After a satisfying series victory over the divisional rival Detroit Tigers, the Twins will end their homestand with a four-game set against the Tampa Bay Rays.
Tampa Bay started the season off on an excellent note, perching themselves atop the American League East while the Yankees and Red Sox tried to re-group. Now, though, the Rays have struggled to maintain their pitching prowess, and have slipped in the standings.
Still one of the best teams in baseball, though, the Rays will be trying to accomplish the same thing as the Twins during this series: closing the door on a rotten June in an attempt to get back on track in July.
Game One – Jeff Niemann (6-2, 2.72) vs. Carl Pavano (9-6, 3.33)
Niemann, 27, was a major factor into Tampa Bay’s incredible start to the season, posting a 2.38 ERA through the month of May. Like his team, though, Niemann took a step back in June. This step back has been minimal, but could be the start of a major regression.
Despite coming off two successful starts against National League squads, Niemann is a classic example of a pitcher with artificially impressive stats. With an extremely low BABIP, a low line drive percentage, and a very high strand rate, it’s not a question of whether or not Niemann will regress; it’s a question of when.
While he’s certainly not as good of a pitcher as his stats suggest, Niemann may not return to earth for quite a while. The longer he keeps up this façade, though, the harder his fall will be.
Pavano’s success, meanwhile, appears to be more a result of ability. Although he has the benefit of a low BABIP and high strand rate, Pavano hasn’t given up any fewer line drives than is usual for the 34-year old. His overall talent level is probably worse than his current 3.33 ERA, but to expect a 4.00 ERA on the season would be fair.
Though not the case for most Twins, the month of June has been extremely friendly to Pavano. Coming off two consecutive complete games, Pavano has an ERA of 2.25 through 40 June innings. Pavano (and teammate Francisco Liriano) have been paramount to Minnesota’s ability to avoid a free-fall this month.
Both BJ Upton and Carl Crawford have dealt with minor bumps and buises these past few days, and they may miss a game or two during this series.
Game Two – David Price (11-3, 2.44) vs. Scott Baker (4-7, 4.97)
A few weeks ago, David Price was in the same boat as Niemann; a lucky pitcher who would likely plummet back to a more realistic realm. Instead of regressing, though, Price seems to be finally tapping into his incredible potential.
Price, 24, has marginal success last year with basically two pitches: a four-seam fastball and a slider. This season Price has introduced two new pitches: a curveball and a two-seam fastball. With the ability to better deceive opposing batters, Price has had great success in 2010. His ERA won’t stay below 2.50 for too long, and he won’t be able to strand nearly as many runners as he is now, but Price, the first overall pick in the 2007 draft, has started to realize his potential. Which should frighten batters across the American League.
Baker has been one of the most disappointing players for Minnesota this season. A career 4.36 ERA pitcher, Baker’s near-5.00 ERA this season has angered many fans. Looking at the stats, though, shows that Baker has BABIP slightly higher than is usual for the right-hander, and that more fly balls than usual are ending up as home runs. Both of these will likely regress eventually, though, Minnesota fans could be treated to a start along the lines of Baker’s most recent.
Game Three – Wade Davis (5-9, 4.68) vs. Francisco Liriano (6-6, 3.47)
When looking at opposing pitchers in these series previews, I usually make sure to mention whether or not that pitcher has had “luck” on their side. In Davis’ case, though, his poor stats are simply because he hasn’t pitched very well.
Whether his issues are mental or mechanical isn’t necessarily known, but he has garned far fewer swinging strikes than in the past. This lack of deception has greatly hurt his stats, and Price could be replaced by top prospect Jeremy Hellickson very soon.
Liriano has been one of the best pitchers in the American League this season, and “luck” hasn’t played too big a factor in his success. He will give up more home runs per fly ball than he is now, but all signs point back to the biggest reason for Liriano’s success: his improved slider.
Game Four – James Shields (6-8, 4.76) vs. Nick Blackburn (7-5, 6.02)
On the face of things, it appears that Shields has been unimpressive this season. When trying to root out the reason for this mediocrity, though, I can’t find any glaring abnormalities. Most of his batted-ball and plate discipline stats have remained the same from years past, as Shields is still inducing plenty of ground balls and getting ahead in the count at a very impressive clip.
