The 2009 World Series will mark the first fall classic for this blog, so to honor this event we brought the whole team out to make their bold predictions for the series.
MVB
Winner: Tampa Bay – 5 games MVP: Scott Kazmir
Major League Baseball’s feel good story will be feeling good after a quick 5 game series. The Rays not only represent the superior American League, but they had to battle a great Red Sox club through 7 games as
well as prove over the course of 162 games that they were for real in the toughest division in baseball despite having a meager payroll.
Great to see former Twins Matt Garza, Jason Bartlett, and Grant Balfour all play key roles for this young club. The star of this series though is the franchise leader in wins, Scott Kazmir. Kazmir pitches 2 gems to win the MVP. Upton and Longoria both hit 3 homeruns each.
Brett Werner
Winner: Tampa Bay – 6 gamesMVP: BJ Upton
Just like the Twins have Mauer as a great batter at an otherwise weak batting position, the Phillies have Utley and J-Ro at weak batting positions in the field (to go with Burrell and Howard, not to mention Victorino who is having a great postseason). This gives them a dramatic advantage against other NL teams.
But the Rays are no NL team: they have a stronger overall bullpen than Philadelphia (who have Lidge et rien) even if the closer position may be falling to Price in the WS. And they have as good or better hitters at nearly every position, guys who can get to anyone except maybe Hamels. I give the Rays’ starters a big edge once you get past the Phillies’ ace.
The Phillies are better rested, but obviously that didn’t help last year’s Rockies. Two off days is more than enough for the Rays to recover.
The Rays have been on a run all year, have been on the verge of losing it for most of the last month or two, and they haven’t yet. I don’t think they lose it now.
Mark Werner
Winner: Tampa Bay – 5 gamesMVP: James Shields
The Phillies may have a strong, bopping offense but, if their inter-league games are any preview, they will struggle against the Rays rotation. Although it is a small sample size, the Phillies batted just .220 against the American League this year for an OPS of .682. The Phillies lost every series against AL teams, finishing 4-11. On the flip side, the Rays were 12-6 against the NL. While the Phillies were busy getting shut-out by the Rangers, the Rays were sweeping the Cubs.
Like the Rockies last year who had a payroll 66% below league average, the Rays arrive at the final stage having a payroll 50% below major league average–and one fifth the size of the long-idle, much-maligned Yankees. Unlike the Rockies, the Rays will prevail, taking the series in 5 games. Where the Rockies were overdependent on their thin-air hitting, the Rays have a sturdier foundation in their pitching: a young rotation and an experienced bullpen capped by a talented rising star in Price.
In stark contrast to the Twins, the Phillies slug 40 points higher against LHP. Unfortunately, the Rays rotation features just one lefty in Kazmir. Righties Shields and Garza will combine for three wins. Your World Series MVP: James Shields (and not the semi-transient 19th century senator from Minnesota)
DY21
Winner: Tampa Bay – 7 games MVP: Evan Longoria
As college basketball analyst Dickie V says, “They got the big M.O. baby!” M.O. referring to momentum, and its ironic Dick Vitale is arguably the biggest Tampa Bay fan on this planet. Therefore I gotta say the Rays win this series in 7 games. The World Series MVP goes to boy wonder Evan Longoria.
PS. Is anybody else sick of EVERY ANALYST saying the key part to the Delmon for Garza trade was Jason Bartlett because he “shores up the Tampa defense?” He is terrible at short! He led all AL ss in errors for the Twins in 2007, and seems to make errors in every other game in the playoffs! I just don’t get it, but it is nice to see two former Twins playing key roles in the playoffs.
Dain TePoel
Winner: Philadelphia – 7 gamesMVP: Cole Hamels
I hate to say it, but I want to be the guy who takes a chance on the Underdog in this situation….But really, the Phillies? World Series Champs? They haven’t played a game in a long time, especially by Wednesday.
Hmm…I’ll roll with it.
Feel free to leave your predictions for series winner and MVP in the comments section.
Wow, I just got done watching an amazing game 7 of the ALCS and get to see the Tampa Bay Rays punch their ticket to the World Series. It’s tough not to like a team like Tampa, but it is hard to watch Matt Garza win the series MVP and wonder where the Twins would have been with him in the rotation and not Livan Hernandez. Here’s to hoping Delmon continues to improve! Look for a MVB World Series Preview before Wednesday’s game 1. Until then, the summary, the final installment of Brett’s Offseason Guide. He’ll look at the nine scenarios he described yesterday and try to predict what may happen. Please leave comments and let Brett know your thoughts to his guide.
