Posted by John on July 15, 2010 under John | 
5 Comments to Read
After a rather boring All-Star break the Twins are back at it to start the second half of the season. John Meyer, the Twins MVB, has an audio version of the series preview. Take a listen!
Posted by andrew on June 30, 2010 under Andrew | 3 Comments to Read
After a satisfying series victory over the divisional rival Detroit Tigers, the Twins will end their homestand with a four-game set against the Tampa Bay Rays.
Tampa Bay started the season off on an excellent note, perching themselves atop the American League East while the Yankees and Red Sox tried to re-group. Now, though, the Rays have struggled to maintain their pitching prowess, and have slipped in the standings.
Still one of the best teams in baseball, though, the Rays will be trying to accomplish the same thing as the Twins during this series: closing the door on a rotten June in an attempt to get back on track in July.
Game One – Jeff Niemann (6-2, 2.72) vs. Carl Pavano (9-6, 3.33)
Niemann, 27, was a major factor into Tampa Bay’s incredible start to the season, posting a 2.38 ERA through the month of May. Like his team, though, Niemann took a step back in June. This step back has been minimal, but could be the start of a major regression.
Despite coming off two successful starts against National League squads, Niemann is a classic example of a pitcher with artificially impressive stats. With an extremely low BABIP, a low line drive percentage, and a very high strand rate, it’s not a question of whether or not Niemann will regress; it’s a question of when.
While he’s certainly not as good of a pitcher as his stats suggest, Niemann may not return to earth for quite a while. The longer he keeps up this façade, though, the harder his fall will be.
Pavano’s success, meanwhile, appears to be more a result of ability. Although he has the benefit of a low BABIP and high strand rate, Pavano hasn’t given up any fewer line drives than is usual for the 34-year old. His overall talent level is probably worse than his current 3.33 ERA, but to expect a 4.00 ERA on the season would be fair.
Though not the case for most Twins, the month of June has been extremely friendly to Pavano. Coming off two consecutive complete games, Pavano has an ERA of 2.25 through 40 June innings. Pavano (and teammate Francisco Liriano) have been paramount to Minnesota’s ability to avoid a free-fall this month.
Both BJ Upton and Carl Crawford have dealt with minor bumps and buises these past few days, and they may miss a game or two during this series.
Game Two – David Price (11-3, 2.44) vs. Scott Baker (4-7, 4.97)
A few weeks ago, David Price was in the same boat as Niemann; a lucky pitcher who would likely plummet back to a more realistic realm. Instead of regressing, though, Price seems to be finally tapping into his incredible potential.
Price, 24, has marginal success last year with basically two pitches: a four-seam fastball and a slider. This season Price has introduced two new pitches: a curveball and a two-seam fastball. With the ability to better deceive opposing batters, Price has had great success in 2010. His ERA won’t stay below 2.50 for too long, and he won’t be able to strand nearly as many runners as he is now, but Price, the first overall pick in the 2007 draft, has started to realize his potential. Which should frighten batters across the American League.
Baker has been one of the most disappointing players for Minnesota this season. A career 4.36 ERA pitcher, Baker’s near-5.00 ERA this season has angered many fans. Looking at the stats, though, shows that Baker has BABIP slightly higher than is usual for the right-hander, and that more fly balls than usual are ending up as home runs. Both of these will likely regress eventually, though, Minnesota fans could be treated to a start along the lines of Baker’s most recent.
Game Three – Wade Davis (5-9, 4.68) vs. Francisco Liriano (6-6, 3.47)
When looking at opposing pitchers in these series previews, I usually make sure to mention whether or not that pitcher has had “luck” on their side. In Davis’ case, though, his poor stats are simply because he hasn’t pitched very well.
Whether his issues are mental or mechanical isn’t necessarily known, but he has garned far fewer swinging strikes than in the past. This lack of deception has greatly hurt his stats, and Price could be replaced by top prospect Jeremy Hellickson very soon.
