After a satisfying series victory over the divisional rival Detroit Tigers, the Twins will end their homestand with a four-game set against the Tampa Bay Rays.
Tampa Bay started the season off on an excellent note, perching themselves atop the American League East while the Yankees and Red Sox tried to re-group. Now, though, the Rays have struggled to maintain their pitching prowess, and have slipped in the standings.
Still one of the best teams in baseball, though, the Rays will be trying to accomplish the same thing as the Twins during this series: closing the door on a rotten June in an attempt to get back on track in July.
Game One – Jeff Niemann (6-2, 2.72) vs. Carl Pavano (9-6, 3.33)
Niemann, 27, was a major factor into Tampa Bay’s incredible start to the season, posting a 2.38 ERA through the month of May. Like his team, though, Niemann took a step back in June. This step back has been minimal, but could be the start of a major regression.
Despite coming off two successful starts against National League squads, Niemann is a classic example of a pitcher with artificially impressive stats. With an extremely low BABIP, a low line drive percentage, and a very high strand rate, it’s not a question of whether or not Niemann will regress; it’s a question of when.
While he’s certainly not as good of a pitcher as his stats suggest, Niemann may not return to earth for quite a while. The longer he keeps up this façade, though, the harder his fall will be.
Pavano’s success, meanwhile, appears to be more a result of ability. Although he has the benefit of a low BABIP and high strand rate, Pavano hasn’t given up any fewer line drives than is usual for the 34-year old. His overall talent level is probably worse than his current 3.33 ERA, but to expect a 4.00 ERA on the season would be fair.
Though not the case for most Twins, the month of June has been extremely friendly to Pavano. Coming off two consecutive complete games, Pavano has an ERA of 2.25 through 40 June innings. Pavano (and teammate Francisco Liriano) have been paramount to Minnesota’s ability to avoid a free-fall this month.
Both BJ Upton and Carl Crawford have dealt with minor bumps and buises these past few days, and they may miss a game or two during this series.
Game Two – David Price (11-3, 2.44) vs. Scott Baker (4-7, 4.97)
A few weeks ago, David Price was in the same boat as Niemann; a lucky pitcher who would likely plummet back to a more realistic realm. Instead of regressing, though, Price seems to be finally tapping into his incredible potential.
Price, 24, has marginal success last year with basically two pitches: a four-seam fastball and a slider. This season Price has introduced two new pitches: a curveball and a two-seam fastball. With the ability to better deceive opposing batters, Price has had great success in 2010. His ERA won’t stay below 2.50 for too long, and he won’t be able to strand nearly as many runners as he is now, but Price, the first overall pick in the 2007 draft, has started to realize his potential. Which should frighten batters across the American League.
Baker has been one of the most disappointing players for Minnesota this season. A career 4.36 ERA pitcher, Baker’s near-5.00 ERA this season has angered many fans. Looking at the stats, though, shows that Baker has BABIP slightly higher than is usual for the right-hander, and that more fly balls than usual are ending up as home runs. Both of these will likely regress eventually, though, Minnesota fans could be treated to a start along the lines of Baker’s most recent.
Game Three – Wade Davis (5-9, 4.68) vs. Francisco Liriano (6-6, 3.47)
When looking at opposing pitchers in these series previews, I usually make sure to mention whether or not that pitcher has had “luck” on their side. In Davis’ case, though, his poor stats are simply because he hasn’t pitched very well.
Whether his issues are mental or mechanical isn’t necessarily known, but he has garned far fewer swinging strikes than in the past. This lack of deception has greatly hurt his stats, and Price could be replaced by top prospect Jeremy Hellickson very soon.
Liriano has been one of the best pitchers in the American League this season, and “luck” hasn’t played too big a factor in his success. He will give up more home runs per fly ball than he is now, but all signs point back to the biggest reason for Liriano’s success: his improved slider.
Game Four – James Shields (6-8, 4.76) vs. Nick Blackburn (7-5, 6.02)
On the face of things, it appears that Shields has been unimpressive this season. When trying to root out the reason for this mediocrity, though, I can’t find any glaring abnormalities. Most of his batted-ball and plate discipline stats have remained the same from years past, as Shields is still inducing plenty of ground balls and getting ahead in the count at a very impressive clip.
So why is the ground-ball pitcher struggling? For one, his BABIP is slightly higher, but something intangible is also a likely culprit. In any case, Shields hasn’t been very effective this season, and there is no reason to believe that his mediocrity will end against the Twins.
Blackburn has also struggled to get batters out this year, but we can pinpoint exactly what is ailing the 28-year old righty: He just isn’t very good. He is dead-last in the league in strikeouts per nine innings, and when he throws a pitch in the strike zone, opposing batters make contact an astounding 96.6 percent of the time, which is also tops in the league.
