If you haven’t heard yet, Francisco Liriano had an amazing outing Thursday night in the Dominican Winter League striking out 10 batters in just five innings and allowing just one hit. Liriano has a 0.49 ERA in 37 innings this winter and apparently has a fastball that is topping off at 95-96 mph.
Twins fans are smart enough to be cautiously optimistic about Liriano’s performance this winter. Granted the Dominican Winter League is not the AL Central, but Liriano is competing for the number five spot in the rotation and has the potential to pitch like a number one ace.
Justin Morneau was selected as one of the elite Canadians to carry the Olympic torch on its way to Vancouver for the upcoming winter games. The best part of this story, Morneau joins other Canadian celebs including Steve Nash, Sidney Crosby, and of course Shania Twain. Can’t believe Jesse Crain isn’t on that list?
Twins blogger, Topper Anton, is doing a great series interviewing and introducing various members of the Twins blogging community. You get to learn a little more about some of the great Twins bloggers. This week I was honored to be highlighted in Topper’s column. Learn a bit more about Twins MVB.
According to reports by FoxSports.com’s John Paul Morosi, the Twins are still looking for a middle infielder, which is hardly surprising considering just one member of Game 163’s infield (Michael Cuddyer, Nick Punto, Orlando Cabrera, and Matt Tolbert) is likely to be in the starting infield next season. Sure, their projected 2010 infield (Justin Morneau, Alexi Casilla, J.J. Hardy, and Punto) is better in some places, but it’s weaker in others and not much better overall as a result.
What was surprising about Morosi’s report is that the Twins are also in the market for a fifth starter. I, like many writers, felt like the signing of Carl Pavano would more or less take the Twins out of the running for another arm. After all, the Twins have the top four set and a number of arms waiting to take the fifth spot.
It seems unlikely that Glen Perkins will return to the rotation after his well chronicled falling out with the team over his penchant for hiding injuries, then pitching terribly, and blaming the previously undisclosed injury for his abhorrent performance. If he’s even with the organization when camps break in a little over 90 days, I’ll be surprised.
Brian Duensing pitched extremely well down the stretch, far better than anyone thought he would. In his eight starts from August 22 to the end of the season, he went 5-1 with a 2.64 ERA and a WHIP of 1.3 in 47.2 innings. He struck out 31 and induced a ton of groundballs, which help him pitch around the batters he did allow to reach.
Anthony Swarzak was a reasonably well thought-of prospect, and he showed that promise on occasion, but his 2009 was by and large a disappointing effort. His fastball, change, and curveball all ranked as below average pitches, with his curve nearly five runs below average. He could slot in as a fifth starter if the Twins needed him to, and for many teams he’d fill that role decently, but he’s no better than the third best option for the fifth slot.
Jeff Manship made five starts at the end of the season, none bigger than his first—a five inning, one-run effort against the White Sox on September 1. While he may make a few appearances in spring training, it’s unlikely that he’ll break camp with the team.
Four arms loosely breaking down into two decent options and two prospects not yet ready. If these were the Twins’ options, a veteran arm might not be a bad idea (though as noted earlier, Jarrod Washburn is not an option worth pursuing). But there’s another player in this mix, one that has caused fans and prognosticators alike more headaches in the last two seasons than nearly any other player in baseball. The Twins other fifth starter option is none other than Capt. E. Nigma himself: Francisco Liriano.
Starting back in 2006 does more harm than good at this point. Liriano will never be that pitcher again. The question is if he can even be the pitcher who was nearly a win above replacement in 2008 despite throwing just 76 big-league innings.
His return from Tommy John surgery in 2008 was a study in patience as he began the year poorly, improved after being sent down to AAA, then went 6-1 with a 2.74 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP over 65.2 innings. His nearly 3-1 K/BB ratio was augmented by a low HR rate and a good GB/FB ratio. There’s good reason why the 2009 Baseball Prospectus Annual listed him as likely to be the ace of the staff in the coming season.
His 2009 was a regression par excellence; disappointing to say the least. He gave up three runs or more as many times in April alone as he did in his final 11 starts of 2008. Cold weather struggles are nothing new for Liriano, so hope that he’d bounce back was far from misplaced, and as May began, it looked like he might be waking up from a winter’s nap that had simply lasted too long. It didn’t take, however, as continued to struggle to string two good starts together. But that’s the key: from the press he received, you’d think Liriano was consistently bad, when in fact his problem was consistency. He had a number of very good starts—some amongst the best the Twins got all season, but he also gave them two of their ten worst starts (for what it’s worth, Glen Perkins was responsible for both the worst and second-worst start the Twins received all year, as well as another in the bottom 10).