Liriano has been one of the best pitchers in the American League this season, and “luck” hasn’t played too big a factor in his success. He will give up more home runs per fly ball than he is now, but all signs point back to the biggest reason for Liriano’s success: his improved slider.
Game Four – James Shields (6-8, 4.76) vs. Nick Blackburn (7-5, 6.02)
On the face of things, it appears that Shields has been unimpressive this season. When trying to root out the reason for this mediocrity, though, I can’t find any glaring abnormalities. Most of his batted-ball and plate discipline stats have remained the same from years past, as Shields is still inducing plenty of ground balls and getting ahead in the count at a very impressive clip.
So why is the ground-ball pitcher struggling? For one, his BABIP is slightly higher, but something intangible is also a likely culprit. In any case, Shields hasn’t been very effective this season, and there is no reason to believe that his mediocrity will end against the Twins.
Blackburn has also struggled to get batters out this year, but we can pinpoint exactly what is ailing the 28-year old righty: He just isn’t very good. He is dead-last in the league in strikeouts per nine innings, and when he throws a pitch in the strike zone, opposing batters make contact an astounding 96.6 percent of the time, which is also tops in the league.
Marginally successful for the past few years, Blackburn relied upon his extremely accurate arm to paint the corners of the plate and walk very few opposing batters. This year, however, it appears the league knows that most of Blackburn’s pitches are hittable.
Posted by John on June 28, 2010 under John | Read the First Comment
My thoughts on the start of a big series tonight at Target Field. I’ll be at the stadium in section 219 if you want to stop by and say hello.
Posted by John on June 25, 2010 under John | Read the First Comment
Posted by Dan on June 11, 2010 under Dan | 4 Comments to Read
When I wrote the scorecard notes for this series a few days ago it looked like it was going to be a battle of the hot visitors striking at a Twins squad that’s reeling a little bit. Now that the series has arrived, it’s quite the opposite. The Braves enter the series having split back-to-back series against the Dodgers and Diamondbacks; splitting with the Dodgers is certainly nothing to sniff at, but they should have done better against the Diamondbacks. Still, the Braves have been at their best when people count them out.
The Braves ended April with a nine-game losing streak and a 9-14 record that had many observers looking past them for other contenders in the National League East. Perhaps the diminished expectations were good for the team, as they quietly played well in May, going 15-8, and ended the month just 1.5 games behind the first place Phillies. However, they’ve done most of the damage at home, where they boast a 13-6 record compared to just 11-16 on the road. Target Field sits about 1100 miles northwest of the Braves’ home in Atlanta, which bodes well for the Twins’ success.
Rookie slugger Jason Heyward has been something of a bellwether for the Braves this season. He hit .298/.411/.617 with four home runs and 16 RBI over the first 13 games of the season and the Braves went 8-5. During the Braves’ nine-game slide, Heyward hit .125/.276/.250 with one home run and just one RBI, but over the month of May, he hit .338/.465/.618 with three home runs and 16 RBI.
A good sign for the Twins is that Heyward is scuffling a little bit. Over his last 10 games, the rookie is hitting .195/.353/.220 with 0 HR and 4 RBI, well below his season line of .272/.398/.505. Still, his slumps haven’t been prolonged and he could break out again at any time.
Game One
Tim Hudson has been outstanding for the Braves this year, bouncing back after an injury plagued 2009 campaign saw him make just seven starts. He’s been the Braves’ best starter this year, boasting an ERA of 2.44 and a WHIP of 1.18. Because of his very low strikeout rate, just 4 K/9, the Twins will have their chances to put balls in play and make the Braves’ defense work. Given that this is their first trip to Target Field, the Twins will have a definite homefield advantage in this game. Jim Thome has had good success against Hudson over their careers; he’s 9-for-16 with four home runs and a double off of Hudson.