Summary
Feel free to offer your own scenarios, and to give feedback on my reasoning here. Personally, if I could choose the scenarios to make the team I want…
Desirability
Scenario #9: Sign Dunn and Hudson, Trade for Beltre
Scenario #7: Sign Hudson, Trade for Beltre
Scenario #3: Pursue Top Young Player (at the cost of SP), maybe Chris Davis
Scenario #6: Sign Hudson and Blake
Scenario #4: Sign Hudson
Scenario #5: Sign Blake
Scenario #1: Do Nothing
Scenario #2: Go For Broke
Scenario #8: Sign Cabrera or someone else I don’t like
Predicted Likelihood:
Scenario #4: Sign Hudson
Scenario #7: Sign Hudson, Trade for Beltre
Scenario #1: Do Nothing
Scenario #6: Sign Hudson and Blake
Scenario #8: Sign Cabrera
Scenario #5: Sign Blake
Scenario #9: Sign Dunn and Hudson, Trade for Beltre
Scenario #3: Pursue Top Young Player (at the cost of SP), maybe Chris Davis
Scenario #2: Go For Broke
After doing these analyses, I would say that adding Hudson is probably our best single improvement, especially given that we can afford to platoon Buscher and Harris one more year if Valencia and/or Hughes can be good MLB hitters at 3B. But if we want to open up a spot in the OF/DH and trade Boof, then Beltre and the Mariners are a good match (but they should give us more than Beltre for Boof + either Kubel or Delmon… in fact, they should give us their #1 or #2 prospect, or a #5-10 prospect in their system and pay half of Beltre’s salary).
Now Part IV is where things really get interesting. Based on CRAP and the Twins offseason riches, Brett creates 9 possible 2009 Twins lineups. Check out and leave your opinions…
Scenarios for the 2008-9 Offseason
For each of these I tried to make it clear about what a 25-man roster would be to start the season. There are combinations of these along with a number of others I didn’t consider (and which are probably much more likely than what I address).
What is important is that the Twins do something to decrease the bottleneck in the outfield and starting pitching positions. They should be looking for a RHBs who can hit LHP, who can protect Morneau (and still hit RHP), who play SS or 3B, and play good defense. If they don’t improve their numbers against LHP and their slugging, they are unlikely to do as well in 2009 as 2008 (with a chance of injury to a key SP, Mauer, or Morneau), not to mention a likely drop in average with RISP.
We had a good team in 2008, and while we might not be improving dramatically for 2009, we will at least not have Livan starting every 5th game. In other words, we’ll have a healthy Liriano, Cuddyer, and Neshek to start the season. If all of them play as well as they could (Neshek and Cuddyer like 2006, 2007, Liriano like 2006), and everyone else plays as well as in 2008, we could easily compete for the ALC (even if, as Gleeman says, 89 wins gets us 3rd in the ALC).
Trade Perkins, Kubel, Humber, Young, Boof, and Pridie for Beltre and Hardy, and sign Dunn. This raises our payroll significantly, but not outside what the team can handle (especially given the savings from the last couple years), and we improve our lineup enough that teams would fear us. A lot. So could we get both Hardy and Beltre for the players listed above, and what would our team look like if we did?
I would try to trade Young and/or Boof (and prospect/Humber) to the Mariners for Beltre. I’m guessing they would jump on Delmon (a high-upside OF, whose age and OPS hint at Delmon producing like Beltre over his career, which could make this trade a mistake for the Twins). We’d probably be able to get another player thrown in if we gave them Delmon, and certainly a good one if we gave them both Boof and Young. Summary: Young + Humber for Beltre OR Young + Boof for Beltre and SP prospect.
Then I would try to trade Perkins and Humber (and maybe Kubel) to Milwaukee for Hardy. They get an MLB SP (Perkins is young, cheap, and did pretty well for a rookie, what they want) and they could get a corner OF with a lot of power from the left side in case they trade Prince (or a trade chip with another AL team who wants a DH/OF since Hart and Braun fill their corner OF pretty well). In fact, we might be able to get Milwaukee to make the trade for Perkins (or Blackburn) straight up or with low-level prospects included (a safety measure in all trades in case the centerpieces don’t pan out). Summary: (2A) Perkins + Humber for Hardy OR (2B) Perkins + Kubel for Hardy and high-level prospect OR (2C) Blackburn + Robertson + Humber + Kubel + Parmelee for Hardy + Prince. Then Prince could be our 40 HR-hitting DH, and we wouldn’t need to worry about getting Dunn.
So yes, I think that the trading part is do-able. I think the Twins have already improved their lineup immensely with two established RHBs rather than Delmon and Kubel. If we didn’t do the crazy trade involving Hardy and Prince, I’d think about signing Dunn (remember this scenario is going for broke). Dunn would help a ton (especially if we do trade Kubel). If we are not including Kubel in the Milwaukee deal, then the need for Dunn is much lower. But if possible, I would trade Kubel and sign Dunn. The other nice thing about this scenario is that we keep Beltre for one year, and then we have Valencia/Hughes ready for 3B in 2010, and we get the 2 (or maybe 1) draft picks from Beltre walking. Or we could move Hardy to 3B in favor of another SS. There would be options.
Scenario #3: Pursue Chris Davis (or someone similar: young, high OPS, fills a need).