It’s not hard to see what happened to Liriano that caused him to falter so badly: his fastball, which has never been his best pitch, fell from 3.6 runs below average to a shockingly bad 25.6 runs below average despite rising in velocity from an average of 90.9 MPH in 2008 to 91.7 in 2009. Not only did the pitch get worse, he threw it more often, making an already bad situation even worse.
Still, even with the limits on his slider placed in order to keep his arm healthy, Liriano has some of the best stuff of any of the potential starters on the staff. His slider is still an above average offering, especially since he’s eliminated the “bad slider” that he was using to set up his good one. His change, too, is a solid offering, giving him two plus secondary pitches essentially without a foundation. If he can get his fastball back to even the level it was at in 2008 (bad, but closer to average), his two secondary offerings will play that much better, and he should resume his previous effectiveness.
This all brings us to his most recent outings. In his first four starts for Escogido in the Dominican Winter League leave him with a line of 16.2 IP, 11 H, 2 ER, 3 BB, 20 K, a 1.08 ERA, a 0.84 WHIP, and especially encouraging are the 20/3 K/BB ratio and the 12.4 K/9. A grain of salt would be good when reading these numbers, as the DWL includes players at every level of the minors, as well as the majors. He’s induced 18 swinging strikeouts to just two looking, and while hard PFX data isn’t readily available, it seems fair to assume that his fastball isn’t getting hammered and that his slider has plenty of bite.
Counting on Liriano to be the ace of the staff is foolish, but they don’t need an ace—Scott Baker will be much better next year after an already decent 2009. Counting on him to be an innings-eater is foolish, but they don’t need an innings-eater—Carl Pavano, Nick Blackburn, and Baker all threw 200 innings. What they are looking for is a fifth starter in the truest sense of the term, someone who can take the ball every fifth day and give the team a chance to win. Liriano can be so much more than that if he reestablishes his foundation such that the Twins don’t have to worry about him giving them a two-inning stinker.
The Twins would be foolish to give up on Liriano at this point, he’s just 26 and has electric stuff when it’s on. Worst case scenario, he struggles again and the Twins go to Duensing or Swarzak; all that’s lost is time and maybe a game or two early in the season. The more likely scenario is that Liriano finds some comfort with his changeup, reestablishes his fastball, and continues to utilize a top-flight slider to post a much better 2010 than his 2009. He’ll never regain 2006’s majesty, but even a return to 2008’s performance will make the Twins a much better team than adding a Jarrod Washburn, Doug Davis, or most any other free agent arm within the Twins’ price range.
I honestly didn’t think things could get any worse for me this week. I watched my beloved Twins lose to the hated Yankees in walk-off fashion not once, but three times. I had to endure another Twins loss last night while listening to Oral Hershiser drool over every member of the Yankees roster. I watched the Twins continue to struggle last night against the White Sox and to top it off, I got a haircut and now I look like I am twelve (don’t ever tell someone with scissors to use their discretion when trimming your sideburns[1]).Thankfully, I have had a Sheppard to guide me and my fellow Twins fans through the darkness. His name is Joe Mauer.
Mauer has been sensational so far in his first month back in the lineup. Joe is batting .406 with 7 HR’s and 18 RBI’s (that’s in 17 games). To put this in perspective, last season Mauer hit .328 with 9 HR’s and 85 RBI’s (and was in the conversation for MVP). It is very difficult to tell where he will wind up at the end of this season, but if he keeps this upESPN projects that Mauer is on pace to hit .406 with 57 HR’s and 147 RBI’s.
Of course this is highly unlikely and I am not arguing that Joe Mauer is going to hit over 50 HR’s, or even 35. What I am saying is that Joe has clearly gotten better with the stick, and these days a big bat demands a big contract.
Joe’s contract is up at the end of the 2010 season. This season (2009) Joe is due to collect $10.5 million from the Twins. In 2008, when Mauer hit .328 with 9 HR’s and 85 RBI’s he raked in about $6.25 million. So what is it going to take for the Twins to keep their All-Star Catcher?