So why is the ground-ball pitcher struggling? For one, his BABIP is slightly higher, but something intangible is also a likely culprit. In any case, Shields hasn’t been very effective this season, and there is no reason to believe that his mediocrity will end against the Twins.
Blackburn has also struggled to get batters out this year, but we can pinpoint exactly what is ailing the 28-year old righty: He just isn’t very good. He is dead-last in the league in strikeouts per nine innings, and when he throws a pitch in the strike zone, opposing batters make contact an astounding 96.6 percent of the time, which is also tops in the league.
Marginally successful for the past few years, Blackburn relied upon his extremely accurate arm to paint the corners of the plate and walk very few opposing batters. This year, however, it appears the league knows that most of Blackburn’s pitches are hittable.
The Twins had a tough go of things against the Atlanta Braves, but you’d be hard pressed to say that they didn’t play one of the NL’s best all but square. The Twins had a chance, with the bases loaded and Jason Kubel up in the second game, to win the series before game three started, but couldn’t get it done and paid the price.
I feel somewhat obligated to weigh in on the Twins…lack of an optimal Sunday lineup, but I won’t belabor the point. Many managers, league wide, rested stars on Sunday with the day off Monday to maximize their rest, so in that sense, it’s probably a blessing that Joe Mauer was in the squad at all. The only decision that really bothers me was the decision to give Denard Span a day off with Kevin Slowey on the mound. Span’s played a lot, and probably needs a day off, but with Slowey’s flyball tendencies, it seemed to me to be a poor time to give him the day off. Yes, it ended up being moot, but that was what struck me.
No point in dwelling on the past, so it’s on to the future.
Let’s not kid ourselves, games one and two are merely an undercard to the Jimenez/Liriano battle in game three, but every game counts the same, so here’s the breakdown.
Game One
Aaron Cook has been one of the Rockies’ most consistent starters over his nine seasons with the team. Not always consistently good, but typically not despicably bad either. Since becoming a full-time starter, Cook has never posted a full-season ERA+ below 110 but only once has he posted an ERA+ over 120. His career WHIP is 1.44 and his ERA is 4.35; he’s nothing special but not bad either.
In that light, this season has been something of a disappointment for him and for the Rockies by extension. His WHIP and ERA are up, he’s walking more hitters and striking out fewer, all of which has lead to his struggles. While some might try and blame his issues on his hitter-friendly home park, Cook has been substantially worse on the road. At Coors, Cook is holding hitters to a .222/.288/.325 line with 2 HR allowed, but on the road, hitters are tagging him to the tune of .322/.394/.432 line with another 2 HR.
The Twins lefties—Span, Mauer, Morneau, and the DH du jour—should feast on the righty, as Cook has been hard-pressed to retire port-siders. He’s allowed them a .322/.394/.398 line with 20 walks to just 9 strikeouts.
We’ve outlined Pavano’s Jekyll and Hyde tendencies before, but it bears repeating. In wins, Pavano is holding hitters to a .217/.245/.289 line with just 1 HR, but in losses, hitters beat him for a .316/.354/.520 line with 7 HR. If he’s good, he’s really good (WHIP of 0.91 in wins) but when he’s bad, the Twins really have to hit the ball well to back him up (WHIP of 1.46 in losses).
Ultimately, there’s isn’t a lot of rhyme or reason to his blow-ups. Some come at home, some on the road. Sometimes he struggles against good teams like Texas, sometimes it’s Kansas City that gets to him. Lefty heavy lineups can do him slight, and the Rockies have just three righties in their expected lineup, so it could be a rough outing for Pavano on Tuesday. Or he could throw a perfect game, you decide.
Game Two
Game two will be a worthy warmup to the main event with Scott Baker squaring off against Jhoulys Chacin.
While Kevin Slowey’s inability to pitch deep into games has been well-chronicled, here and elsewhere, but Baker hasn’t been much better. He’s pitched six innings or fewer in eight of his 13 starts so far this season and has a 6.59 ERA in those eight starts.
