Posted by Dan on November 23, 2009 under Dan | 
For years, the BBWAA picks for the Cy Young Awards and MVP were the subject of incredible scorn, especially among the sabermetric community. The 2005 AL Cy Young, for example, saw Bartolo Colon, armed with a 21-8 record, beat Johan Santana despite being subordinate to him in every category besides wins—three wins worse according to Baseball Prospectus’ Wins Above Replacement Player. Every team has their example, every year seems to bring new controversy, but 2009 seems to have been a big step in the right direction.
Zack Greinke netted the AL Cy Young, despite winning just 16 games, the lowest win totals for a Cy Young winner since 1994. There was some controversy over the NL award, but that was a choice among three deserving candidates, someone had to lose.
The BBWAA’s strong year continued Monday with the selection of Joe Mauer as the American League’s Most Valuable Player.
When I wrote about Mauer’s candidacy in mid-August, the primary argument against Mauer was that he didn’t play for a winning team. Had the season ended there, there would have been a big argument over whether Mauer’s superior numbers for a team that finished below .500 and in third place in a comparatively weaker division would be enough to propel him ahead of Mark Teixeira or Derek Jeter, who played a key role on a superior squad.
Fortunately for the Twins, that argument was done in by two months of solid play led by Mauer’s strong close to the season. With friend and fellow All-Star Justin Morneau on the pine, Mauer closed the season with a .391/.449/.652 line in August and .354/.471/.487 in September and a few games in October, simultaneously making the Twins a winning team and showing himself to be a clutch performer.
Philosophical arguments aside, Mauer was nothing short of dominant. He won the slash stat triple crown, boasting the highest batting average (.365), On-base percentage (.444), and slugging percentage (.587) in the AL, with only Albert Pujols’ and Prince Fielder’s slugging percentage preventing him from the major league mark. In the last 70 years, this has only been done nine times. Of those nine, seven were achieved by a first baseman, a left fielder, or a right fielder (hat tip to Ken Funck at Baseball Prospectus). Just twice coming into the season had an up-the-middle player hit anything approaching this well. Add in his 28 home runs, best among catchers, and 19.2% OBI%[percentage of runners on-base ahead of him that he successfully drove in], and it’s easy to see just how big a role he played in the Twins’ success.
But traditional stats can paint false pictures, perhaps advanced metrics will reveal Mauer’s flaw.
It looks as though Ben Zobrist won FanGraphs’ Wins Above Replacement crown at first blush, except that Joe Mauer gets no credit for his defense, since the defensive component of WAR (Ultimate Zone Rating or UZR) doesn’t categorize catchers. Giving Mauer credit for even average defense would push him over the top there.
Baseball Prospectus’ Value over Replacement Player has Mauer just a tick behind Albert Pujols and well ahead of the rest of the field, 20 runs ahead of Jeter and close to double Teixeira’s contribution. Tex chipped in a few more Equivalent Runs, but Mauer’s Equivalent Average was much, much higher. Among position players, Mauer ran away with the AL WARP-1 crown, though he did finish behind Zack Greinke. (To be honest, there’s a debate to be had as to whether Mauer or Greinke was more valuable to his team, a question that just isn’t salient when the players are Mauer and…any other player in the AL.)
When positional considerations are included, Mauer blows away the rest of the field. His contributions in terms of controlling a young pitching staff and adjusting to an uncharacteristically unsettled rotation are just two of the things that make catching uniquely difficult. The fact that other positions don’t have to deal with these issues shouldn’t take away from players like Jeter and Teixeira, but it is something that makes Mauer that much more valuable to his team.
I would love to tell you that this was a close vote, or that there are a lot of things that make this a difficult decision, and if the voters would actually vote for pitchers. Between Mauer and Greinke, I’m inclined to say that Mauer is still the MVP, but I’m certainly willing to hear arguments to the contrary. Irrespective, the voters have made it abundantly clear that a pitcher’s place is not in the MVP voting. In a battle between Joe Mauer and the rest of the position players in the American League, it just isn’t close.
