There’s a lot of hyperbole circulating about this weekend’s series against the Yankee. I agree that it’s a big deal, but it’s no bigger than any other series against a potential playoff opponent. Yes, the Yankees dominated the Twins last year, and yes, the Twins typically don’t play well in the Bronx. But to borrow a phrase from every stock brokerage commercial ever: Past performance does not guarantee future results.
The Twins will miss C.C. Sabathia, who pitched Thursday in a loss, and likely Phil Hughes, which gives them an advantage in this series. Hughes could pop up in Game Three, but I doubt it, more on this later.
The Yanks are a little out of sorts right now. The rainout and subsequent doubleheader knocked their rotation out of whack, mitigated somewhat by the return of Andy Pettitte. Injuries have hit them early this season, with Curtis Granderson and Nick Johnson on the shelf and Jorge Posada and Robbie Cano playing a little dinged up.
They’ve gotten solid contributions from Brett Gardner and Francisco Cervelli, but the fact remains that they aren’t the Yankees team of last year’s second half that could simply outpitch, outhit, and outrun an opponent. They may yet get there, but they are beatable right now, as Detroit showed by taking three of four from the Bronx bombers and shutting them out twice.
Game One pits two pitchers coming off of opposite starts.
Scott Baker bounced back from two bad starts to give the Twins two really good ones in their last homestand. He’s limiting his home runs allowed, which is a huge key to his success, and if he can keep his walks down—as he did in his last start against the Orioles—he’s likely to give the Twins another solid start. Mark Teixeira is one of Baker’s great nemeses as he’s gone 4-for-7 with a home run against him. Not a large sample, to be sure, but a matchup that’s worth watching.
A.J. Burnett was sailing to open the season, including back-to-back shut down starts against the Orioles before turning in a horrendous effort against the Red Sox last Sunday. He’s not striking out as many hitters as he has in the past—his K/9 is down to 6.4 from a career average of 8.3—but is still having good success forcing hitters to put the ball in play. Joe Mauer, Delmon Young, and Justin Morneau have all had reasonably good success against the righty over their careers, but none has more than 20 ABs against him. By comparison, Jim Thome has 30 career ABs against Burnett and has stuck out in 11 of them.
Game Two shapes up to be toughest game of the series for both teams, one which could easily be decided by one bad pitch by either starter.
Francisco Liriano had the best bad start I’ve seen in a long time his last time out. Yeah, he allowed 10 hits and five runs over six innings, but if three of those balls were hard-hit, I missed one. It was “Death by 1000 Cuts” or “What the 2002-2008 Twins Were Hated For”. It was his worst start of the year, but unless that happens again, I won’t be too concerned. These things happen to everyone, even the best aren’t immune. It’s basically not worth talking about the Yankees’ hitters versus Liriano over the course of their career since he’s a fundamentally different pitcher than he was before, but Marcus Thames is 4-for-9 with three home runs against him.
Andy Pettitte wasn’t a lock to make this start after missing his last time through the rotation with elbow soreness, but he’s back, due in no small part to the rotation jumble the Yankees face after their doubleheader. Pettitte has been really good this season, giving up more than two runs in a start just once so far and allowing just one home run in 34 innings of work. If he’s on his game, he’ll force the Twins to be very efficient in their offense, something they haven’t really done this season. Of the seven Twins with 10 or more ABs against Pettitte, five have batting averages over .350, though he’s allowed just two home runs to the current Twins lineup. The Twins should put a decent number of runners on against Pettitte, but their ability to get the decisive hit when they need it will determine whether or not they can give Pettitte his first loss of 2010.
Game Three would have been a much rougher draw for the Twins had the Yankees remained on their normal rotation, as they would have faced the red-hot Phil Hughes rather than Sergio Mitre.
Since returning from a family emergency, Nick Blackburn has put together back-to-back quality starts. He shut down the Orioles in his most recent start and held the Tigers more or less in check in the start immediately preceding that. Blackburn drew a lot of flak early in the season for not pitching well at all after signing his new contract this offseason, but he is the same pitcher who threw nine consecutive quality starts in the middle of last season. Yes, he’s the Twins fourth or fifth best starter, but he’s entirely capable of turning in a line of really solid performances. He was as good as anyone in the Orioles series, but with the big bats of the Yankees in their matchbox of a park, I’m a little concerned about him in this start. Teixeira is 6-for-6 with a bomb lifetime against Blackburn, so…that’s not promising.