Baker’s struggles have come from a few factors in concert. He’s giving up more hits, an above average amount of home runs, and seen his strikeouts fall from by almost a full K/9. Hitters aren’t swinging at as many of Baker’s pitches in the zone as they did last year, but they are making more consistent contact and hitting the ball harder. Baker’s slugging percentage allowed is at its highest level since 2006 and he’s still having the same trouble with home runs that he did in 2009.
For all the trouble he has had, there have been a few really strong starts, though he has yet to put the Twins on his back against a strong opponent. If there’s anyone who has benefitted from the emergence of Francisco Liriano as the staff ace, it’s Baker, who would be under much more scrutiny if he were called on to be the team’s stopper.
Chacin made back-to-back tremendous starts, going 14.2 innings before giving up his first run. Once they came, however, the runs have come in bunches. Since going seven innings in both of his first two starts, Chacin has completed six innings just two other times and he’s yet to allow fewer than two runs in a start. He’s still a high strikeout pitcher, averaging 9.7 K/9 and will keep the Twins at bay with his slider, which he sets up with a low-90s fastball.
Chacin is another pitcher who is tougher on right-handers than lefties, so it could be a tough few games for Delmon Young and Michael Cuddyer, though the former has been hitting everything lately, as he’s hitting .371/.378/.657 with 3 HR and 13 driven in during his current 10-game hitting streak.
Game Three
The main event. In this corner, the best pitcher in baseball, a guy putting up video game numbers, and one of the biggest surprises of the 2010 first half: Ubaldo Jimenez. There’s not much to say in terms of his splits. He’s better against rigthies than lefties, but neither are hitting above .200 against him. He’s better on the road than at home, which doesn’t bode well for the Twins, but he’s dangerous everywhere. His ERA of 1.16 is lower than all but 25 starters’ WHIP, but his WHIP of 0.97 is just third behind both Doug Fister—who the Twins beat in Seattle—and Cliff Lee. His only loss came when the Dodgers shut the Rockies out over a month ago. Since then he’s won all six of his decisions.
So, how do the Twins crack his steel shell? Efficiency is the name of this game, if the Twins get a runner into scoring position, they simply have to drive him in. Jimenez isn’t immune from walking a few, which may be the opening the Twins need. To be clear, I don’t like their chances in this game, but I don’t think it’s an impossible task, due in no small part to their starter.
Liriano isn’t as good as Jimenez—shocking, I know—but he has been outstanding in his own right. He’s striking out nearly 10 hitters per nine, he’s keeping the ball in the ballpark, and he’s posting the lowest walk-rate of his career. Both of his starts this month have produced double-digit strikeout totals and seven or more innings of quality work. In his last start against Atlanta, Liriano was every bit as good as mound opponent Tim Hudson and helped the Twins win a close game against a good team, something they have struggled to do this season. I’m not saying he has to throw a shutout to beat Jimenez, I’m just saying it’d really help, and if that is what the Twins will need from their pitcher to win the game, I’m glad it’s Liriano on the hill.
It looks like Orlando Hudson won’t return during this series, which puts more pressure on the lineup regulars to perform. It’s worth watching to see what lineups Ron Gardenhire uses on both Wednesday and Thursday, as it’s unlikely that Joe Mauer would catch both games, but pitting Drew Butera against Jimenez just isn’t going to end well. If that’s the plan, I’d rather start every third inning with an out already on the board, you know, to save time.
The Twins’ saving grace in this series is that all three of the Rockies’ starters is more susceptible to lefties than righties. They’ll need better production from Justin Morneau in this series than they got from him against Atlanta, as his 1-for-10 was certainly part of the Twins’ inability to score runs. Of course it goes without saying that they need more production from Brendan Harris or Trevor Plouffe, as well as Jim Thome when he gets his chances.
At the risk of sounding like Capt. Pessimistic, I think the Twins will lose the series and struggle to win the game they do get. The Rox have been an up and down team, losing 3-of-4 to the Astros, then sweeping the Blue Jays, so it’s difficult to gage their form exactly. That said, I’m not wild about the Twins’ direction right now and I think they’ll struggle against Jimenez and one of the right-handers and lose this series.