The voters got this one right, continuing their strong showing in 2009, Joe Mauer truly is the American League’s Most Valuable Player
Posted by twinsmvb on November 26, 2008 under Dain |
The Case for Morneau
Here it is, as promised. My case for why Justin Morneau is the MVP of the Twins, hands down over Sideburns Joe. Not only is he the MVP of the Twins, he indeed was the AL MVP in 2006 and earned 2nd place this magical season of ought-eight. Statistics are, of course, heavily considered in choosing an MVP, though the subjective is what truly determines the MVP. That is why you won’t find much number crunching here. The MVP selection is always surrounded by controversy save the very few unanimous choices – the way it should be due to the fact that most seasons any one of four or five guys could carry the crown. Alas, we are not discussing THE MVP, just the Twins MVP. It’s Justin.
There are a lot of reasons why the Twins were one run away from the playoffs. As I think back to my opening day expectations that would have been a rather daring, yet charming belief. I was truly anticipating something resembling more of a Minnesota Timberwolves campaign. Honestly. And I was okay with it. After seven/eight years of high expectations and mild to extreme disappointment, I was ready to lower my guard and simply sit back and enjoy the game of baseball and some young, developing talent. But no, the Twins surprised and were right in the mix because of several factors. I will list them as such; first the factors NECESSARY as a bare minimum for the pennant run:
1) The first half pitching by Livan Hernandez. Without him carrying the load for the young pitching staff the Twins would not have made it to June with a respectable record. I recall our starting five having about 15 combined wins after the first 60 games. Thank you Livo.
2) The failure of the Lamb/Harris/Everett infield allowed the Twins to utilize Alexi Casilla early on in the season and he produced more RBIs than me in the backyard baseball season of ‘89. Casilla was absolutely on fire. He carried the offensive spark that was missing from Mauer, Young, Cuddyer, et al. Much like the failed Castro/Batista experiment in ‘06 that allowed Bartlett and Punto to flourish, Casilla ushered in the ‘08 version.
3) Thank goodness Cuddyer got hurt because Denard Span saved this team as well. Cuddy wasn’t doing much of anything in that #3 spot initially, then 5 or 6 or wherever he hit. Span was tearing it up in AAA, deserved to be on the team from day one, and when he got his second call-up he did not blink. Speed, production, defense, he did it all.
4) Joe Mauer. Hey, just cause he’s not the MVP doesn’t mean he isn’t extremely valuable. That’s an understatement. Another batting title certainly is hard to overlook, especially considering he did it as a catcher. He played more this year and stayed healthy which was key to the team’s success. A gold glove as well to add to the nonexistence of a running game for opponents thanks to Joe. He deserves a good chunk of the credit for the success of #5 below as well, although he has to split that with Rick Anderson and the aforementioned Hernandez.
5) The Staff of youngins who pitched out of their minds. Slowey, Blackburn, Perkins, Liriano, and Baker. These guys are pure filth. I don’t know how the Twins consistently develop such good young pitching. Although they really need to stop giving up the long ball.
6) Go-go. Yeah he helped too. Despite all his strikeouts and stretches of ugly baseball, the kid was a spark at times and played his butt off all season.
So there it is, six NECESSARY components to the value of the team. But they alone, are not SUFFICIENT to explain the pennant run. That would be Mr. MVP. Take away any one of those six pieces and the Twins still can compete. Don’t believe me? They proved it. Harris and Punto filled in for Casilla when he was hurt or struggling. On countless at bats Gomez might as well have walked up to the plate and told the ump, “45,000 people know that I won’t come within four feet of the ball these next three pitches, so can I just sit down?” but the Twins still found ways to win. The staff had off days, the bullpen or offense picked them up. And yes, even when Mauer’s line read “4-3. 4-3. 4-6-3. 4-3″ the team stayed alive. And that is because of the first baseman.