I may sound like I’m really tied to Chris Davis, and I guess maybe I am. But really, all I’d like is a great young hitter who can play 3B or SS, someone who isn’t just cheap with high upside or a proven veteran middle infielder (we’ll get to that in #4). I’d like a hitter who can play a position the Twins need, and can protect Morneau if he bats fifth in the order (or 3rd with Mauer 2nd and Cuddyer 5th). To get Chris Davis, I expect the Twins would need to trade at least Boof and Perkins/Blackburn, maybe Humber (as another possible MLB pitcher) and Valencia/Hughes (whomever Texas likes better as a future 3B after Blaylock is gone). I think this is a big deal kind of trade, and if we did it, I wouldn’t expect any other deals from us this summer. It would fill our hole at 3B this year and for at least one more before Davis might have to get moved (to OF, DH, 1B). By that time, the non-traded Valencia/Hughes would be at 3B.
Scenario #4: Pursue Veteran Middle Infielder (hopefully Hudson, not Cabrera)
If we decide to pursue a veteran middle infielder as our main offseason move, I do hope it’s Orlando Hudson. He is coming off an injury, but could be a good 2B for us, with some power and good defense (which we need). If we did this, it would mean moving Casilla to SS and keeping Punto around in case Casilla doesn’t adjust well. But this seems like a legitimate and likely scenario.
You can guess what these two would look like. Since they don’t involve trading, it’s pretty clear how they would change our team. I still think the Twins sign Punto in either case as a swing-man. I don’t think they trust Tolbert to be as good as Punto defensively, even though Tolbert would be cheaper.
Scenario #7: Sign Hudson and Trade for Beltre
I actually see this happening because I think the Twins want more year with Hughes/Valencia in the minors. They can afford to (and want to) trade Boof, Humber, and maybe a high-level prospect in order to get a year of Beltre and the draft picks when he leaves via Free Agency.
I actually like how this lineup looks, and if I had to go for an offseason with less going on (and less risk) than scenarios #2 and #3, then I would choose this one. It gives our lineup balance, prevents too much pressure from being put on Morneau/Mauer (who had to carry this team in 2008) and Cuddyer/Young (who were responsible for not giving enough RHB protection to M&M). If we could find a place to trade Kubel, then I’d still like to sign Dunn, but that might be asking too much.
Scenario #8 (this would be awful): Sign Orlando Cabrera
Please don’t do this, Bill Smith. Please. So I’ll end with…
Scenario #9: Trade for Beltre and Sign Dunn and Hudson
Under this scenario, the Twins would trade Boof and Kubel to the Mariners for Beltre and a high-level prospect. They would then sign Hudson to play 2B and Adam Dunn to be the DH and let Gomez, Span, Cuddyer, and Young split time in the outfield. Starting pitching and relief would be pretty similar to most of the above (wouldn’t lose any of the five starters who ended 2008).
I think that lineup would be amazing. And it’s quite possible. It would also allow moving Span to the bottom part of the order if he starts 2009 with a lower OBP. The Dunn part might not be probable, but quite possible. I’d be fine with scenario #7 (without Dunn), but our production would take a hit (but we’d save a lot of money). Possible differences you can mix and match:
Hope you enjoyed reading about CRAP yesterday. (Hopefully I’ll never write that again on the blog) By the way, how about that ALCS game last night? Let’s hope the Rays don’t choke this one away. In Part III, Brett will look at what the Twins have to offer in any offseason moves…
Offseason Riches
OF (Cuddyer, Young, Gomez, Span, Kubel, Pridie, etc.)
Having addressed the offseason targets (both common and those I’d like to see), it’s worth asking what the Twins have as trading potential. Moving ahead with Cuddyer, Young, and Kubel (Corner OF and DH options) and Gomez and Span (CF and corner options) means that at least one of these guys will not play every day. From a defensive standpoint, it would be nice to have both Kubel or Cuddyer off the field every day (like most of the 2008 second half). From an offensive standpoint, it would be nice to have Gomez out of the lineup (unless he becomes more consistent at the numbers he had in May and September with an 800 OPS, which could happen, this along with his best-in-the-majors defense being the two main reasons why the Twins are hesitant to trade him).
Seth is endorsing a rotation where each of the five guys play their OF spot and DH some (no DH for Gomez or Span, no OF for Kubel). I can support that if the Twins don’t do anything in the offseason. But instead, I would try to trade Delmon and Kubel, and pick up Dunn to fill the OF/DH spot. I’m not the only person that likes both Delmon and Kubel (free them, etc.) but still sees the logic in trading either Delmon or Kubel, but I may be the only person who has said to trade both. So far my plan is going to be more expensive than Seth’s, but with more production and likely more defense (by freeing up the outfield for Span and Gomez). We lose the cheapness of Kubel’s arbitration years, and we lose the potential production of Delmon (along with his age: he’s still quite young, but this is why he may be valuable to other teams). When I look at the Twins Minor League prospects, I think that at least one of Morales, Revere, and Hicks (not to mention Parmelee, Tosoni, and Benson) will be able to step up in a few years once Cuddyer’s contract is up and either Gomez or Span hasn’t produced the way we’re now hoping (after all, it’s just the 2008-9 offseason: both have only played about a year in the majors). In other words, the Twins don’t need Delmon and Kubel if they get the production out of Dunn and Cuddyer, and they get the defense (and potential production) out of Span and Gomez. In summary, the Twins outfield is too full, and it only gets worse if the Twins sign a player like Adam Dunn (like I recommend above).