Starting the season with low expectations and a very young team, the Oakland Athletics find themselves at the top of their division through the first third of the season. In the Oakland Colosseum, the Athletics boast an impressive 19-8 record. As the Twins attempt to shake off a disappointing series with Seattle, the Athletics appear an intimidating foe.
Game One - Baker (5-4, 4.48 ERA)vs. Braden (4-5, 3.60 ERA)
As I’m sure you’re aware, Braden tossed the first perfect game of this historic 2010 season. Despite being forever plastered in the record books, though, Braden is not an elite pitcher. His BABIP is unusually low, which is why his FIP is higher than his impressive-on-the-surface ERA. Braden has been an extreme fly-ball pitcher, and is very prone to the home run ball. He doesn’t strike out many opposing batters at all, though his fastball/changeup duo are noteworthy.
Baker, on the other hand, has fought off some tough luck so far this season. His BABIP is a few points higher than his career average, which indicates a possible regression of opposing batters’ ability to keep their batted balls out of Minnesota gloves. Baker’s strikeout and groundball rates are higher than last year, and he’s averaging just over six innings of work per start.
Twins fans have long been searching for an ace since Johan Santana was dealt away. Liriano hasn’t been able to fill the void, but so far this season Baker has looked everything like an ace. If Baker can step up and help the Twins finish off this tough road series on a good note, the unofficial designation of “staff ace” is his to lose.
Game Two -Liriano (5-3, 3.29 ERA) vs. Cahill (4-2, 3.02 ERA)
So far this season, few pitchers have been as lucky as Trevor Cahill. With a BABIP of just .222, he is sure to regress to the mean eventually. Will it be against the Twins tomorrow night? Probably not. Even so, Cahill has struck out opposing batters at one of the lowest rates in the league while walking around three per nine innings. He has been aided by an extremely good groundball rate, as well as a great strand rate.
Liriano started the season off beautifully, but struggled for a brief three-game stretch before returning to his groove. If you remove Liriano’s starts on May 8, 15, and 20 from his season total, his ERA drops to just 2.02. Even with the low ERA (which isn’t the best way to evaluate a pitcher), Liriano’s FIP is even lower. He has struggled through a very high BABIP of .349 while striking out just over nine opposing batters per nine innings.
With five days of rest, Liriano’s ERA is 1.78. Unfortunately, Liriano will only get four days of R&R during this turn of the starting rotation, where he has an ERA of 5.76.
Game Three – Blackburn (6-2, 4.73 ERA) vs. Gonzalez (5-3, 3.68 ERA)
Fortunately, the Twins will be able to escape Oakland without being forced to find an answer for Brett Anderson. Instead, they will take on three young starters who boast very impressive ERAs, and are currently riding lucky streaks. Gonzalez has been able to limit baserunners at a great clip this year, with a WHIP of just 1.29. He hasn’t struck out many, though, and his strand rate is way above his career average.
Blackburn has been one of the more disappointing Twins’ pitchers this year. He is currently dead-last in the league in strikeouts per nine innings, and his walk and homerun rate are both higher than last year. Blackburn’s ability to induce groundballs is up, but his stats don’t look to be aided by a BABIP regression anytime soon. He has been able to provide the Twins with plenty of average innings, though, as he’s averaged 6.42 innings per start so far this season.
It’s way too early to apply the “must-win” label to this series, but two or even three wins in Oakland could help the Twins prepare for a tough interleague stretch later this month.
Another rematch against a team that we just can’t seem to beat.
After being swept in the season series against the Yankees last year, and losing two of three to them in our first meeting this year, the Twins will be considered the underdog in this series, despite what the above numbers say. Should the Twins fail to win this series against the Bronx Bombers, there will undoubtedly be people throwing in the towel on the season, citing the Twins’ inability to beat the “good teams” that they will be paired up against in the postseason.
That’s certainly an overreaction, but winning two of three in the Yankee’s first visit to Target Field sure would be nice.
Game One - Burnett (4-2, 3.86 ERA) vs. Baker (4-4, 4.88 ERA)
AJ Burnett has certainly been having a great season, and was among the early favorites for Cy Young before he got rocked for six runs in just under seven innings a few days ago. Ignoring that last start, Burnett has been an above-average starter. He isn’t striking out his usual total, though, and he is giving up plenty of hits. If an offensively potent team can string some hits together — like the Rays did last week — Burnett’s ERA may rise a few dozen points.