After three uneven starts against Baltimore, New York, and Boston, Francisco Liriano looks like he’s back in form for the Twins. He’s had three consecutive strong starts, though he’s won just one of the games for reasons beyond his control, and has been tough on hitters both home and away. Right handers are hitting Liriano better than lefties, due in no small part to the action of Liriano’s deadly slider, but no one is hitting particularly well against him. None of the Braves has more than 6 ABs against Liriano, so past records are pretty useless. It’ll be tabula rasa all the way around at Target Field.
Game Two
Things I am sure of: gravity, France won’t win the World Cup, and game two will feature a ton of balls in play.
Both starters, Nick Blackburn and Derek Lowe, are at their best when they are inducing weak contact. Of course, pitchers can’t always control what kind of contact they induce, so look for a lot of hits and a fair number of runs for both teams. Which pitcher will show up with good stuff, or stuff good enough to win, is something of a crapshoot.
Lowe was on a run of five good starts before getting shelled by Arizona in his last outing to the tune of seven earned runs in just four innings of work. Blackburn hasn’t gotten out of the fourth inning in either of his last two starts, but has allowed a combined 20 hits. He’s been better at Target Field than away from it, but I fear that his May success was little more than a mirage.
Game Three
If game two was a battle of two starters on a questionable run, game three is the exact opposite. Kris Medlin has stepped out of the Braves’ bullpen and given them solid starts in Jair Jurrjens’ place. His start against the Diamondbacks was the first that was anything less than quality, but the fact that he’s been so productive is certainly part of the reason that the Braves have risen to the top of the NL East.
Kevin Slowey seems to have gotten over whatever was keeping him from pitching out of the sixth inning as he’s gone seven innings in back-to-back starts, while surrendering a total of one run. He’s gotten back to what he’s best at, namely, limiting walks and keeping hitter’s off balance. He, like Denard Span, is much better at home, so this should be another chance for him to extend his string of good starts.
The last time the Twins and Braves me, the Twins took swept the Bravos over three games, but that was about three years and a stadium ago. It’ll be a tough series, but I like the Twins to win tonight and Sunday, while losing to Derek Lowe on Saturday.
Posted by Dan on May 14, 2010 under Dan | 4 Comments to Read
There’s a lot of hyperbole circulating about this weekend’s series against the Yankee. I agree that it’s a big deal, but it’s no bigger than any other series against a potential playoff opponent. Yes, the Yankees dominated the Twins last year, and yes, the Twins typically don’t play well in the Bronx. But to borrow a phrase from every stock brokerage commercial ever: Past performance does not guarantee future results.
The Twins will miss C.C. Sabathia, who pitched Thursday in a loss, and likely Phil Hughes, which gives them an advantage in this series. Hughes could pop up in Game Three, but I doubt it, more on this later.
The Yanks are a little out of sorts right now. The rainout and subsequent doubleheader knocked their rotation out of whack, mitigated somewhat by the return of Andy Pettitte. Injuries have hit them early this season, with Curtis Granderson and Nick Johnson on the shelf and Jorge Posada and Robbie Cano playing a little dinged up.
They’ve gotten solid contributions from Brett Gardner and Francisco Cervelli, but the fact remains that they aren’t the Yankees team of last year’s second half that could simply outpitch, outhit, and outrun an opponent. They may yet get there, but they are beatable right now, as Detroit showed by taking three of four from the Bronx bombers and shutting them out twice.
Game One pits two pitchers coming off of opposite starts.
Scott Baker bounced back from two bad starts to give the Twins two really good ones in their last homestand. He’s limiting his home runs allowed, which is a huge key to his success, and if he can keep his walks down—as he did in his last start against the Orioles—he’s likely to give the Twins another solid start. Mark Teixeira is one of Baker’s great nemeses as he’s gone 4-for-7 with a home run against him. Not a large sample, to be sure, but a matchup that’s worth watching.