OF/DH available (2 of the three, and Pridie in any case):
Cuddyer (RF/DH)
Kubel (OF/DH)
Delmon (OF)
SP (Baker, Liriano, Slowey, Blackburn, Perkins, Boof)
6 MLB starters return (including Boof, but not even including Humber) and a wealth of SP at AAA/AA (Swarzak, Mulvey, Duensing, Manship, Mullins, possibly Pino)
The table above summarizes some pitching statistics I find useful when evaluating pitching (when the stats are available), stats that SABR-metrics researchers seem to like (xFIP to ERA, etc.). The table indicates to me that the Twins may have a better pitcher in Boof than his trading value is going to indicate. Conversely, Perkins may have more trade value than is likely to be sustainable with his numbers (he just finished his rookie season with a 12-4 record, a 4.41 ERA, and learned to pitch in a good system). Whether or not the Twins recognize it, we have a number of good pitchers available who are probably MLB ready (at least the six in the majors aside from Humber, and including Mulvey). I will say that whoever put Slowey as a comparable pitcher for Mulvey didn’t look at the same things I’m considering. Because Mulvey hasn’t yet pitched in the majors, I have the career minor league (all levels) numbers for the MLB pitchers and Mulvey, just to give you an idea of where they fit.
The Twins tend to focus their drafts on starting pitching and fast/defensive CF. In times like the 2008-9 offseason, the Twins can and should use those starting pitchers as trading potential. The last few years the Twins have brought in 1-2 awful veteran Free Agent starting pitchers, none of whom have worked out well. I don’t think they should need to do that this year with the number of potential starters they have. The question is how many pitchers to trade. They could do zero, stick with the five starters they had at the end of 2008, and hope that both Boof and Humber adjust to roles in the bullpen. They would have available long relief or guys who could switch to starting if anyone got hurt (like Slowey in the last week, which was our first starting pitcher to get injured once the season began: Slowey and Baker had late starts to the season). But this leaves little to no opportunity for the pitchers at AAA to move up, at least on a steady basis, and the Twins have had a lot of success lately when guys started in AAA and moved to the Twins in May or June (see Slowey, Garza, Baker in ’07 or Perkins in ‘08). This usually comes from the veteran Free Agent problem mentioned above (Ponson and Ortiz in ’07, Livan in ’08), but also with younger pitchers missing starts (Liriano, Baker, and Slowey in early ’08). In any case, having a chance for the AAA pitchers to move up is good, whenever it happens.
It seems like the club would like to trade Boof so that he could be a SP somewhere rather than a RP with the Twins. I think we should be open to that if we can get value out of him. Otherwise, as in, if we could get value for Blackburn or Perkins that we can’t for Boof, I’d be fine with trading Blackburn or Perkins, keeping Boof to be our 2009 Livan/Boof (hopefully we give him chances until the end of May like Boof ’08 rather than until the end of July like Livan ’08). This would allow Boof one more chance to prove himself (his fielding independent numbers were as good as Perkins in ’08), and an easy opening for a younger pitcher that could emerge in early 2009 in Rochester. We could then trade Boof midseason after trading the Perkins/Blackburn option in the offseason, maximizing our trade potential. If nothing else, this allows us to call Boof our “innings-eater” for a while (and the innings he eats allows a pitcher at AAA to emerge as in ’07 and ’08).
Beyond that, I try to build my pitching staff for the next few years around Liriano, Baker, and Slowey. I try to buy out at 1-2 years of free agency with each of these guys with a longer-term contract (also avoids arbitration mess), which can backfire if they get injured, but it’s at least as safe of a bet as signing someone like Ponson, Ortiz, or Livan for $5 million for a year.
What this means for players I’d make quite available:
Kubel (OF/DH)
Delmon (OF)
Boof (SP/RP)
Humber (SP/RP)
Blackburn or Perkins (SP)—though probably not both, unless both got me Davis (maybe more)
Pridie (OF)
Slowey, Baker, or Liriano (SP)—only if someone offered me a superstar and then some
One final note: I think it’s important to point out how good Twins players look to other teams. Our free agents and trades end up with player friendly contracts (they get much more money than the Twins would ever offer, and sometimes it works out: Torii and Johan, and other times it doesn’t: Castillo and Silva). Additionally, I think that the Twins lost more Minor League prospects to the draft last year than any other team, which says something about either the Twins minor league system, or about the Twins front office and how they manage the 40-man roster (not protecting the right players). I think that most teams do well to protect their top threatened players, and it’s a question of how many players they can’t protect. In the end, I think this should be an indication to the Twins front office that teams value what the Twins have, and they should use this to their advantage.