Across the AL Central in Detroit, Miguel Cabrera (the same age as Mauer) hit .281 with 37 HR’s and 127 RBI’s last season. Cabrera is set to make about $152 million over 8 years. In the National League, Albert Pujols hit .357 with 37 HR’s and 116 RBI’s last season and is inked in at $100 million over 7 years. Sitting right next to Joe in the dugout, Justin Morneau hit .300 last season with 23 HR’s and 129 RBI’s. Justin recently signed a 6 year, $80 million deal (with $6 million in signing bonus).
When considering what Joe Mauer is capable of doing at the plate (not to mention his glove) and based on what we have seen so far this season, I don’t think it’s unrealistic for Joe to finish the season hitting .330 with 20 HR’s and 100 RBI’s. If this is the case I would expect Mauer to attract somewhere in the ballpark of 6 years /$100 million, or maybe more. Fortunately, the Twins current payroll is $65.2 million, which is about $20 million shy of what the Twins have said they are willing to spend.
Keep in mind that there will be players who are eligible for arbitration next year (Liriano and Slowey), but regardless of the situation, signing Joe Mauer needs to be a priority this season for the Twins despite any policies of not negotiating contracts during the season. It would be a shame if the Twins thought they would get a “hometown discount,” and wound up losing one of the greatest catchers of all time.
Joe’s market really depends on how healthy he can stay over the course of this season and if he can continue to hit the ball like he is. If he can do both of these things, there is no question in my mind that Joe will cash in. The question is where?
[1]Imagine if this were Joe Mauer. Could the Twins sue the salon?
Today’s post is from guest blogger Andrew Wright. Expect more up to the minute coverage coming from the Twins MVB tonight at the game. Happy Opening Day fans!
Ok…..who’s excited? If you find yourself asking “why should I be excited?” I am questioning your “fanliness”. I shouldn’t even have to say it, but to be clear, today is opening day! I have been waiting for this day since I watched the Twins get beat in a one game playoff last fall by the much hated Chicago White Sox. I watched the game at a local bar, and remember seeing the Twins get set down one after another in the 9th.As I looked around the room, I had never seen such a collection of facial expressions before. If someone who knew nothing about baseball walked in the bar at that moment and saw the way people were looking at that over-sized plasma screen, you would have thought someone really important just died, at a young age, unexpectedly.
Then it hit me. The Twins have great fans, loyal fans. And it didn’t take a World Series win to establish the “Twins Nation.” I will admit that winning did play a role, but amongst Twins fans there seems to be a genuine loyalty that just doesn’t exist anymore (ok….besides the Cubs, but at this point, I think people just feel bad for them. It’s like parents being obligated to cheer for the kid who is never going to win anything at the 5th grade track and field day. Too bad we don’t have “Participation” medals in MLB.) Anyway, my point is that, I, like many other loyal Twins fans have been pacing the floor since that awful September night.Well, the day has finally arrived and I am more than ready for it. Let’s hope the Twins are too and haven’t forgotten what happened last September in Chicago.
The Twins will face the Seattle Mariners tonight at the Dome, which is hosting its final Twins opener. Francisco Liriano will get the nod for the Twins, as Scott Baker was recently placed on the 15-day DL. The Mariners will start Felix Hernandez. For Liriano, this start marks his first healthy season in about 2 years. For the Twins, this start will hopefully mark Liriano’s return to his 2006 dominant form.Manager Ron Gardenhire called Liriano’s performance this spring “Santana-Like,” giving Twins fans some hope that Liriano could be the missing link needed to lead the Twins deep into the playoffs this year.
I think that both pitchers will be sharp, but the Twins find a way to score some runs and win their home opener 4-2.
With exactly 20 days until Opening Day at the Metrodome pitchers are starting to stretch out longer outings and increase their pitch count. After the hitters edition it’s time to take a look at Who’s Hot/Who’s Not for the pitchers.
HOT
Kevin Slowey – Slowey looks like he’s already in midseason form allowing just two runs over nine innings this spring. Slowey has an awesome 10/1 strikeout to walk ratio and has only give up six hits total. I really believe Slowey can be on of the best #3 starters in the league this year.