On the face of things, it appears as if Baker is his “start the season slow” mode. With a relatively high 4.88 ERA, Baker is hardly pitching well enough to be considered the staff’s “ace.” As evidenced by his abnormally-high .343 BABIP and improved groundball rate, Baker may be on the cusp of a few lucky breaks. Baker is striking out the most in his career and walking opposing batters at a very low clip, and has the 25th-lowest xFIP in baseball: 3.70.
Game Two – Pettitte (5-1, 2.68 ERA) vs. Liriano (4-3, 3.25 ERA)
Andy Pettitte has been the anti-Baker so far this year. Although his ERA and win/loss record is appealing, his xFIP is a much-higher 4.34, which testaments to his high walk rate, low strikeout rate, and low BABIP, all of which indicate a regression to the mean in the very near future. Pettitte also has a very impressive 82.2 strand-rate, which simply isn’t sustainable over the course of a whole season.
After posting a 7.02 ERA over his last three starts, Liriano seems to have finally convinced people that he will never return to his pre-surgery form. Even with three less-than-desirable starts so far this year, Liriano’s intangibles have been right in line of what we expect: a solid strikeout rate and an average walk rate. His almost complete aversion of the long-ball this year (he’s given up just two home runs all season) is also good to see.
Game Three – Vazquez (3-4, 6.69 ERA) vs. Blackburn (5-1, 4.50 ERA)
After dealing away a package centering around Melky Cabrera for Javy Vazquez, the Yankees are undoubtedly upset with their return. Vazquez, who finished fourth in Cy Young voting last season, is off to a terrible start with New York. His sky-high ERA is only slightly worse than the advanced stats claim, and hope can’t even be gleaned from his BABIP, which is maddeningly (at least for Yankees fans) normal.
Blackburn, on the other hand, has pitched worse than his ERA indicates. Striking out an extremely low 2.50 batters per nine innings (the lowest mark in baseball among qualified pitchers) and giving up far more than his fair share of home runs, Blackburn has been “off” this season. His BABIP isn’t too far off line, and he is inducing more groundballs than he usually does, which is what he needs to do to be successful in 2010. Against the mighty Yankee’s offense, I’m guessing a full return to his usually-reliable self isn’t going to happen.
This series will be the last time the Twins play the Yankees this season. While too much shouldn’t be read into a mid-May series, any matchup of two of the best teams in baseball is important. Another series lose would leave an awful taste in Twins’ fans mouths, but a good showing could help spring-board a successful June for Minnesota.
There’s a lot of hyperbole circulating about this weekend’s series against the Yankee. I agree that it’s a big deal, but it’s no bigger than any other series against a potential playoff opponent. Yes, the Yankees dominated the Twins last year, and yes, the Twins typically don’t play well in the Bronx. But to borrow a phrase from every stock brokerage commercial ever: Past performance does not guarantee future results.
The Twins will miss C.C. Sabathia, who pitched Thursday in a loss, and likely Phil Hughes, which gives them an advantage in this series. Hughes could pop up in Game Three, but I doubt it, more on this later.
The Yanks are a little out of sorts right now. The rainout and subsequent doubleheader knocked their rotation out of whack, mitigated somewhat by the return of Andy Pettitte. Injuries have hit them early this season, with Curtis Granderson and Nick Johnson on the shelf and Jorge Posada and Robbie Cano playing a little dinged up.
They’ve gotten solid contributions from Brett Gardner and Francisco Cervelli, but the fact remains that they aren’t the Yankees team of last year’s second half that could simply outpitch, outhit, and outrun an opponent. They may yet get there, but they are beatable right now, as Detroit showed by taking three of four from the Bronx bombers and shutting them out twice.
Game One pits two pitchers coming off of opposite starts.
Scott Baker bounced back from two bad starts to give the Twins two really good ones in their last homestand. He’s limiting his home runs allowed, which is a huge key to his success, and if he can keep his walks down—as he did in his last start against the Orioles—he’s likely to give the Twins another solid start. Mark Teixeira is one of Baker’s great nemeses as he’s gone 4-for-7 with a home run against him. Not a large sample, to be sure, but a matchup that’s worth watching.