Marginally successful for the past few years, Blackburn relied upon his extremely accurate arm to paint the corners of the plate and walk very few opposing batters. This year, however, it appears the league knows that most of Blackburn’s pitches are hittable.
The Twins had a tough go of things against the Atlanta Braves, but you’d be hard pressed to say that they didn’t play one of the NL’s best all but square. The Twins had a chance, with the bases loaded and Jason Kubel up in the second game, to win the series before game three started, but couldn’t get it done and paid the price.
I feel somewhat obligated to weigh in on the Twins…lack of an optimal Sunday lineup, but I won’t belabor the point. Many managers, league wide, rested stars on Sunday with the day off Monday to maximize their rest, so in that sense, it’s probably a blessing that Joe Mauer was in the squad at all. The only decision that really bothers me was the decision to give Denard Span a day off with Kevin Slowey on the mound. Span’s played a lot, and probably needs a day off, but with Slowey’s flyball tendencies, it seemed to me to be a poor time to give him the day off. Yes, it ended up being moot, but that was what struck me.
No point in dwelling on the past, so it’s on to the future.
Let’s not kid ourselves, games one and two are merely an undercard to the Jimenez/Liriano battle in game three, but every game counts the same, so here’s the breakdown.
Game One
Aaron Cook has been one of the Rockies’ most consistent starters over his nine seasons with the team. Not always consistently good, but typically not despicably bad either. Since becoming a full-time starter, Cook has never posted a full-season ERA+ below 110 but only once has he posted an ERA+ over 120. His career WHIP is 1.44 and his ERA is 4.35; he’s nothing special but not bad either.
In that light, this season has been something of a disappointment for him and for the Rockies by extension. His WHIP and ERA are up, he’s walking more hitters and striking out fewer, all of which has lead to his struggles. While some might try and blame his issues on his hitter-friendly home park, Cook has been substantially worse on the road. At Coors, Cook is holding hitters to a .222/.288/.325 line with 2 HR allowed, but on the road, hitters are tagging him to the tune of .322/.394/.432 line with another 2 HR.
The Twins lefties—Span, Mauer, Morneau, and the DH du jour—should feast on the righty, as Cook has been hard-pressed to retire port-siders. He’s allowed them a .322/.394/.398 line with 20 walks to just 9 strikeouts.
We’ve outlined Pavano’s Jekyll and Hyde tendencies before, but it bears repeating. In wins, Pavano is holding hitters to a .217/.245/.289 line with just 1 HR, but in losses, hitters beat him for a .316/.354/.520 line with 7 HR. If he’s good, he’s really good (WHIP of 0.91 in wins) but when he’s bad, the Twins really have to hit the ball well to back him up (WHIP of 1.46 in losses).
Ultimately, there’s isn’t a lot of rhyme or reason to his blow-ups. Some come at home, some on the road. Sometimes he struggles against good teams like Texas, sometimes it’s Kansas City that gets to him. Lefty heavy lineups can do him slight, and the Rockies have just three righties in their expected lineup, so it could be a rough outing for Pavano on Tuesday. Or he could throw a perfect game, you decide.
Game Two
Game two will be a worthy warmup to the main event with Scott Baker squaring off against Jhoulys Chacin.
While Kevin Slowey’s inability to pitch deep into games has been well-chronicled, here and elsewhere, but Baker hasn’t been much better. He’s pitched six innings or fewer in eight of his 13 starts so far this season and has a 6.59 ERA in those eight starts.
Baker’s struggles have come from a few factors in concert. He’s giving up more hits, an above average amount of home runs, and seen his strikeouts fall from by almost a full K/9. Hitters aren’t swinging at as many of Baker’s pitches in the zone as they did last year, but they are making more consistent contact and hitting the ball harder. Baker’s slugging percentage allowed is at its highest level since 2006 and he’s still having the same trouble with home runs that he did in 2009.
For all the trouble he has had, there have been a few really strong starts, though he has yet to put the Twins on his back against a strong opponent. If there’s anyone who has benefitted from the emergence of Francisco Liriano as the staff ace, it’s Baker, who would be under much more scrutiny if he were called on to be the team’s stopper.
Chacin made back-to-back tremendous starts, going 14.2 innings before giving up his first run. Once they came, however, the runs have come in bunches. Since going seven innings in both of his first two starts, Chacin has completed six innings just two other times and he’s yet to allow fewer than two runs in a start. He’s still a high strikeout pitcher, averaging 9.7 K/9 and will keep the Twins at bay with his slider, which he sets up with a low-90s fastball.
Chacin is another pitcher who is tougher on right-handers than lefties, so it could be a tough few games for Delmon Young and Michael Cuddyer, though the former has been hitting everything lately, as he’s hitting .371/.378/.657 with 3 HR and 13 driven in during his current 10-game hitting streak.