Trading Targets (Teams)
Rangers (Great Hitting, Weak Pitching: Target is Chris Davis)
Mariners (In Need of Major Overall: Target is Beltre)
Brewers (In Need of Pitching with loss of Sheets/Sabathia: Target is Hardy)
Free Agent Targets
Adam Dunn (OF/DH)
Orlando Hudson (2B)
Casey Blake (3B)
In Part II of Brett’s Offseason Guide he introduces his personal method of evaluating offseason acquisitions and comparing the gain/loss from player to player. Maybe Bill Smith should pay attention to this…
I’ve been trying to develop a very simple acronym for player evaluation (as a free agent signing, and to a lesser extent a trade). I call it CRAP. Each of these variables can be weighted based on team needs (making it specific to what a team might need at particular positions, or might have as constraints on salary). For instance, the Twins have contract/salary limitations far greater than the Yankees (who are often just operating on the RAP acronym), and while the Twins need a 3B or SS, the Yankees have those already (see A-Rod and Jeter) and would prefer starting pitching.
C = Contract Expectations (this includes both years and salary/year, along with bonuses/options) R = Risk (injury risk is most important, but attitude is key, esp. for Twins: see Dukes or Bradley) A = Age (players peak in their late 20s & often regress afterward, in addition to increasing cost) P = Production (or Performance if you factor in defense—I use OPS as a good indicator here)
So this gives us CRAP, and whether you want to just use pluses and minuses, or positive and negative numbers, or even weights and positive or negative numbers, you can come up with a fair indication of whether your favorite team should sign a particular player. For instance, I was looking at free agents with high HR production in 2008 (on MLBTR), and I rated some hitters using CRAP.
Because all of these players could potentially DH, and the Twins could upgrade at DH (by trading at least one of, and likely two of Delmon, Kubel, Cuddyer, Gomez, or Span), I think all of these players are legitimate Twins for 2009. They range in terms of contract (lengthy and expensive for Mark Teixeira to short and expensive for Bradley given his risk), in terms of risk (Bradley is very risky for both injuries and attitude, and Dunn/Tex is less risky), in terms of age (Manny is getting old, but most are around or just past their likely peak years), and in terms of production (but given that I was just looking at very productive players, they’re quite homogeneous).
So, let’s look again at the Twins trade targets, using CRAP as a starting point. I then offer some additional insight into what a particular player’s presence might mean to the Twins (trading current players to open up spots or acquire players currently under contract, moving players into other positions, etc.)
CRAP = -15
C = +2 (if the Twins could get him for $30 over 3 yrs, but drops fast beyond that)
R = -5 (mostly on attitude rather than on injury—don’t like his attitude at all)
A = -7 (34 years old, a bit much for a starting SS with little chance to play other positions)
P = -5 (not that great on offense, defense is generally pretty good)
Other Notes: It could be that I’m being more harsh on the OC because of his attitude and batting, but if the Twins want someone with Cabrera’s production, why not sign Punto (better OPS in ’08 and as good in ’06, though perhaps not as consistent overall) who is better in the club house and as good at defense. I think this would be a major mistake on the part of Bill Smith, and I wouldn’t think it would be tough for him to see that. It also was very surprising to me that JoeC seemed optimistic and HowardS called him the people’s choice (though Sinker later redeemed himself by looking into Cabrera’s personality). See Furcal note under Hudson.
Adrian Beltre (1 year left on contract 3B) RHB 786 (779 / 806) 784 (704 / 994)
CRAP = +16
C = +5 (one year contract, while expensive is short—caution: see trades below)
R = +2 (little injury risk in one year)
A = 0 (29 years old, but having him for only one year )
P = +9 (great numbers, especially against LHP, and Gold Glove caliber defense)
Other Notes: The nice things about Beltre are he’s a power-hitting RHB with great defense we would only need to have him for a year (at $12million), and it would be a contract year before Free Agency (meaning he should produce, and that we would get draft picks if we lost him, likely as a Type A Free Agent). The difficult thing is that the Mariners will surely require a back of the rotation starter (MLB ready) for him, if not more (for only one year of Beltre). I’m guessing they would trade Beltre for Perkins/Boof/Buscher, but I may be off. If so, I’d do it (unless I could get Chris Davis). I’d guess that Beltre could give Morneau a rest at 1B with better results than Lamb in 2008.
CRAP = +17 (SS) or +13 (3B)
C = +2 (under team control, but in arbitration years, would likely want to give him 4yr contract)
R = +3 (missed most of 2006 with an ankle injury, but solid aside from that)
A = +4 (26 years old)
P = +8 as a SS, or +4 as a 3B
Other Notes: He’s a RHB that can hit HRs and drive in runs. Probably the most important thing about Hardy is that he would be a good SS for another year or two, though may not be quite as good defensively as Everett or Punto, but could easily move to 3B any time and still has enough offensive production that it wouldn’t matter. The same cannot be said for Cabrera. Additionally, though Hardy’s price is starting to increase, he remains a good option from now until the end of his arbitration years, whether we want to buy out any of his free agent years with a contract or not. The downside of Hardy (like Beltre and Davis) is that he will require trades.