A.J. Burnett was sailing to open the season, including back-to-back shut down starts against the Orioles before turning in a horrendous effort against the Red Sox last Sunday. He’s not striking out as many hitters as he has in the past—his K/9 is down to 6.4 from a career average of 8.3—but is still having good success forcing hitters to put the ball in play. Joe Mauer, Delmon Young, and Justin Morneau have all had reasonably good success against the righty over their careers, but none has more than 20 ABs against him. By comparison, Jim Thome has 30 career ABs against Burnett and has stuck out in 11 of them.
Game Two shapes up to be toughest game of the series for both teams, one which could easily be decided by one bad pitch by either starter.
Francisco Liriano had the best bad start I’ve seen in a long time his last time out. Yeah, he allowed 10 hits and five runs over six innings, but if three of those balls were hard-hit, I missed one. It was “Death by 1000 Cuts” or “What the 2002-2008 Twins Were Hated For”. It was his worst start of the year, but unless that happens again, I won’t be too concerned. These things happen to everyone, even the best aren’t immune. It’s basically not worth talking about the Yankees’ hitters versus Liriano over the course of their career since he’s a fundamentally different pitcher than he was before, but Marcus Thames is 4-for-9 with three home runs against him.
Andy Pettitte wasn’t a lock to make this start after missing his last time through the rotation with elbow soreness, but he’s back, due in no small part to the rotation jumble the Yankees face after their doubleheader. Pettitte has been really good this season, giving up more than two runs in a start just once so far and allowing just one home run in 34 innings of work. If he’s on his game, he’ll force the Twins to be very efficient in their offense, something they haven’t really done this season. Of the seven Twins with 10 or more ABs against Pettitte, five have batting averages over .350, though he’s allowed just two home runs to the current Twins lineup. The Twins should put a decent number of runners on against Pettitte, but their ability to get the decisive hit when they need it will determine whether or not they can give Pettitte his first loss of 2010.
Game Three would have been a much rougher draw for the Twins had the Yankees remained on their normal rotation, as they would have faced the red-hot Phil Hughes rather than Sergio Mitre.
Since returning from a family emergency, Nick Blackburn has put together back-to-back quality starts. He shut down the Orioles in his most recent start and held the Tigers more or less in check in the start immediately preceding that. Blackburn drew a lot of flak early in the season for not pitching well at all after signing his new contract this offseason, but he is the same pitcher who threw nine consecutive quality starts in the middle of last season. Yes, he’s the Twins fourth or fifth best starter, but he’s entirely capable of turning in a line of really solid performances. He was as good as anyone in the Orioles series, but with the big bats of the Yankees in their matchbox of a park, I’m a little concerned about him in this start. Teixeira is 6-for-6 with a bomb lifetime against Blackburn, so…that’s not promising.
Blackburn faces Sergio Mitre, who started in Andy Pettitte’s place last time through the rotation. He gave up three earned runs and one jack in his 4 1/3 innings of work against the Tigers. He generated 10 groundball outs, however, something he’ll look to do again. If the Twins can get into the Yankees’ bullpen early in the series, they may get an extra long look at Mtire, who is not used to pitching more than 3-4 innings.
Something to watch for in all three games is the Yankees’ running game. Gardner is a very quick runner and one who gets pretty good jumps—he’s 16/17 in steals so far this season—and the Twins had some issues with the aggressive running style of the White Sox. The Yankees may try to exploit that flaw early and often, hopefully Mauer and Hudson have gotten their issues addressed. If not, it could be up to the pitchers to keep Gardner and, to a much lesser extent, Jeter off the bases.
Conclusion: It’s a tough call. On paper, I like the Twins’ chances Friday night, but Saturday and Sunday are too close for either team to be a rock-solid lock. Blackburn should be better than Mitre, but Mitre isn’t going to pitch the Yankees out of that game either. The X-factor here is the Yankees’ performance at home, where they are 10-2 this season. I don’t see either team sweeping, but either team could win 2-1. My hunch is that the Yankees give the Twins their second series loss of the season.