Game Three
The main event. In this corner, the best pitcher in baseball, a guy putting up video game numbers, and one of the biggest surprises of the 2010 first half: Ubaldo Jimenez. There’s not much to say in terms of his splits. He’s better against rigthies than lefties, but neither are hitting above .200 against him. He’s better on the road than at home, which doesn’t bode well for the Twins, but he’s dangerous everywhere. His ERA of 1.16 is lower than all but 25 starters’ WHIP, but his WHIP of 0.97 is just third behind both Doug Fister—who the Twins beat in Seattle—and Cliff Lee. His only loss came when the Dodgers shut the Rockies out over a month ago. Since then he’s won all six of his decisions.
So, how do the Twins crack his steel shell? Efficiency is the name of this game, if the Twins get a runner into scoring position, they simply have to drive him in. Jimenez isn’t immune from walking a few, which may be the opening the Twins need. To be clear, I don’t like their chances in this game, but I don’t think it’s an impossible task, due in no small part to their starter.
Liriano isn’t as good as Jimenez—shocking, I know—but he has been outstanding in his own right. He’s striking out nearly 10 hitters per nine, he’s keeping the ball in the ballpark, and he’s posting the lowest walk-rate of his career. Both of his starts this month have produced double-digit strikeout totals and seven or more innings of quality work. In his last start against Atlanta, Liriano was every bit as good as mound opponent Tim Hudson and helped the Twins win a close game against a good team, something they have struggled to do this season. I’m not saying he has to throw a shutout to beat Jimenez, I’m just saying it’d really help, and if that is what the Twins will need from their pitcher to win the game, I’m glad it’s Liriano on the hill.
It looks like Orlando Hudson won’t return during this series, which puts more pressure on the lineup regulars to perform. It’s worth watching to see what lineups Ron Gardenhire uses on both Wednesday and Thursday, as it’s unlikely that Joe Mauer would catch both games, but pitting Drew Butera against Jimenez just isn’t going to end well. If that’s the plan, I’d rather start every third inning with an out already on the board, you know, to save time.
The Twins’ saving grace in this series is that all three of the Rockies’ starters is more susceptible to lefties than righties. They’ll need better production from Justin Morneau in this series than they got from him against Atlanta, as his 1-for-10 was certainly part of the Twins’ inability to score runs. Of course it goes without saying that they need more production from Brendan Harris or Trevor Plouffe, as well as Jim Thome when he gets his chances.
At the risk of sounding like Capt. Pessimistic, I think the Twins will lose the series and struggle to win the game they do get. The Rox have been an up and down team, losing 3-of-4 to the Astros, then sweeping the Blue Jays, so it’s difficult to gage their form exactly. That said, I’m not wild about the Twins’ direction right now and I think they’ll struggle against Jimenez and one of the right-handers and lose this series.
Another rematch against a team that we just can’t seem to beat.
After being swept in the season series against the Yankees last year, and losing two of three to them in our first meeting this year, the Twins will be considered the underdog in this series, despite what the above numbers say. Should the Twins fail to win this series against the Bronx Bombers, there will undoubtedly be people throwing in the towel on the season, citing the Twins’ inability to beat the “good teams” that they will be paired up against in the postseason.
That’s certainly an overreaction, but winning two of three in the Yankee’s first visit to Target Field sure would be nice.
Game One - Burnett (4-2, 3.86 ERA) vs. Baker (4-4, 4.88 ERA)
AJ Burnett has certainly been having a great season, and was among the early favorites for Cy Young before he got rocked for six runs in just under seven innings a few days ago. Ignoring that last start, Burnett has been an above-average starter. He isn’t striking out his usual total, though, and he is giving up plenty of hits. If an offensively potent team can string some hits together — like the Rays did last week — Burnett’s ERA may rise a few dozen points.
On the face of things, it appears as if Baker is his “start the season slow” mode. With a relatively high 4.88 ERA, Baker is hardly pitching well enough to be considered the staff’s “ace.” As evidenced by his abnormally-high .343 BABIP and improved groundball rate, Baker may be on the cusp of a few lucky breaks. Baker is striking out the most in his career and walking opposing batters at a very low clip, and has the 25th-lowest xFIP in baseball: 3.70.
Game Two – Pettitte (5-1, 2.68 ERA) vs. Liriano (4-3, 3.25 ERA)
Andy Pettitte has been the anti-Baker so far this year. Although his ERA and win/loss record is appealing, his xFIP is a much-higher 4.34, which testaments to his high walk rate, low strikeout rate, and low BABIP, all of which indicate a regression to the mean in the very near future. Pettitte also has a very impressive 82.2 strand-rate, which simply isn’t sustainable over the course of a whole season.