A.J. Burnett was sailing to open the season, including back-to-back shut down starts against the Orioles before turning in a horrendous effort against the Red Sox last Sunday. He’s not striking out as many hitters as he has in the past—his K/9 is down to 6.4 from a career average of 8.3—but is still having good success forcing hitters to put the ball in play. Joe Mauer, Delmon Young, and Justin Morneau have all had reasonably good success against the righty over their careers, but none has more than 20 ABs against him. By comparison, Jim Thome has 30 career ABs against Burnett and has stuck out in 11 of them.
Game Two shapes up to be toughest game of the series for both teams, one which could easily be decided by one bad pitch by either starter.
Francisco Liriano had the best bad start I’ve seen in a long time his last time out. Yeah, he allowed 10 hits and five runs over six innings, but if three of those balls were hard-hit, I missed one. It was “Death by 1000 Cuts” or “What the 2002-2008 Twins Were Hated For”. It was his worst start of the year, but unless that happens again, I won’t be too concerned. These things happen to everyone, even the best aren’t immune. It’s basically not worth talking about the Yankees’ hitters versus Liriano over the course of their career since he’s a fundamentally different pitcher than he was before, but Marcus Thames is 4-for-9 with three home runs against him.
Andy Pettitte wasn’t a lock to make this start after missing his last time through the rotation with elbow soreness, but he’s back, due in no small part to the rotation jumble the Yankees face after their doubleheader. Pettitte has been really good this season, giving up more than two runs in a start just once so far and allowing just one home run in 34 innings of work. If he’s on his game, he’ll force the Twins to be very efficient in their offense, something they haven’t really done this season. Of the seven Twins with 10 or more ABs against Pettitte, five have batting averages over .350, though he’s allowed just two home runs to the current Twins lineup. The Twins should put a decent number of runners on against Pettitte, but their ability to get the decisive hit when they need it will determine whether or not they can give Pettitte his first loss of 2010.
Game Three would have been a much rougher draw for the Twins had the Yankees remained on their normal rotation, as they would have faced the red-hot Phil Hughes rather than Sergio Mitre.
Since returning from a family emergency, Nick Blackburn has put together back-to-back quality starts. He shut down the Orioles in his most recent start and held the Tigers more or less in check in the start immediately preceding that. Blackburn drew a lot of flak early in the season for not pitching well at all after signing his new contract this offseason, but he is the same pitcher who threw nine consecutive quality starts in the middle of last season. Yes, he’s the Twins fourth or fifth best starter, but he’s entirely capable of turning in a line of really solid performances. He was as good as anyone in the Orioles series, but with the big bats of the Yankees in their matchbox of a park, I’m a little concerned about him in this start. Teixeira is 6-for-6 with a bomb lifetime against Blackburn, so…that’s not promising.
Blackburn faces Sergio Mitre, who started in Andy Pettitte’s place last time through the rotation. He gave up three earned runs and one jack in his 4 1/3 innings of work against the Tigers. He generated 10 groundball outs, however, something he’ll look to do again. If the Twins can get into the Yankees’ bullpen early in the series, they may get an extra long look at Mtire, who is not used to pitching more than 3-4 innings.
Something to watch for in all three games is the Yankees’ running game. Gardner is a very quick runner and one who gets pretty good jumps—he’s 16/17 in steals so far this season—and the Twins had some issues with the aggressive running style of the White Sox. The Yankees may try to exploit that flaw early and often, hopefully Mauer and Hudson have gotten their issues addressed. If not, it could be up to the pitchers to keep Gardner and, to a much lesser extent, Jeter off the bases.
Conclusion: It’s a tough call. On paper, I like the Twins’ chances Friday night, but Saturday and Sunday are too close for either team to be a rock-solid lock. Blackburn should be better than Mitre, but Mitre isn’t going to pitch the Yankees out of that game either. The X-factor here is the Yankees’ performance at home, where they are 10-2 this season. I don’t see either team sweeping, but either team could win 2-1. My hunch is that the Yankees give the Twins their second series loss of the season.