For the first time in franchise history, the Minnesota Twins have opened the season with four straight series victories. Although they have yet to bring out the brooms, the Twins are certainly on a great start to the 2010 season.
Tomorrow, Minnesota will close out their first home-stand against the division-rival Cleveland Indians. On the face of things, Cleveland appears to be mired in the middle of an extensive rebuilding period, and a look at their starting rotation does little to inspire confidence, but the Indians are a team that could surprise quite a few.
On Tuesday night, Kevin Slowey will take the hill against Justin Masterson in Game One of the series. Masterson was traded from the Boston Red Sox last season in exchange for Victor Martinez, and is one of the more under-rated starting pitchers in the division. A ground-ball pitcher, Masterson features a deadly slider that will miss plenty of bats. In his first 11 innings this season, Masterson has an ERA of 2.45 (an xFIP of 1.91), and 11.45 strikeouts per nine innings.
Game Two will pit Francisco Liriano against lefty David Huff. Huff has thrown 15 innings this season, and has an ERA of 1.80. His slider is an above-average offering, but he certainly wouldn’t be a No. 3 starter in many other places. Game Three of the three-game series will match up Scott Baker and Mitch Talbot. Currently sporting an attractive 3.21 ERA through his first 14 innings, the right-handed Talbot has shown a good, cutting fastball this year.
The Indians certainly have a less-than-stellar starting rotation, and the Twins will be able to score plenty of runs early in the game. Cleveland’s bullpen, however, could be a little tougher to crack. Anchored by Kerry Wood, the Cleveland bullpen consisting of Chris Perez, Tony Sipp, and Joe Smith is relatively solid.
Cleveland’s real strength, though, is their offense. Asdrubal Cabrera, Travis Hafner, and Shin Soo-Choo form a very potent top third of the batting order, and Travis Hafner, Jhonny Peralta, and Russel Branyon are no easy-outs, either. Even the last three hitters in their lineup — Luis Valbuena, Lou Marson, and Michael Brantley — are all projected by Baseball Prospectus to post VORPs over 10.
Slowey had a rough outing the last time he threw from the bump, and he should be ready to redeem himself. Baker and Liriano should perform well, too, but any of these three are prime candidates for another unforeseen implosion like Carl Pavano gave yesterday.
If the Twins can continue to rake opposing pitchers (they have a team OPS of .820; fifth-highest in the league) they should have no problem against the Indians. These could be three high-scoring games, but the key bases-clearing doubles that the Twins have lacked through the first few games should come around eventually.
The Twins’ scouting department had a down year in 2003, drafting just three players who eventually reached the Big Leagues. Of those three, just Scott Baker is putting together a solid career. Here are the more notable picks in the 2003 draft.
1st Round (21st overall) – Matthew Moses, 3B
Never known as an elite defensive player, the Twins knew that Moses’ bat would carry him to the major leagues, where he would hopefully take over at third base. Minnesota hadn’t enjoyed a consistent third baseman since Corey Koskie left, and they felt that Moses could eventually compete for the job. Outside of his bat, Moses was a very average player.
He wasn’t the best defensively, was a poor base-runner, and didn’t have the strongest arm. In his first 18 games in the Gulf Coast League, though, Moses managed to hit .385/.417/.492. A physical in 2003 revealed that Moses had a small hole in his heart that a 20-minute operation fixed.
Whether or not this had anything to do with his decline can’t be known for sure, but in 2004 Moses hit .223/.304/.366 in Quad Cities (Low A). In half a season in Fort Myers in 2005 Moses hit .306/.376/.453, but as soon as he was promoted to New Britain he fell apart again.
Moses spent the entire 2006 season with the Rock Cats, where he hit .249/.303/.386. He bounced between New Britain and Rochester in 2007, but returned to the Rock Cats in 2008. Last year was again spent with the Rock Cats, where Moses hit .224/.274/.353. Sadly, Moses has been awarded the “bust” label, and there is little hope that he will ever develop into what the Twins envisioned.
2nd Round (58th overall) – Scott Baker, RHP
The one saving grace of the 2003 draft, Baker flew through the minor leagues. Just over a year after he was drafted, in 2004, Baker was mowing down batters in Triple-A Rochester. In 2005 he reached the Twins and posted a 3.35 ERA in just over 50 innings. From that point forward, Baker has enjoyed a very successful major-league career.