After posting a 7.02 ERA over his last three starts, Liriano seems to have finally convinced people that he will never return to his pre-surgery form. Even with three less-than-desirable starts so far this year, Liriano’s intangibles have been right in line of what we expect: a solid strikeout rate and an average walk rate. His almost complete aversion of the long-ball this year (he’s given up just two home runs all season) is also good to see.
Game Three – Vazquez (3-4, 6.69 ERA) vs. Blackburn (5-1, 4.50 ERA)
After dealing away a package centering around Melky Cabrera for Javy Vazquez, the Yankees are undoubtedly upset with their return. Vazquez, who finished fourth in Cy Young voting last season, is off to a terrible start with New York. His sky-high ERA is only slightly worse than the advanced stats claim, and hope can’t even be gleaned from his BABIP, which is maddeningly (at least for Yankees fans) normal.
Blackburn, on the other hand, has pitched worse than his ERA indicates. Striking out an extremely low 2.50 batters per nine innings (the lowest mark in baseball among qualified pitchers) and giving up far more than his fair share of home runs, Blackburn has been “off” this season. His BABIP isn’t too far off line, and he is inducing more groundballs than he usually does, which is what he needs to do to be successful in 2010. Against the mighty Yankee’s offense, I’m guessing a full return to his usually-reliable self isn’t going to happen.
This series will be the last time the Twins play the Yankees this season. While too much shouldn’t be read into a mid-May series, any matchup of two of the best teams in baseball is important. Another series lose would leave an awful taste in Twins’ fans mouths, but a good showing could help spring-board a successful June for Minnesota.
There’s a lot of hyperbole circulating about this weekend’s series against the Yankee. I agree that it’s a big deal, but it’s no bigger than any other series against a potential playoff opponent. Yes, the Yankees dominated the Twins last year, and yes, the Twins typically don’t play well in the Bronx. But to borrow a phrase from every stock brokerage commercial ever: Past performance does not guarantee future results.
The Twins will miss C.C. Sabathia, who pitched Thursday in a loss, and likely Phil Hughes, which gives them an advantage in this series. Hughes could pop up in Game Three, but I doubt it, more on this later.
The Yanks are a little out of sorts right now. The rainout and subsequent doubleheader knocked their rotation out of whack, mitigated somewhat by the return of Andy Pettitte. Injuries have hit them early this season, with Curtis Granderson and Nick Johnson on the shelf and Jorge Posada and Robbie Cano playing a little dinged up.
They’ve gotten solid contributions from Brett Gardner and Francisco Cervelli, but the fact remains that they aren’t the Yankees team of last year’s second half that could simply outpitch, outhit, and outrun an opponent. They may yet get there, but they are beatable right now, as Detroit showed by taking three of four from the Bronx bombers and shutting them out twice.
Game One pits two pitchers coming off of opposite starts.
Scott Baker bounced back from two bad starts to give the Twins two really good ones in their last homestand. He’s limiting his home runs allowed, which is a huge key to his success, and if he can keep his walks down—as he did in his last start against the Orioles—he’s likely to give the Twins another solid start. Mark Teixeira is one of Baker’s great nemeses as he’s gone 4-for-7 with a home run against him. Not a large sample, to be sure, but a matchup that’s worth watching.
A.J. Burnett was sailing to open the season, including back-to-back shut down starts against the Orioles before turning in a horrendous effort against the Red Sox last Sunday. He’s not striking out as many hitters as he has in the past—his K/9 is down to 6.4 from a career average of 8.3—but is still having good success forcing hitters to put the ball in play. Joe Mauer, Delmon Young, and Justin Morneau have all had reasonably good success against the righty over their careers, but none has more than 20 ABs against him. By comparison, Jim Thome has 30 career ABs against Burnett and has stuck out in 11 of them.
Game Two shapes up to be toughest game of the series for both teams, one which could easily be decided by one bad pitch by either starter.
Francisco Liriano had the best bad start I’ve seen in a long time his last time out. Yeah, he allowed 10 hits and five runs over six innings, but if three of those balls were hard-hit, I missed one. It was “Death by 1000 Cuts” or “What the 2002-2008 Twins Were Hated For”. It was his worst start of the year, but unless that happens again, I won’t be too concerned. These things happen to everyone, even the best aren’t immune. It’s basically not worth talking about the Yankees’ hitters versus Liriano over the course of their career since he’s a fundamentally different pitcher than he was before, but Marcus Thames is 4-for-9 with three home runs against him.
Andy Pettitte wasn’t a lock to make this start after missing his last time through the rotation with elbow soreness, but he’s back, due in no small part to the rotation jumble the Yankees face after their doubleheader. Pettitte has been really good this season, giving up more than two runs in a start just once so far and allowing just one home run in 34 innings of work. If he’s on his game, he’ll force the Twins to be very efficient in their offense, something they haven’t really done this season. Of the seven Twins with 10 or more ABs against Pettitte, five have batting averages over .350, though he’s allowed just two home runs to the current Twins lineup. The Twins should put a decent number of runners on against Pettitte, but their ability to get the decisive hit when they need it will determine whether or not they can give Pettitte his first loss of 2010.