CRAP = +4 or +2 depending on contract expectations
C = 0 (if we could get him at $32 over 4 yrs) or -2 (if $40 / 4yrs or $30 / 3yrs)
R = -2 (plays ~140 games/yr except for 2008 when he had season-ending wrist surgery)
A = -2 (31 years old)
P = +8 (good production for a middle IF, and Gold Glove defense)
Other Notes: If we pick Hudson up, it would be for his defense up the middle, along with good offense for a 2B. However, this would mean moving Casilla to SS (possibly to compete with Punto or others), which may work (it is Casilla’s natural position, but not one he has played much lately). The nice thing about Hudson beyond his production and defense is that we do not have to give up any trades for him. I could probably add Rafael Furcal to the list of middle infielders (much better SS option than Orlando Cabrera), but he’ll be out of our price range I think.
CRAP = -1
C = -3 (will be paying him free agent money, but he won’t be expensive for a FA)
R = +5 (seems good for 150 games, has been a Twin before, knows the ALC)
A = -6 (35 years old)
P = +3 (decent production)
Other Notes: I confess to not knowing what to say about Casey Blake except that he’s a good option and likely the kind of signing the Twins would do in the past (maybe slightly better). He is my lowest pick ask a 3B option of those addressed here. However, in a year when 3B options are limited, Casey Blake will have a number of suitors, and he’s a good player. I’d put a maximum offer of 2 years and $18 million and be comfortable with getting him for 2 years and $12million.
Here’s where it gets interesting… Chris Davis (young Rangers 3B) LHB 952 in Minors 880 (866 / 916)
CRAP = +27
C = +10 (cheapest option available, under team control for cheap for a while)
R = +1 (Young, but unknown… if only I were a scout)
A = +9 (23 years old)
P = +7 (still unknown, but if his minor league numbers are any indication, along with his short MLB season, he should be quite productive).
Other Notes: Davis would be the least proven player out of those highlighted here—the youngest, with only 2/3 of a season in the majors. He’s another LHB to go with Mauer and Morneau, but he’s similar in age to Gomez and Delmon, would be cheap and available for a number of years, and has the potential to hit like a superstar (OPS of .952 in minors compares to Mauer’s .830 and Morneau’s .902). Even if he can’t stay at 3B forever and might need to be moved in a year or two to 1B (pushing Morneau to DH), a corner OF (following Cuddyer), or DH (pushing Kubel out of the picture), the Twins have options. The biggest problem is that according to some Rangers fans’ view, Davis is untouchable, which means trading for him would cost the Twins dearly (maybe Blackburn/Perkins, Boof, Duensing, Pridie, Robertson, and Valencia, maybe even a better package, perhaps with both Blackburn and Perkins, and maybe Boof and Valencia). But the good news is that the Twins and Rangers are trading partners made in heaven (Rangers with great and plentiful batting and troublesome pitching, the Twins with great and plentiful pitching and batting in need of a boost).
Adam Dunn (Free Agent Corner OF/DH) LHB 899 (931 / 833) 899 (951 / 773)
CRAP = +13
C = -6 (maybe -7 given he’s a free agent)
R = +7 (quiet, maybe not a vocal leader, but plays 155+ games/year)
A = +2 (29 years old)
P = +10 (out of the options we have to improve the team’s offense, Dunn is by far the best)
Other Notes: Dunn is going to require a contract much bigger than the Twins have given before, at least on par with Morneau and perhaps even more given that he’s a free agent around (or just passing) his prime. Dunn consistently hits 40 HRs (and I do mean consistently) and has 100 Runs Batted In. While he would be another LHB to go with Mauer and Morneau, his splits are good enough that it wouldn’t matter (he’s as good of a hitter as Morneau). He would offer the kind of protection to Morneau that Twins fans could only dream of in 2008. Landing him would likely mean trading Kubel and perhaps Delmon (to open up an OF/DH spot or two), but this could be addressed in other ways. He would likely add $16-18million per year to our payroll for 4-5 years (similar to Morneau). If we could get him for $64 over 4 yrs, he would be a steal I think. I might try for $75 over 5 years. Basically, if the Twins could move him to the DH (and part time OF) spot while keeping the young cheap guys (and Cuddyer) in the outfield, we could have the best of both worlds in production and defense.
Putting these options together, we have to make sure we don’t end up:
Getting Orlando Cabrera (I don’t like him)
Getting both Dunn and Davis (both great hitters, but both LHB, crowding the corners)
Getting both Hudson and Hardy (we should be able to cover one middle IF internally)
Getting Davis and Blake (both 3B) or Davis and Beltre, etc.