This year, Baker is considered Minnesota’s ace, though he would be a solid No. 2 or No. 3 starting pitcher most other places. Over the course of his career, Baker has amassed an ERA of 4.27 in 653 innings and 6.9 strikeouts per nine innings.
4th Round (118th overall) – David Shinskie, RHP
Shinskie was selected out of Mt. Carmel High School in the fourth round in 2003, despite having received football scholarship offers from BSC schools. He stumbled around the minor leagues for about six years before retiring his glove and attempting to re-start his football career last year.
At 25-years old, Shinskie received a scholarship from Boston College and an offer to compete for their quarterback position. Shinksie was a four-year starter at quarterback at Mr. Carmel High School, and he won two state championships. In 2009, Shinskie threw for 2,049 yards and 15 touchdowns as he led the Eagles to an 8-4 record. They lost to USC in the Emerald Bowl.
14th Round (418th overall) – Levale Speigner, RHP
This pick is probably only notable because after Washington stole Speigner from us in the 2006 Rule V draft he went on to shut us down in 2007. Against Johan Santana on June 9, 2007, Speigner went six innings giving up just one run on two hits. He compiled a season ERA of 8.78, but he dominated the team he was drafted by.
(Note – as the 2004 draft involves several players who are still progressing through the Minnesota organization, I will stop my draft evaluation series here. But be sure to stick around here throughout the season for all the Twins’ content you can handle!)
Here are early photos from the official Twins Twitter account of the uniform/logo unveiling at the IDS Tower today. This is the Twins press release describing all the changes for 2010. Also, the pro shop online is already updated to start ordering the new jerseys.
My initial thoughts is that I really like the alternate home jerseys. It’s like straight out of 1965 with Harmon Killebrew and Tony Oliva. These white pinstripe uni’s will be worn on Saturday home games as well as the Target Field Home Opener on April 12.
I’m not sure if I’m thrilled about the away uniform yet. It kind of feels like the Washington Nationals current away uniform, but I guess if we’re going retro it should echo similarities to the Nationals. I am happy about the change to the TC cap with the red bill for the away games (see Scott Baker above). The Twins will no longer wear the cap with the plain “M” on it.
The above two pictures are from the Twins pro shop online. You can already get your gear for Target Field today!
What are you initial thoughts on the uniforms? Leave you comment in the comments section.
If this doesn’t get you excited for the season I don’t know what does!
The Minnesota Twins will take on their first Divisional opponent tonight, the Chicago White Sox, at U.S. Cellular field. The Twins will send knuckleballer R.A. Dickey to the hill. He will face Jose Contreras, who will get the nod for the Sox. Contreras is 4-3 against the Twins with a 4.13 ERA (MLB.com). The spotlight will be on former White Sox and current Twins 3rd baseman, Joe Crede. I expect Joe to get a warm welcome from the Chicago crowd, although who knows how fans will receive a former favorite’s departure to a division rival. Either way, it is a big weekend for Crede. Hopefully, some familiarity with the ballpark and atmosphere can give Crede some much needed confidence.
Crede struggled a little bit at the plate in the opening series against the Mariners at the Dome this past week. I still have high hopes for Crede, as it is very apparent he adds a lot defensively to the Twins. I think once he finds his swagger at the plate, he could be dangerous. In other news, Scott Baker will make the start for Class A Fort Meyers tonight. If all goes well, he could be back in the rotation next week and pitching against the Blue Jays Wednesday at the Dome (MLB.com).
Look for Brian Buscher to get some time at 3rd for the Twins. I think he will have an impact on the Twins success this series.
3 Comments to Read 
I’m not sure if I’m thrilled about the away uniform yet. It kind of feels like the Washington Nationals current away uniform, but I guess if we’re going retro it should echo similarities to the Nationals. I am happy about the change to the TC cap with the red bill for the away games (see Scott Baker above). The Twins will no longer wear the cap with the plain “M” on it.
The above two pictures are from the Twins pro shop online. You can already get your gear for Target Field today!