Game Three would have been a much rougher draw for the Twins had the Yankees remained on their normal rotation, as they would have faced the red-hot Phil Hughes rather than Sergio Mitre.
Since returning from a family emergency, Nick Blackburn has put together back-to-back quality starts. He shut down the Orioles in his most recent start and held the Tigers more or less in check in the start immediately preceding that. Blackburn drew a lot of flak early in the season for not pitching well at all after signing his new contract this offseason, but he is the same pitcher who threw nine consecutive quality starts in the middle of last season. Yes, he’s the Twins fourth or fifth best starter, but he’s entirely capable of turning in a line of really solid performances. He was as good as anyone in the Orioles series, but with the big bats of the Yankees in their matchbox of a park, I’m a little concerned about him in this start. Teixeira is 6-for-6 with a bomb lifetime against Blackburn, so…that’s not promising.
Blackburn faces Sergio Mitre, who started in Andy Pettitte’s place last time through the rotation. He gave up three earned runs and one jack in his 4 1/3 innings of work against the Tigers. He generated 10 groundball outs, however, something he’ll look to do again. If the Twins can get into the Yankees’ bullpen early in the series, they may get an extra long look at Mtire, who is not used to pitching more than 3-4 innings.
Something to watch for in all three games is the Yankees’ running game. Gardner is a very quick runner and one who gets pretty good jumps—he’s 16/17 in steals so far this season—and the Twins had some issues with the aggressive running style of the White Sox. The Yankees may try to exploit that flaw early and often, hopefully Mauer and Hudson have gotten their issues addressed. If not, it could be up to the pitchers to keep Gardner and, to a much lesser extent, Jeter off the bases.
Conclusion: It’s a tough call. On paper, I like the Twins’ chances Friday night, but Saturday and Sunday are too close for either team to be a rock-solid lock. Blackburn should be better than Mitre, but Mitre isn’t going to pitch the Yankees out of that game either. The X-factor here is the Yankees’ performance at home, where they are 10-2 this season. I don’t see either team sweeping, but either team could win 2-1. My hunch is that the Yankees give the Twins their second series loss of the season.
For the first time in franchise history, the Minnesota Twins have opened the season with four straight series victories. Although they have yet to bring out the brooms, the Twins are certainly on a great start to the 2010 season.
Tomorrow, Minnesota will close out their first home-stand against the division-rival Cleveland Indians. On the face of things, Cleveland appears to be mired in the middle of an extensive rebuilding period, and a look at their starting rotation does little to inspire confidence, but the Indians are a team that could surprise quite a few.
On Tuesday night, Kevin Slowey will take the hill against Justin Masterson in Game One of the series. Masterson was traded from the Boston Red Sox last season in exchange for Victor Martinez, and is one of the more under-rated starting pitchers in the division. A ground-ball pitcher, Masterson features a deadly slider that will miss plenty of bats. In his first 11 innings this season, Masterson has an ERA of 2.45 (an xFIP of 1.91), and 11.45 strikeouts per nine innings.
Game Two will pit Francisco Liriano against lefty David Huff. Huff has thrown 15 innings this season, and has an ERA of 1.80. His slider is an above-average offering, but he certainly wouldn’t be a No. 3 starter in many other places. Game Three of the three-game series will match up Scott Baker and Mitch Talbot. Currently sporting an attractive 3.21 ERA through his first 14 innings, the right-handed Talbot has shown a good, cutting fastball this year.
The Indians certainly have a less-than-stellar starting rotation, and the Twins will be able to score plenty of runs early in the game. Cleveland’s bullpen, however, could be a little tougher to crack. Anchored by Kerry Wood, the Cleveland bullpen consisting of Chris Perez, Tony Sipp, and Joe Smith is relatively solid.
Cleveland’s real strength, though, is their offense. Asdrubal Cabrera, Travis Hafner, and Shin Soo-Choo form a very potent top third of the batting order, and Travis Hafner, Jhonny Peralta, and Russel Branyon are no easy-outs, either. Even the last three hitters in their lineup — Luis Valbuena, Lou Marson, and Michael Brantley — are all projected by Baseball Prospectus to post VORPs over 10.
Slowey had a rough outing the last time he threw from the bump, and he should be ready to redeem himself. Baker and Liriano should perform well, too, but any of these three are prime candidates for another unforeseen implosion like Carl Pavano gave yesterday.
If the Twins can continue to rake opposing pitchers (they have a team OPS of .820; fifth-highest in the league) they should have no problem against the Indians. These could be three high-scoring games, but the key bases-clearing doubles that the Twins have lacked through the first few games should come around eventually.