CRAP Summary
First of all, what do you think of the CRAP rating system? Is it helpful to you in making decisions about trades and free agents? There are two alternative formulations I’m considering. One is that you use CRAP for free agents (who require contracts) and TRAP for trade targets (where you have to give up players from your system). The second is a way of combining the two to make CRAPT. It is the same as CRAP but adds in T for Trades (players you’d lose to get the target player). In a way, this does even out some of the desirability of trade targets over Free Agents, and it might end up working.
T = Trade Equations (never positive unless you can get rid of another bad contract)
Davis = -9
Hardy = -5
Beltre = -6
Dunn = 0
Hudson = 0
Blake = 0
Cabrera = 0
CRAP Ranking (as done by me, but you should use the system and rank them yourselves):
Chris Davis +27
JJ Hardy +17 (SS) or +13 (3B)
Adrian Beltre +16
Adam Dunn +13
Orlando Hudson +4
Casey Blake -1
Orlando Cabrera -15
CRAPT Ranking
Chris Davis +18
Adam Dunn +13
JJ Hardy +12 (SS) or +8 (3B)
Adrian Beltre +10
Orlando Hudson +4
Casey Blake -1
Orlando Cabrera -15
Just as importantly as thinking of these CRAPT ratings is to think how another team views our guys and their ratings. This is a reason why Cuddyer, who is a good hitter (in ’06 and ’07) with a reputation for good defense (mostly just his arm) is a difficult player for the Twins to trade after we gave him a bigger contract than he was worth (at least so far—if he returns to ’06 levels in ’09, he’ll improve the contract’s worth).
How do your rankings compare? Who else do you include? Where would someone like Manny fit in? I’m guessing he’ll get a big contract over 4-5 years, that he’s an attitude risk (perhaps injury also, though he’s stayed in good health), he’s old, but he can hit. He might work at DH, but I would rather put my money on Adam Dunn.
The following is the first installment of a five part series analyzing the 2009 offseason for the Minnesota Twins. This is another exciting new addition to MVB written by a good friend Brett Werner with help from his brother, Mark Werner. The Werner Brothers (WB) are devoted Twins fans who look at the game in a SABRmetric scope. Brett’s detailed analysis will certainly intrigue.
2008 Recap
To consider some trade options for the Twins in the 2008-9 offseason, I start with the Twins 2008 batters and the OPS numbers (On-Base + Slugging). OPS isn’t a perfect statistic (none are), but it does gauge overall productivity pretty well.
Player (position): Bats / CareerOPS (vs. RHP/LHP Split) 2008
Justin Morneau (1B) LHB 846 (899 / 739) 873 (928 / 778)
Joe Mauer (C) LHB 856 (910 / 744) 864 (826 / 939)
Jason Kubel (DH/OF) LHB 771 (790 / 688) 806 (833 / 704)
Delmon Young (LF) RHB 739 (721 / 790) 741 (720 / 791)
Michael Cuddyer (RF) RHB 785 (772 / 812) 699 (700 / 694)
To be fair, Cuddyer was injured in 2008 so … 2007 789 (759 / 865)
Depending on their positions, players have adjusted expectations or benchmarks for OPS. The players who defend the middle (C, 2B, SS, CF) have lower OPS expectations than those playing the corners or not at all (1B, 3B, LF, RF, DH). A player with an OPS of 850 of higher is usually an All-Star (see Mauer and Morneau), much more so if he plays down the middle. A corner player has slightly higher expectations.
OPS – Middle – Corner/DH
600-650 – Defensive Sub – AAA or retirement
650-700 – Off Year? – 4th OF or worse
700-750 – Good, Solid – Off year? Maybe look elsewhere
750-800 – Very good – Solid
800-850 – All-Star – Very Good
850-higher – Superstar, chance at HoF – Extremely good, likely All-Star
Looking closely at batting strengths and weaknesses, 2008 was a decent year because we had three batters with an OPS over 825 (and Morneau over 925) against RHP, but we also had Mauer hitting LHP at a 939 clip (a reversal of his career split, almost 200 points higher against LHPs and 85 points lower against RHPs). Unlike Morneau who has a large split but still quite good on his off-side, a player whose splits make him very good against RHP and bad against LHP (or the reverse) will usually be a platoon player, pinch hitter, or in the minors. A good example of this is Brian Buscher, who did very well against RHP, but awful against LHP (a reason why the Twins can’t afford to keep him as an everyday 3B (he would at least platoon with Harris).
If you had enough roster spots to keep both Buscher and Harris, to platoon them at 3B, and they both performed somewhere in between their career and 2008 numbers, you’d have a very good 3B situation (if you could split the OPS at 780 / 775 or so). But finding a 3B who can hit in the 775 (760 / 790), splitting this way in hopes of a RHB as the Twins are LHB heavy. But this is what makes 3B a great place to look to improve your roster. Not only can you use one roster spot rather than two, you might be able to improve on these expectations offensively or defensively.