Francisco Liriano – The Twins have really had a lot of strong pitching performances thus far in Ft. Myers, but it’s very promising to see Liriano shine this spring. The “Franchise” has a 2.19 ERA over 12.1 IP with a great 12/2 strikeout to walk ratio. Liriano was perfect in his last outing giving up zero runs, zero hits, and zero walks over four innings. With another year removed from Tommy John surgery, Liriano looks poised to return to his dominant form and I believe could be the X factor between a good Twins club and a potential World Series Twins club.
NOT
Jose Mijares - When the Twins signed Luis Ayala it became unsure if Mijares would make the Opening Day roster, but that was only because of youth and not production. However, Mijares has made the decision easy for the Twins posting a 10.13 ERA this spring. Mijares has walked eight batters and allowed eight hits in just 5.1 innings. Ron Gardenhire has expressed frustration with Mijares’ weight as well as his focus. Expect Jose to work out his issues in Rochester and be back with the club by summer time.
Scott Baker – After being anointed the Opening Day starter Baker has faltered a bit this spring. The staff ace has allowed 12 runs in 13 innings and a staggering 24 hits for an 8.31 ERA. For a smart, experienced pitcher like Baker these numbers aren’t too much to worry about and I still think Scott will have a big year as the Twins’ #1 starter, but the eight homeruns allowed this spring is a little concerning.
Compared to hitters I believe it takes longer for pitchers to get up to speed in February/March so all stats good and bad have to be taken with a grain of salt. With that said the Twins are in a good position heading into 2009 with a core of five young, solid starters in the rotation and Joe Nathan as an anchor in the bullpen.
Hard to come down from the emotional high of last night’s thrilling victory. Let’s hope the Twins clubhouse didn’t celebrate too hard!
This just in Kevin Slowey’s MRI results show no ligament damage from the line drive he took off the wrist during last night’s game. The X-rays came back negative but it is uncertain when Slowey will pitch again, simply because the Twins future is still uncertain. If the Twins do make the playoffs they will certainly hope Slowey will be recovered enough to take the mound. For now… one day at a time.
Liriano Ready After having to watch three amazing victories from the dugout, I’m sure Francisco Liriano is ready to take the mound tonight against the Kansas City Royals. Although the Twins did sweep the critical series against Chicago, these final three games are still must win games as the Twins hope to remain atop of the AL Central. There isn’t another pitcher I’d rather have take the mound to start the final series tonight then “The Franchise.”
I’m starting to think the Twins are running out of gas and it’s making me nervous. This is a young club with only a handful of players who have played meaningful games in the month of September and I don’t know if it’s pressure, fatigure, or a combination of both.
Thankfully the old White Sox are also lagging a bit, but with the way the Twins have played in the past four weeks I think we’re lucky to be just a game and a half back. If they can hang on through the week against Cleveland and Tampa Bay it’ll all come down to the six home games next week.
Minnesota isn’t the only team running out of gas as baseball’s feel good story, the Tampa Bay Rays, seem to be sputtering right now. The Mets are hoping to avoid another September collapse and Arizona has just fallen off the map. I haven’t even mentioned the Milwaukee Brewers who have been struggling so bad they fired their manager Ned Yost with just 12 games left in their season.
The Twins need to pick up a victory behind Francisco Liriano tonight because Wednesday they’ll face the Indians Cliff Lee. Although the Twins are they only team to beat the 22-2 Lee, I don’t like our chances!
The Twins complete a very succesful nine game homestand with a 7-2 record including two victories from the reeling Yankees. I left work for a couple hours and walked down to the Metrodome to watch Francisco Liriano pitch yesterday. The lefty struggled a bit to get efficient outs and very quickly worked his pitch count over 100 in the 5th inning. Despite it not being his cleanest outing since being recalled from AAA it’s amazing to watch the transformation of Liriano.
Yeah yeah, experts say he’s lost 3 mph off his fastball and his slider doesn’t bite as hard as 2006, but this kid is a better pitcher; a smarter pitcher. In 2006 as a rookie phenom, Liriano relied soley on his “nasty stuff.” Today he still has amazing stuff, but he annoys how to battle against batters, fight through not having his best control, and keep his emotions under control. It’s hard to say you’re glad Liriano got hurt and missed a year and a half (I certainly wish we could have had him) but I think he’s a better pitcher because of it. Let’s hope he’ll be getting victories for the Twins for years! If we get into the playoffs, we’ll need him to be our ace!