If you haven’t heard yet, Francisco Liriano had an amazing outing Thursday night in the Dominican Winter League striking out 10 batters in just five innings and allowing just one hit. Liriano has a 0.49 ERA in 37 innings this winter and apparently has a fastball that is topping off at 95-96 mph.
Twins fans are smart enough to be cautiously optimistic about Liriano’s performance this winter. Granted the Dominican Winter League is not the AL Central, but Liriano is competing for the number five spot in the rotation and has the potential to pitch like a number one ace.
Justin Morneau was selected as one of the elite Canadians to carry the Olympic torch on its way to Vancouver for the upcoming winter games. The best part of this story, Morneau joins other Canadian celebs including Steve Nash, Sidney Crosby, and of course Shania Twain. Can’t believe Jesse Crain isn’t on that list?
Twins blogger, Topper Anton, is doing a great series interviewing and introducing various members of the Twins blogging community. You get to learn a little more about some of the great Twins bloggers. This week I was honored to be highlighted in Topper’s column. Learn a bit more about Twins MVB.
According to reports by FoxSports.com’s John Paul Morosi, the Twins are still looking for a middle infielder, which is hardly surprising considering just one member of Game 163’s infield (Michael Cuddyer, Nick Punto, Orlando Cabrera, and Matt Tolbert) is likely to be in the starting infield next season. Sure, their projected 2010 infield (Justin Morneau, Alexi Casilla, J.J. Hardy, and Punto) is better in some places, but it’s weaker in others and not much better overall as a result.
What was surprising about Morosi’s report is that the Twins are also in the market for a fifth starter. I, like many writers, felt like the signing of Carl Pavano would more or less take the Twins out of the running for another arm. After all, the Twins have the top four set and a number of arms waiting to take the fifth spot.
It seems unlikely that Glen Perkins will return to the rotation after his well chronicled falling out with the team over his penchant for hiding injuries, then pitching terribly, and blaming the previously undisclosed injury for his abhorrent performance. If he’s even with the organization when camps break in a little over 90 days, I’ll be surprised.
Brian Duensing pitched extremely well down the stretch, far better than anyone thought he would. In his eight starts from August 22 to the end of the season, he went 5-1 with a 2.64 ERA and a WHIP of 1.3 in 47.2 innings. He struck out 31 and induced a ton of groundballs, which help him pitch around the batters he did allow to reach.
Anthony Swarzak was a reasonably well thought-of prospect, and he showed that promise on occasion, but his 2009 was by and large a disappointing effort. His fastball, change, and curveball all ranked as below average pitches, with his curve nearly five runs below average. He could slot in as a fifth starter if the Twins needed him to, and for many teams he’d fill that role decently, but he’s no better than the third best option for the fifth slot.
Jeff Manship made five starts at the end of the season, none bigger than his first—a five inning, one-run effort against the White Sox on September 1. While he may make a few appearances in spring training, it’s unlikely that he’ll break camp with the team.
Four arms loosely breaking down into two decent options and two prospects not yet ready. If these were the Twins’ options, a veteran arm might not be a bad idea (though as noted earlier, Jarrod Washburn is not an option worth pursuing). But there’s another player in this mix, one that has caused fans and prognosticators alike more headaches in the last two seasons than nearly any other player in baseball. The Twins other fifth starter option is none other than Capt. E. Nigma himself: Francisco Liriano.
Starting back in 2006 does more harm than good at this point. Liriano will never be that pitcher again. The question is if he can even be the pitcher who was nearly a win above replacement in 2008 despite throwing just 76 big-league innings.
His return from Tommy John surgery in 2008 was a study in patience as he began the year poorly, improved after being sent down to AAA, then went 6-1 with a 2.74 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP over 65.2 innings. His nearly 3-1 K/BB ratio was augmented by a low HR rate and a good GB/FB ratio. There’s good reason why the 2009 Baseball Prospectus Annual listed him as likely to be the ace of the staff in the coming season.
His 2009 was a regression par excellence; disappointing to say the least. He gave up three runs or more as many times in April alone as he did in his final 11 starts of 2008. Cold weather struggles are nothing new for Liriano, so hope that he’d bounce back was far from misplaced, and as May began, it looked like he might be waking up from a winter’s nap that had simply lasted too long. It didn’t take, however, as continued to struggle to string two good starts together. But that’s the key: from the press he received, you’d think Liriano was consistently bad, when in fact his problem was consistency. He had a number of very good starts—some amongst the best the Twins got all season, but he also gave them two of their ten worst starts (for what it’s worth, Glen Perkins was responsible for both the worst and second-worst start the Twins received all year, as well as another in the bottom 10).