Posted by Dan on May 11, 2010 under Dan | 4 Comments to Read
The Pale Hose roll into the Twin Cities Tuesday, and Ozzie Guillen’s favorable tweets aside, there’s really no love lost between these two teams. Save 2005, when the Sox won the World Series, the Twins really ruined the Sox’s best years recently. Gone are Dye and Podsednick, aged are Pierzynski and Konerko—though Paulie is killing the ball right now—and the team has been reduced to rebuilding on the fly.
Granted, I’d rather have Kenny Williams trying to rebuild a team on the fly than almost any other GM in baseball, but it’s not a pretty process and it’s clear to see that it’s fraught with pitfalls.
Alex Rios and Andruw Jones have proved to be prescient additions, and Jake Peavy looks like he’s gotten his feet under him, but even as those pieces fall into place, others are clearly poor fits.
This series comes down to the ability of guys like Juan Pierre, Gordon Beckham, and Alexei Ramirez, none of whom have an OBP over .310 or a batting average over .230, to get on base. The Sox were supposed to be a pitching, defense, and situational-hitting team, but they’ve simply found new sources of power.
It’s pretty emblematic of the Sox’s issues that they have a middle of the road slugging percentage and OPS—18th in baseball for both—but are just 24th in OBP and 29th in batting average. If they hit the ball, they are hitting it hard, but their lineup isn’t doing that from top to bottom. Get past Konerko, Jones, and to a lesser extent Quentin, and it’s pretty clear sailing until they bat next.
Game one pits Freddie Garcia against Kevin Slowey, which certainly would seem to be a matchup that favors the Twins. Garcia has been up and down this season, but definitely solid for a fifth starter. He’s alternated good and bad starts so far this season, and he was lucky-good last time out against the Royals. He allowed 10 hits, but no walks, and the Royals plated just two runs against him in six innings of work.
The key players in this game will be Delmon Young and Michael Cuddyer. Garcia has held lefties to a .186 BAA and a .626 OPS against, but righties have hurt him to the tune of a .347 BAA and a .957 OPS against. Joe Mauer has a .348/.444/.565 line against Garcia, one of the only lefties on the team to boast a positive mark against him.
Slowey has struggled with his pitch counts lately, having made it out of the sixth inning just once this season. He hasn’t pitched the Twins out of any games, but he just hasn’t been good, which is very disappointing. Slowey is always going to give up hits, but he’s walking hitters and getting hit hard, and those aren’t good things.
Slowey is exactly the type of pitcher who should be killing the Sox. He makes opposing hitters swing to get on and if he can force the Sox to do that, the Twins will be in business. If he’s sharp at all, this should be a bounceback start for him, but the true test will be if he can get out of the sixth inning.
I like the Twins to win this one and Slowey to make Juan Pierre look bad…or worse as the case may be.
Game Two will be a tough game for the Twins. John Danks has been the Sox’s best starter, no question about it. He’s yet to allow more than two runs in a start and has been pitching deep into games, which limits opposing teams’ ability to attack the soft part of the Sox’s bullpen (i.e. anyone besides Romo or Thornton).
I saw Danks’ first start of the season and he was sharp, but the Twins were willing to be aggressive with him, which I think is the wrong approach. He’s a lock to walk a couple, and the Twins should let him do that if he’s going to. Getting the big hit hasn’t been the Twins’ forte this season, but they’ll need to if they’re going to beat Danks.
Cuddyer, who was one of the key figures in game one, is the big man in this one as well. He’s 17-for-33 against with five home runs and four doubles against Danks for an overall line of .515/.543/1.091. The Twins have hit Danks well historically, but Danks hasn’t been this sharp historically, so we’ll see who wins out.
Other than one bad start against the Royals, Carl Pavano has been every bit as good as Danks, but has become the very definition of a hard-luck loser. Pavano lost both of his last two starts despite giving up just two earned runs in eight innings both times. I’ve got a sick feeling in the pit of my stomach that Pavano is going to be sharp in a loss for the third straight time.