This team simply would have been nowhere near the top without Morneau. Gardy didn’t think so either. The Canadian found his way into all 163 games. Morneau had 47 doubles. Mauer had 44 extra-base hits combined. Pitchers gave Mauer stuff to hit because they didn’t want to face the MVP. Morneau had no legitimate threat behind him. Most of the time hurlers were licking their chops to get at Kubel or Delmon. That’s the cake: Morneau put up a .300 average, 129 RBIs (44 more than Mauer), and 23 HR with pitchers trying to avoid him all season. Not to mention the much improved defense from the once awkward first sacker.
Next year I’ll take Justin to prove it again.
Posted by twinsmvb on November 18, 2008 under John |
We will see today at 1 pm EST. The honor would be a great one for Morneau who would join a small club of multi-MVP winners. However, I’m not feeling too optimistic about Justin’s chances.
In no way a slight against Justin, the guy had an awesome season batting .300 with 23 homeruns and 129 RBIs, but I just feel like his stumble down the stretch will cost him this award. There is also a hot debate among Twins bloggers and writers if Morneau is even the MVP of his own team. As much as I like Justin, I happen to be in the Joe Mauer as team MVP camp and if any other MLB writers feel the same way it’ll cost Morneau the award.
It’s too bad because I feel like once Chicago’s Carlos Quentin went down with injury the MVP was Morneau’s to lose. Sadly, he did a pretty good job at trying to lose it down the stretch. It must be noted the Twins would not have even been in playoff contention if it weren’t for their Canadian first baseman, but unfortunately in the final 10 games of the season Morneau batted just .135 with zero homeruns and only one RBI. He struck out nine times and just stopped coming up with the big hits that he had for the five months prior. It is no doubt that with the playoff pressure and talk of MVP Justin appeared to press a little at the plate but it’s just too bad he couldn’t have even hit just .200 with one or two homeruns and like five or six RBIs.
However, I’m not completely counting out Morneau. The American League race is wide open with Dustin Pedroia, Morneau, Carlos Quentin, Josh Hamilton, and Francisco Rodriguez all most likely receiving recognition. I think the winner will really come down to the 2nd and 3rd place votes. The numbers will be spread around and maybe like in 2006, Justin Morneau will come out the surprise MVP winner!
Posted by twinsmvb on December 10, 2007 under John |
With news from the Santana front appearing relatively still (could change any day now), I wanted to focus my attention on a different Twins star: Justin Morneau.
I think with Torii’s departure to the Angels and the high likelihood of Santana still being traded away, the Twins stand to learn a lesson this offseason. SIGN YOUR STARS TO LONG TERM CONTRACTS AS SOON AS YOU CAN!
In the past, the Twins have maintained the philosophy of not signing long-term deals for fear of the signed player suffering a significant injury or turning out to be a fluke after a career year. I understand this is wise as the small market Twins cannot afford to get bogged down by bad long term contracts; however, there is something to be said for rewarding your star players and locking them up while you can still afford to do so.
During 2006 season when Johan Santana was revving up his campaign for his second AL Cy Young award the Twins could have locked up Santana to long term deal of roughly $15 million a season. This was the market value at the time for frontline pitchers. It was clear Santana was no fluke. He had already won one Cy Young award (should have won two) and had proven his durability over multiple seasons. Instead, Santana is set to change the market for star pitchers as he may possibly command a salary of nearly $25 million a year.
In that same 2006 season while Justin Morneau was putting up his MVP winning numbers, the New York Mets signed their young stars, David Wright and Jose Reyes, to long-term deals of 6 years $55 million and 4 years $23 million respectively. These may appear like heavy contracts, but these two players were emerging stars and now have very affordable contracts. It’s ok that the Twins wanted to make sure that Morneau’s MVP season wasn’t just a fluke, but this past season he clearly showed he is a major league star. Granted, Morneau’s 2007 season was a down year from the year before but he is one of baseball’s best young players and an integral part of the Twins’ future.
Joe Mauer was signed to a 4 year $33 million deal before the 2007 season to ensure he will be playing when the new ballpark opens in 2010. Now Justin Morneau MUST be signed to a long-term deal while we still can.
Consider the loss of Torii Hunter and the probable loss of Johan Santana a lesson. I don’t think Twins fans could take much more.