It’s not hard to see what happened to Liriano that caused him to falter so badly: his fastball, which has never been his best pitch, fell from 3.6 runs below average to a shockingly bad 25.6 runs below average despite rising in velocity from an average of 90.9 MPH in 2008 to 91.7 in 2009. Not only did the pitch get worse, he threw it more often, making an already bad situation even worse.
Still, even with the limits on his slider placed in order to keep his arm healthy, Liriano has some of the best stuff of any of the potential starters on the staff. His slider is still an above average offering, especially since he’s eliminated the “bad slider” that he was using to set up his good one. His change, too, is a solid offering, giving him two plus secondary pitches essentially without a foundation. If he can get his fastball back to even the level it was at in 2008 (bad, but closer to average), his two secondary offerings will play that much better, and he should resume his previous effectiveness.
This all brings us to his most recent outings. In his first four starts for Escogido in the Dominican Winter League leave him with a line of 16.2 IP, 11 H, 2 ER, 3 BB, 20 K, a 1.08 ERA, a 0.84 WHIP, and especially encouraging are the 20/3 K/BB ratio and the 12.4 K/9. A grain of salt would be good when reading these numbers, as the DWL includes players at every level of the minors, as well as the majors. He’s induced 18 swinging strikeouts to just two looking, and while hard PFX data isn’t readily available, it seems fair to assume that his fastball isn’t getting hammered and that his slider has plenty of bite.
Counting on Liriano to be the ace of the staff is foolish, but they don’t need an ace—Scott Baker will be much better next year after an already decent 2009. Counting on him to be an innings-eater is foolish, but they don’t need an innings-eater—Carl Pavano, Nick Blackburn, and Baker all threw 200 innings. What they are looking for is a fifth starter in the truest sense of the term, someone who can take the ball every fifth day and give the team a chance to win. Liriano can be so much more than that if he reestablishes his foundation such that the Twins don’t have to worry about him giving them a two-inning stinker.
The Twins would be foolish to give up on Liriano at this point, he’s just 26 and has electric stuff when it’s on. Worst case scenario, he struggles again and the Twins go to Duensing or Swarzak; all that’s lost is time and maybe a game or two early in the season. The more likely scenario is that Liriano finds some comfort with his changeup, reestablishes his fastball, and continues to utilize a top-flight slider to post a much better 2010 than his 2009. He’ll never regain 2006’s majesty, but even a return to 2008’s performance will make the Twins a much better team than adding a Jarrod Washburn, Doug Davis, or most any other free agent arm within the Twins’ price range.
I honestly didn’t think things could get any worse for me this week. I watched my beloved Twins lose to the hated Yankees in walk-off fashion not once, but three times. I had to endure another Twins loss last night while listening to Oral Hershiser drool over every member of the Yankees roster. I watched the Twins continue to struggle last night against the White Sox and to top it off, I got a haircut and now I look like I am twelve (don’t ever tell someone with scissors to use their discretion when trimming your sideburns[1]).Thankfully, I have had a Sheppard to guide me and my fellow Twins fans through the darkness. His name is Joe Mauer.
Mauer has been sensational so far in his first month back in the lineup. Joe is batting .406 with 7 HR’s and 18 RBI’s (that’s in 17 games). To put this in perspective, last season Mauer hit .328 with 9 HR’s and 85 RBI’s (and was in the conversation for MVP). It is very difficult to tell where he will wind up at the end of this season, but if he keeps this upESPN projects that Mauer is on pace to hit .406 with 57 HR’s and 147 RBI’s.
Of course this is highly unlikely and I am not arguing that Joe Mauer is going to hit over 50 HR’s, or even 35. What I am saying is that Joe has clearly gotten better with the stick, and these days a big bat demands a big contract.
Joe’s contract is up at the end of the 2010 season. This season (2009) Joe is due to collect $10.5 million from the Twins. In 2008, when Mauer hit .328 with 9 HR’s and 85 RBI’s he raked in about $6.25 million. So what is it going to take for the Twins to keep their All-Star Catcher?
Across the AL Central in Detroit, Miguel Cabrera (the same age as Mauer) hit .281 with 37 HR’s and 127 RBI’s last season. Cabrera is set to make about $152 million over 8 years. In the National League, Albert Pujols hit .357 with 37 HR’s and 116 RBI’s last season and is inked in at $100 million over 7 years. Sitting right next to Joe in the dugout, Justin Morneau hit .300 last season with 23 HR’s and 129 RBI’s. Justin recently signed a 6 year, $80 million deal (with $6 million in signing bonus).
When considering what Joe Mauer is capable of doing at the plate (not to mention his glove) and based on what we have seen so far this season, I don’t think it’s unrealistic for Joe to finish the season hitting .330 with 20 HR’s and 100 RBI’s. If this is the case I would expect Mauer to attract somewhere in the ballpark of 6 years /$100 million, or maybe more. Fortunately, the Twins current payroll is $65.2 million, which is about $20 million shy of what the Twins have said they are willing to spend.