So now the Twins begin their mega 14-game road trip. This will truly be the test of the year. If we can return home from this still within striking distance of 1st place in the Central we will have a good shot at the playoffs. The hardest part of the trip starts right away with a 4-game series against Torii Hunter and the 1st place LA Angels. Then hopefully we will grab some wins with a 3-game series in Seattle and a 4-game series in Oakland. As the calendar turns to September and new callups will be brought up for reinforcements the Twins head north of the border for a 3-game set against the Toronto Blue Jays before heading home on Friday, September 5th.
BOLD Prediction: a 8-6 road trip returning home tied for 1st place with the White Sox.
For the first time since May 13 the Twins are in sole possession of first place!
As the calendar turns to August we’ve reached the time known in baseball as the dog days of summer. The weather is hot, the players are tired, and the long season becomes a grind. But the dog days are when the contenders truly separate themselves from the pack. Today on August 3rd, the Twins proved themselves to the rest of the baseball world that they too are contenders!
It seemed fitting that on the day the Twins took over first place with a victory over Cleveland their young phenom lefthander, Francisco Liriano, was on the mound to pick up the W. Liriano’s last win came against the Indian’s on July 23, of 2006. It has certainly been a long and winding road back to the majors for Liriano but today he reached his goal.
“He looked more like the old Liriano, like the one before,” catcher Mike Redmond said. “It’s only going to get better. He’s only going to get stronger.”
On this big day for Liriano and the Twins, the Chicago White Sox had a big day of their own. They had an ugly 12-2 loss to the Kansas City Royals that became even uglier as a bench clearing brawl lead to Ozzie Guillen and multiple players getting ejected. The Sox are just 3-9 in their last 12 games and maybe this will be the start of a downward slide.
Denard Span, who hit his second career homerun today, admitted to watching the scoreboard out in rightfield today, “I was watching [the scoreboard] — from like the fifth inning. I saw it was 8-0, then all of a sudden 10-0, and I was like, ‘Uh-oh!,’ then 12-2,” Span said. “I knew Kansas City was taking care of business, and it feels good. It feels good to finally say we’re in first place, for at least a day. We can’t sneak up on anybody anymore this year. Everybody knows we are for real this year.”
Well…. kinda, but the point is the Twins roster move today is the equivalent to a big deadline deal.
Yes of course there was no trade involving a Manny or a Junior, but the Twins FINALLY called up the “Franchise” Francisco Liriano today and released both pitcher Livan Hernandez and Craig Monroe.
Liriano and his 10-2 record with a 3.28 ERA in AAA Rochester will join the rotation Sunday against Cleveland. Along with the move, AAA first baseman Randy Ruiz will join the big league club taking Monroe’s role on the bench. Ruiz was batting .320 with 17 homeruns and 68 RBIs through 111 games in Rochester.
This move is a huge boost to the Twins. Not very often can a playoff contending club get rid of veterans in favor of a youth movement and still improve their team. Just like the past two years the Twins signed Hernandez and Monroe for a combined $8.5 million thinking they would be bargain veterans that provide leadership and experience. I’m sure these two players added their experience to the Twins clubhouse, but for Liriano and Ruiz the time is now.
I truly think Liriano could be the difference maker in determining the AL Central race. The White Sox may have made their move for Ken Griffey Jr. and I believe Griffey will be rejuvenated by playing for a playoff contending club and be a bigger addition then people believe, but Liriano can make a huge impact for the Twins. If Liriano continues to pitch like he has at AAA, he’ll get to pitch the months of August and September that we never saw in amazing rookie year of 2006. The difference in 2008, Liriano is not the rookie phenomenon, but a potential staff ace returning from Tommy John surgery.
Reporters have criticized and will continue to ask why Liriano wasn’t called up earlier; however, despite the poor performance of Hernandez the past two months, the decision to call up Liriano could not be rushed. Francisco now clearly has his confidence, his velocity, his command, and his motivation of being the difference maker in a tight playoff race.
The most exciting thing to me in this entire situation, not only do we have Liriano ready to dominate down the stretch but the Twins current 2008 rotation looks like the following: Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey, Glen Perkins, Nick Blackburn, and Francisco Liriano…. all legitimate young pitchers under the age of 26. The future is bright for the Minnesota Twins!
Read the First Comment 
Well…. kinda, but the point is the Twins roster move today is the equivalent to a big deadline deal.