The Sox are playing a lot better than they were when the season started, and with Danks on the mound, I like their chances to steal one. This series has a split written all over it. It’s a quick one, no doubt, and I’ve got to say, I’m with John Malkovich on this one.
Posted by Dan on April 23, 2010 under Dan | 3 Comments to Read
The Twins opened Target Field in style, winning the first official game to be played there and taking all three series. They finished off the homestand with a 6-3 record, marred only by their inability to sweep Cleveland and Kansas City when they had the chance.
After nine at home, the Twins head out on a tour-de-AL-Central with three games each in KC, Detroit and Cleveland, including a stop on ESPN’s Wednesday Night Baseball in Detroit.
Before they get to that series, which will pit the Twins against the only AL Central team they haven’t faced yet this year, the Twins find themselves against a very familiar opponent.
The Royals will toss Luke Hochevar and Gil Meche in this series, just as they did over the weekend, but the Twins will dodge Zack Greinke this time around. Yes, they roughed him up when they faced him, but he’s still a front-line starter and looked much better in his last start against the Blue Jays; avoiding him is a good thing.
Game One:
When last I did a preview of a Twins/Royals game, I noted that as good as Carl Pavano had been so far this year, it was inevitable that he would come back to earth. After 11 hits and seven runs in just 3.1 innings, I think that’s pretty much exactly what happened. Pavano is a vet, I’m not worried about that start bleeding into this one, but it does illustrate the point: There is good Pavano and bad Pavano, one is a great back-end-of-the-rotation starter, the other will make it very difficult for your team to win. If good Pavano shows up, I like the Twins’ chances Friday night, but if he follows his two good starts with two bad ones, the Twins could find themselves with back-to-back losses for the first time this season.
Good or bad, Pavano will square off against Meche, who has just been bad this season. Meche has allowed lefties to hit .417 off of him in his two starts this year, with five of the 10 hits going for extra bases. This bodes well for most of the Twins’ lineup, especially with Joe Mauer expected to be back in the order. Perhaps a poor start from Meche will help Jason Kubel snap out of his early season funk (.180/.317/.320).
Game Two:
Nick Blackburn and Hochevar face off in the battle of “Oh please don’t meltdown” starters. While he didn’t get tagged with the loss, thanks to an Orlando Hudson home run, Blackburn was beaten pretty badly his last time out, as he gave up five runs on seven hits in five innings of work. Blackburn is at his best when he’s generating groundballs, which he really didn’t do in his last outing. So watch for that early, if Blackburn is getting hitters to roll over his pitches, he should go deep into the game and do so effectively.
Hochevar got a little lucky in his last start against the Twins. He put 11 hitters on base in his six innings of work, but gave up just three runs when the Twins were unable to get the critical hit. If he walks five again, he isn’t likely to get so lucky again. With both of these pitchers, it’s hard to guess how the game will go. Could it be a shootout that turns into a battle of bullpens? Sure. Could it be something of a pitchers’ duel? Not Lincecum/Santana, but 2-1 or 3-2 is a definite possibility. As noted last time out, any game that involves the KC bullpen for more than an inning or two is still up for grabs, so getting deep into Hochevar’s pitch count early would be a smart move for Twins hitters.
Game Three:
Kevin Slowey was dominant his last time out, getting 20 of his 24 outs via the groundball or strikeout. Most importantly, he walked no one. His nine strikeouts of a hack-tastic Cleveland order are impressive, and if they’re indicative of what’s to come, so much the better, but Slowey’s skill is in his control. If he comes out on Sunday and goes seven innings with fewer than two walks, that bodes well for the Twins whether or not he also strikes out a bunch. Righties have had a good bit more success against Slowey than port-siders, so watch out for Jose Guillen, who has been hitting everything in sight to start the year.