Keep in mind that there will be players who are eligible for arbitration next year (Liriano and Slowey), but regardless of the situation, signing Joe Mauer needs to be a priority this season for the Twins despite any policies of not negotiating contracts during the season. It would be a shame if the Twins thought they would get a “hometown discount,” and wound up losing one of the greatest catchers of all time.
Joe’s market really depends on how healthy he can stay over the course of this season and if he can continue to hit the ball like he is. If he can do both of these things, there is no question in my mind that Joe will cash in. The question is where?
[1]Imagine if this were Joe Mauer. Could the Twins sue the salon?
Today’s post is from guest blogger Andrew Wright. Expect more up to the minute coverage coming from the Twins MVB tonight at the game. Happy Opening Day fans!
Ok…..who’s excited? If you find yourself asking “why should I be excited?” I am questioning your “fanliness”. I shouldn’t even have to say it, but to be clear, today is opening day! I have been waiting for this day since I watched the Twins get beat in a one game playoff last fall by the much hated Chicago White Sox. I watched the game at a local bar, and remember seeing the Twins get set down one after another in the 9th.As I looked around the room, I had never seen such a collection of facial expressions before. If someone who knew nothing about baseball walked in the bar at that moment and saw the way people were looking at that over-sized plasma screen, you would have thought someone really important just died, at a young age, unexpectedly.
Then it hit me. The Twins have great fans, loyal fans. And it didn’t take a World Series win to establish the “Twins Nation.” I will admit that winning did play a role, but amongst Twins fans there seems to be a genuine loyalty that just doesn’t exist anymore (ok….besides the Cubs, but at this point, I think people just feel bad for them. It’s like parents being obligated to cheer for the kid who is never going to win anything at the 5th grade track and field day. Too bad we don’t have “Participation” medals in MLB.) Anyway, my point is that, I, like many other loyal Twins fans have been pacing the floor since that awful September night.Well, the day has finally arrived and I am more than ready for it. Let’s hope the Twins are too and haven’t forgotten what happened last September in Chicago.
The Twins will face the Seattle Mariners tonight at the Dome, which is hosting its final Twins opener. Francisco Liriano will get the nod for the Twins, as Scott Baker was recently placed on the 15-day DL. The Mariners will start Felix Hernandez. For Liriano, this start marks his first healthy season in about 2 years. For the Twins, this start will hopefully mark Liriano’s return to his 2006 dominant form.Manager Ron Gardenhire called Liriano’s performance this spring “Santana-Like,” giving Twins fans some hope that Liriano could be the missing link needed to lead the Twins deep into the playoffs this year.
I think that both pitchers will be sharp, but the Twins find a way to score some runs and win their home opener 4-2.
With exactly 20 days until Opening Day at the Metrodome pitchers are starting to stretch out longer outings and increase their pitch count. After the hitters edition it’s time to take a look at Who’s Hot/Who’s Not for the pitchers.
HOT
Kevin Slowey – Slowey looks like he’s already in midseason form allowing just two runs over nine innings this spring. Slowey has an awesome 10/1 strikeout to walk ratio and has only give up six hits total. I really believe Slowey can be on of the best #3 starters in the league this year.
Francisco Liriano – The Twins have really had a lot of strong pitching performances thus far in Ft. Myers, but it’s very promising to see Liriano shine this spring. The “Franchise” has a 2.19 ERA over 12.1 IP with a great 12/2 strikeout to walk ratio. Liriano was perfect in his last outing giving up zero runs, zero hits, and zero walks over four innings. With another year removed from Tommy John surgery, Liriano looks poised to return to his dominant form and I believe could be the X factor between a good Twins club and a potential World Series Twins club.
NOT
Jose Mijares - When the Twins signed Luis Ayala it became unsure if Mijares would make the Opening Day roster, but that was only because of youth and not production. However, Mijares has made the decision easy for the Twins posting a 10.13 ERA this spring. Mijares has walked eight batters and allowed eight hits in just 5.1 innings. Ron Gardenhire has expressed frustration with Mijares’ weight as well as his focus. Expect Jose to work out his issues in Rochester and be back with the club by summer time.
Scott Baker – After being anointed the Opening Day starter Baker has faltered a bit this spring. The staff ace has allowed 12 runs in 13 innings and a staggering 24 hits for an 8.31 ERA. For a smart, experienced pitcher like Baker these numbers aren’t too much to worry about and I still think Scott will have a big year as the Twins’ #1 starter, but the eight homeruns allowed this spring is a little concerning.
Compared to hitters I believe it takes longer for pitchers to get up to speed in February/March so all stats good and bad have to be taken with a grain of salt. With that said the Twins are in a good position heading into 2009 with a core of five young, solid starters in the rotation and Joe Nathan as an anchor in the bullpen.
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