Blackburn faces Sergio Mitre, who started in Andy Pettitte’s place last time through the rotation. He gave up three earned runs and one jack in his 4 1/3 innings of work against the Tigers. He generated 10 groundball outs, however, something he’ll look to do again. If the Twins can get into the Yankees’ bullpen early in the series, they may get an extra long look at Mtire, who is not used to pitching more than 3-4 innings.
Something to watch for in all three games is the Yankees’ running game. Gardner is a very quick runner and one who gets pretty good jumps—he’s 16/17 in steals so far this season—and the Twins had some issues with the aggressive running style of the White Sox. The Yankees may try to exploit that flaw early and often, hopefully Mauer and Hudson have gotten their issues addressed. If not, it could be up to the pitchers to keep Gardner and, to a much lesser extent, Jeter off the bases.
Conclusion: It’s a tough call. On paper, I like the Twins’ chances Friday night, but Saturday and Sunday are too close for either team to be a rock-solid lock. Blackburn should be better than Mitre, but Mitre isn’t going to pitch the Yankees out of that game either. The X-factor here is the Yankees’ performance at home, where they are 10-2 this season. I don’t see either team sweeping, but either team could win 2-1. My hunch is that the Yankees give the Twins their second series loss of the season.
I can’t remember the last time any team, not just the Twins, but any team became victims of three walk-off losses in a row. The old Yankees Stadium was never very friendly to the Minnesota Twins, but new Yankee Stadium already has plenty of bad memories for the Twins.
Today’s blow came off the bat of Johnny Damon in the bottom of the 10th inning. Damon’s homerun heroics gave the Yankees a 3-2 win and the Twins’ their third defeat in a row.
For six innings starters, Kevin Slowey and AJ Burnett, were both pitching shutouts and scattering just six hits between the two clubs. In the top of the 7th inning Matt Tolbert’s RBI single snapped the Twins’ staggering 0-21 slump with runners in scoring position. After a pair of wild pitches and a base hit the Twins were able to take a 2-0 lead. Despite Slowey’s eight strikeouts the Yankees pounced right back with two runs of their own in the bottom of the 7th including an Alex Rodriguez solo homerun.
Both sides squandered multiple opportunities to take the lead back including a game saving play by Joe Mauer. After a bizarre deflected hit off of Jose Mijares’ glove, Mauer grabbed the ball and faked a throw to 1st base. At the same time Yankee speedster, Brett Gardner, tried to sneak behind Mauer and get to homeplate. Roughly 20 feet from home Mauer and Gardner had a race to the base with a fully extended, diving Mauer making the tag on Gardner for the out. Although it would not lead to a Twins victory, the play was an incredible and showcased the amazing athleticism of the Twins All-Star.
The first three games of this series have showcased very strong outings from Twins starters, yet the bullpen is getting overworked and outmatched when needed. All three of these losses have been heart-breakers for the Twins, but it must be noted that this club has a lot of heart and fight in them. Every day this Twins team will come out ready to battle despite what happened the night before. Let’s hope the Twins can grab one victory in New York before another tough road series in Chicago.
*Stat Update* Thanks to Kelly Thesier of MLB.com I learned the last time the Twins lost three straight games all in walk-off fashion was August 19-21, 1973. Needless to say… I wasn’t alive.
The Twins showed some grit, some heart, and some fight this week taking two of three against the New York Yankees. Yeah, the Twins were playing at home and yeah, the Yanks are struggling right now, but… I’m still taking this series as a positive note.
Typically when the Twins play the Yankees they look like Little Leaguers playing against the pros, but in all three of these games (even the loss) the Twins were forced to come back from a deficit, grind out runs across the plate, and play tight ballgames.