This also brings up the question of defense. Given that the Twins have a particular team pitching style (throw strikes, don’t walk anyone, let them put it in play), the Twins absolutely need to have a stronger than average defense behind their pitchers, especially up the middle, but everywhere. This is why the Adam Everett signing made sense: even if he batted the way people expected him to (which he did), he’d still have been a good choice for our team if his defense had also been as expected (which it wasn’t). His shoulder injury caused a lot of troubles for the Twins middle infield, but if his shoulder was to improve by 2009, I’d definitely give him a shot (especially if we could improve team OPS elsewhere (Everett’s career OPS is 653, which is only MLB quality with amazing defense, which he had).
Finally, it’s worth noting that if Cuddyer could have stayed healthy and batted fifth with an OPS vs. LHPs of 865 (like he did in ’07) or 894 (like ’06) with solid numbers against RHPs, the team would have been in pretty good shape. Similarly, if Delmon had batted with the upside the Twins Front Office was hoping for, the Twins would have again been in good shape. But any team that faced the Twins this year could use LHPs and pitch around Mauer, leaving the Twins with a bottom of the majors lineup. This is one good reason to hope that the Twins can have another strong year in 2009 even if someone else gets hurt or they can’t keep the team batting average with runners in scoring position above .300 or if any of their young pitchers have a sophomore (or junior) slump.
Off-season Targets
Having given a quick update on what the Twins did this year OPS-wise, I move on to offseason targets and possibilities. There are three ways to “acquire” players in the offseason: (1) sign a free agent, (2) make a trade for players, or (and this is why I put “acquire” in scare quotes) (3) promote from the Minor League System. The Twins are set at 1B, C, OF, and likely 2B (if that’s where Casilla ends up). They have utility infielder options (either Punto or Tolbert), a pair of players destined for a trade or platoon duty in the infield (Harris and Buscher), and a few holes. The Twins are lucky to have one of their better hitters at the Catcher position, which gives them a little flexibility for finding other good hitters (they can look in the normal places and build with batting beyond the corner positions).
The Twins have a well-known history of signing weak free agents (won’t even mention them), but Twins fans can safely expect a better free agent signing this year given that the Twins saved money in 2008 (down to $57 million from $71 million in 2007) with a chance for contracts to go as high as $80 or so million in 2009 and beyond (especially with the new ballpark coming online in 2010). I’ll get to how I generally approach offseason targets in a bit, but here are a few of those targets.
Offseason Target Positions: 3B / SS /RP(?)
Offseason Excesses: OF / SP(?)
The following guys are improving in the Minors at 2B, SS, and 3B (allowing for the possibility of Casilla at SS). They may be options for the Twins to “acquire” them (bring them up from the minors out of spring training or during the year). They are also people that should be considered if we are signing free agents or making trades. Do we keep them around as backup plans (see Punto, Buscher, and Casilla for Everett, Lamb, and Harris). Do we try to trade them, or do we release them? Rather than going into detail for the minor leaguers, I’ll just post their OPS numbers in the Minors and send you to Seth’s site for his take on their performances (I follow these things, but not quite as closely as he does). Look for Gleeman and Baseball Prospectus to have prospect lists sometime soon also.
Luke Hughes (3B/2B/CF, RHB): Seth’s #9 Twins Prospect
Career OPS 746
2008 AAA OPS 936
2008 AA OPS 778
Danny Valencia (3B, RHB): Seth’s #4 Twins Prospect
Career OPS 846
2008 AA OPS 920
2008 A+ OPS 819
2008 AZ Fall OPS 488 (in only 20 ABs so far)
Trevor Plouffe (SS, RHB): Seth’s #11 Twins Prospect
Career OPS 699
2008 AAA OPS 712
2008 AA OPS 735
Plouffe doesn’t look like he can bat well enough to play everyday in the Majors. Both Hughes and Valencia have shown some promise somewhere along the way in the minors, but only Valencia appears to be the kind of hitter the Twins need on the left side of the infield. Valencia may be ready in 2009, but is likely a better bet for 2010, which means maybe the Twins should go after a 3B for one year (or stick with the platoon option mentioned above). If we trade for a younger player, we might want to use Valencia as part of the trading equation. The question is: how do the options mentioned to this point stack up against the guys below?
The top five are guys I’ve seen mentioned on other blogs and news sites. My most worrisome moments are when the Star Tribune guys are talking up Orlando Cabrera. I wish that more fans and blogs were talking up the guys I’d like to see the Twin pick up via trade or free agency. My preferred order would be: Chris Davis, Adam Dunn, JJ Hardy, Orlando Hudson, Casey Blake, and Orlando Cabrera. Out of the names on this list, I would be most disappointed if the Twins signed Cabrera given the full package of expected contract, the risk (attitude and injury), his age, and his production/performance.
Come back tomorrow for part II of Brett’s series to hear about potential offseason acquisitions, including Brett’s own developed model to observe potential gain/loss to acquiring new players.
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