearances increase, look for his statistics to likewise improve.
While we sit and wait for some meaningful news to float out of the Twins’ offices in Target Field, anticipating the future is one of the best ways to pass time.
As we saw last week, the Minnesota Twins have no shortage of elite outfield prospects. From the stars like Aaron Hicks and Ben Revere to the lesser-known Joe Benson, Angel Morales, Max Kepler, and Rene Tosoni, there is plenty of outfield talent in the Twins’ system.
Most of these guys are still quite a ways away from breaking into the major leagues, but by 2012, the Minnesota outfield could conceivably be bursting at the seams.
Currently, Denard Span and Michael Cuddyer are the best outfielders on the active roster, with Delmon Young and Jason Kubel close behind. Cuddyer is nearing the end of his contract, and will most likely finish his career with the Twins before Hicks reaches the Bigs. And Kubel is obviously better-suited for the role of a designated hitter.
That leaves Span and Young as the outfielders of the future, along with the hordes of minor league talent. Will all of these prospects find regular playing time? If so, where?
Most probably, Revere will be an offensive-minded corner outfielder with average defense. Hicks should be above-average both offensively and defensively, which makes him an ideal candidate for center field. Morales and Benson also have great defense, but their size and power may eventually push them to a corner. Tosoni’s lack of defense will relegate him to a corner, while Kepler is a complete wild card as this point.
(As a side note, you won’t necessarily see these guys playing in their designated/predicted spots this year in the minor leagues. I’m sure Hicks will get some time in the corner, while Revere, Morales, and maybe even Tosoni could get some reps in center field.
As a minor-leaguer, Span played almost exclusively in center field, but had to learn a corner position when he was promoted to the Twins because of the presence of Carlos Gomez. Hopefully Minnesota learned their lesson.)
The estimated-times-of-arrival for these players vary. Revere and Benson will beat Hicks and Morales to the major leagues by a year, Tosoni could be a September call-up as early as this season, while Kepler’s primary objective should be to finish his junior year of high school.
Outside of Tosoni, none of these prospects should be ready by the 2011 season, which very well could be Cuddyer’s last. Minnesota will most likely be forced to deal with an extremely crowded outfield for the 2012 season.
Span will most likely be shifted to the corner position opposite Revere, while Hicks will roam center field in Target Field in 2012. Admittedly, I have no idea what will happen with Young during these upcoming years. He could very well use the momentum he finished the 2009 campaign with and exceed all expectations, but he could just as easily fall flat on his face.
I do know, however, that not all prospects will pan out as expected. The scenario I just presented (an outfield of Revere/Hicks/Span) leaves out Morales, Benson, and Tosoni.
While they have serious issues to work out (strikeouts for Morales, left-handed pitchers for Tosoni) they are incredibly talented and could be potential trade chips.
This over-crowded outfield is certainly a good problem for the Twins. If one prospect gets injured or simply doesn’t live up to expectations, another one will be waiting in the wings.
What will the Minnesota outfield look like in 2012? Which top prospect am I too high on? Which one am I under-valuing? Be sure to let your voice be heard in the comment section!
With the 14th pick in the 2008 MLB First Year Player Draft, the Minnesota Twins select….. high school star Aaron Hicks from Long Beach, California. (Now wait four years until you ever hear his name again!)
Yes, it is hard to sometimes get excited for the MLB draft, it certainly doesn’t carry the same magnitude or at least immediate impact as the NFL or NBA draft; however, the past two days are an important crapshot for stockpiling the Twins organization with some jokers that hope to turn into aces.
I personally am quite excited for Aaron Hicks. He’s a five-tool player who the Twins have had on their radar for quite some time. A great athlete with tremendous potential, Hicks could someday be a star for the Twins in the outfield. Of course, you may say we don’t need another outfielder right now. This is true, but Hicks is still raw and probably four years away from the big leagues and I agree with the Twins philosophy of simply drafting the biggest talent regardless of position. ESPN analyst and senior writer for Scouts Inc., Keith Law, had this to say of Hicks,
In terms of tools, Hicks is one of the top three or four players in the draft. He’s first-rounder as an outfielder and a pitcher. He is relatively unpolished, so he should take a long time to get to the majors. He’s gotten by a lot on strength and bat speed for now. The Twins will have to work with him on his hitting approach. He has a chance to be a switch-hitting Andrew McCutchen, one of the top prospects in the minors.
The Twins turned some heads with their second pick, Carlos Gutierrez, a right handed closer for the Univeristy of Miami Hurricanes. Gutierrez is the closer for the #1 college team in the country, but was on no one’s radar as a first round pick. This is certainly a gamble for the Twins. Many scouts say Gutierrez has no other pitch under than his great fastball. He also missed the entire 2007 season due to Tommy John surgery. The reports certainly stack against the right hander, but the Twins have a history of drafting players ahead of their projected position and receiving high returns on their investment. Just look at last year’s #1, Ben Revere. Law had this to say about the 27th pick,
Now this is the biggest surprise of the first round so far. Gutierrez is another college closer whose fastball tops out at 94 with sink. But he doesn’t have a viable second pitch, not even a breaking ball. I don’t think a team should take a player with only one pitch in the first round. But the Twins have always had success with power arms out of their bullpen.
With their third pick in the first round, techincally the supplemental round, the Twins went with another college pitcher, Shooter Hunt from Tulane University. The 6 foot 3, 200 pound righty has been lights out for Tulane this year holding batters to a .144 average against and striking out 12.2 batters per 9 innings. Hunt was ranked as the 11th best prospect overall by Baseball America and fourth best among pitchers. After taking a risk with Gutierrez, it seems Hunt could be a very solid pick who may be able to move quickly through the minor leagues. Plus, now we have a guy in the system named Shooter!
This concludes first round coverage. I’ll have to do some more research into the later picks. The tricky part about this whole process is we may never hear from these guys ever again, but hopefully someday we’ll be anxiously waiting as these three guys tear up the minor leagues. I think there is a bright future in store for Aaron Hicks if he continues to work hard and develop. Gutierrez and Hunt could add some depth and strength to the minor league system and may contribute to the big league club quicker than expected. Only time will tell….
Get to know Mr. Shooter Hunt up close and personal here:
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