Slowey will face Brian Bannister, who had a very good start to the year, but fell apart in his last outing against the Blue Jays. Like Slowey, Bannister is looking to force opponents to put balls into play and limit his walks. He allowed twice as many free passes (four) in his last outing as he had in his previous two starts combined and it showed. The Twins are one of the most patient teams in baseball, so if his control fails him, the Twins aren’t going to help him out. That said, if he’s around the zone, the Twins are going to have to punish him on their own. His control isn’t as good as Slowey’s, but it is better than average.
The last series between these two ended with the Twins unable to get the big hit they needed and the Royals getting big hits from Alberto Callaspo. It remains to be seen if this will be a dominant theme for the Twins or if it was a momentary lapse. They will have their chances in this series, none of the Royals pitchers are immune to big innings or early exits, so it will be interesting to see if the Twins can exorcise those demons.
I’m really looking forward to the Slowey/Bannister matchup, which I think the Twins will win, but the other two are a crapshoot to me. There’s not enough data to divine which Pavano, Blackburn, or Hochevar will show up. Even if you write off Meche as not a threat, if his counterpart isn’t substantially better than he is, it could come down to big hits and timely hitting.
Ultimately, the X-factor in this series is the Royals bullpen. They aren’t good at locking down games that should be sure Royals wins and unreliable with close leads, so I’m giving the Twins this series 2-1 headed into their first really big series with Detroit.
Posted by andrew on April 19, 2010 under Andrew | 2 Comments to Read
For the first time in franchise history, the Minnesota Twins have opened the season with four straight series victories. Although they have yet to bring out the brooms, the Twins are certainly on a great start to the 2010 season.
Tomorrow, Minnesota will close out their first home-stand against the division-rival Cleveland Indians. On the face of things, Cleveland appears to be mired in the middle of an extensive rebuilding period, and a look at their starting rotation does little to inspire confidence, but the Indians are a team that could surprise quite a few.
On Tuesday night, Kevin Slowey will take the hill against Justin Masterson in Game One of the series. Masterson was traded from the Boston Red Sox last season in exchange for Victor Martinez, and is one of the more under-rated starting pitchers in the division. A ground-ball pitcher, Masterson features a deadly slider that will miss plenty of bats. In his first 11 innings this season, Masterson has an ERA of 2.45 (an xFIP of 1.91), and 11.45 strikeouts per nine innings.
Game Two will pit Francisco Liriano against lefty David Huff. Huff has thrown 15 innings this season, and has an ERA of 1.80. His slider is an above-average offering, but he certainly wouldn’t be a No. 3 starter in many other places. Game Three of the three-game series will match up Scott Baker and Mitch Talbot. Currently sporting an attractive 3.21 ERA through his first 14 innings, the right-handed Talbot has shown a good, cutting fastball this year.
The Indians certainly have a less-than-stellar starting rotation, and the Twins will be able to score plenty of runs early in the game. Cleveland’s bullpen, however, could be a little tougher to crack. Anchored by Kerry Wood, the Cleveland bullpen consisting of Chris Perez, Tony Sipp, and Joe Smith is relatively solid.
Cleveland’s real strength, though, is their offense. Asdrubal Cabrera, Travis Hafner, and Shin Soo-Choo form a very potent top third of the batting order, and Travis Hafner, Jhonny Peralta, and Russel Branyon are no easy-outs, either. Even the last three hitters in their lineup — Luis Valbuena, Lou Marson, and Michael Brantley — are all projected by Baseball Prospectus to post VORPs over 10.
Slowey had a rough outing the last time he threw from the bump, and he should be ready to redeem himself. Baker and Liriano should perform well, too, but any of these three are prime candidates for another unforeseen implosion like Carl Pavano gave yesterday.
If the Twins can continue to rake opposing pitchers (they have a team OPS of .820; fifth-highest in the league) they should have no problem against the Indians. These could be three high-scoring games, but the key bases-clearing doubles that the Twins have lacked through the first few games should come around eventually.