Twins playoff teams of the past have had good records, play solid baseball, and seem to have the right makeup. However, when the playoff role around we have poor at bats, shaky starting pitching, and no clutch hitting. Let’s hope this series could be a preview to early October!
I leave you with this incredibly random video. Can’t believe I missed this, but happened a few weeks ago. Watch the bat in the upper left corner… incredible!
Hi Twins fans, I apologize for the post delay as this weekend was a travel weekend. Nonetheless, the Twins continue to make news this offseason in what is becoming the busiest Twins’ offseason I can remember.
Friday afternoon, the day after the Twins signed SS Adam Everett from the Houston Astros, they again reached to the Houston organization and signed free agent third baseman Mike Lamb. The left side of the 2007 Astro’s infield has now essentially become the left side of the 2008 Twins’ infield. Lamb is a traditional Twins signing as he comes with some questions marks at an affordable price tag, but is full of potential. Lamb has never had the opportunity to play full time as a starter and he should get that chance to earn the role for the Twins come spring training. In a backup/platoon role last year, Lamb hit .289 with 11 homeruns and 40 RBIs. Lamb is a left handed hitter, 32 years old, with a career batting average of .281, and a solid (but not great) defensive glove.
Based on what I’ve read, sources say Lamb and Everett will take over the left side of the infield with newly acquired Brendan Harris defending 2nd base. This will put Nick Punto back into his former utility role. This infield along with 1B Justin Morneau will be much better offensively then last years squad and I believe Nick Punto needs to be a utility player and not an everyday starter.
In Santana news, it has been reported that the New York Yankees jumped back into trade discussions with the Twins regarding the Twins ace. The Yankees had set a deadline during the winter meetings to trade for Santana and when that deadline passed they claimed to be “done”. Not surprising after the Yankees said they were never going to sign A-Rod after he opted out of his contract…and look what happened. With the trade of Oakland A’s ace Dan Haren to the Arizona Diamondbacks last Friday, the Yankees’ options for acquiring a frontline starter are diminishing which may make them more desperate to give up players for Santana.
The winter meetings are officially over and GM Bill Smith and his entourage have headed home to the Twin Cities. Most notably, Johan Santana is still wearing a Twins uniform.
Smith had many conversations, lot of players were discussed, and the media made a frenzy of the Santana sweepstakes, but in the end Smith and the Twins were not satisfied with their offers. Does this mean Santana will be a Twin when the 2008 season starts? Not so fast…talks have stalled for now, but expect many more rumors in the next couple weeks.
ESPN’s Buster Olney says the Santana discussions are far from over. Of all the potential suitors, Olney still feels the Red Sox are the favorite to acquire the All-Star pitcher.
The New York Mets have joined the Santana fray along with the Red Sox and many people still believe the New York Yankees are in on the talk although they claim they are done discussing Santana. Reports also claim the Seattle Mariners have explored deals for the Twins’ pitcher while both the Los Angeles Dodgers and Angels seems to be on the outside looking in. Fox Sport’s Dayn Perry breaks down all the possible Santana deals.
Tomorrow marks the start of the annual Winter Meetings for baseball general managers. The four day event held in Nashville, Tennessee this year appears to be full of talk, rumors, and even trades.
Here’s the latest on the Santana trade front. It seems that the two teams that have emerged as probable trade partners for the Twins are hated rivals the New York Yankees and the Boston Red Sox. Two events occurred over the weekend that significantly impact the scope of the Santana talk.
Friday the Yankees announced that they would be willing to trade young pitcher Phil Hughes in any deal for the Twins’ ace. After a week of trying to avoid putting Hughes in any deal for Santana, the Yankees have changed their stance and are now offering a young pitcher who could in the future become the force that Santana is on the mound today.
Sunday the Red Sox stated they would add young outfielder Jacoby Ellsbury in any deal for Santana. This announcement comes after repeatedly calling Ellsbury “untouchable” in any deal. This option would fill the Twins large void left in centerfield by the departure of CF, Torii Hunter. Ellsbury made a quick name for himself across Sox Nation batting .353 with three home runs, 18 RBIs, and nine stolen bases in just 33 games in August and September for the Boston club. Ellsbury also became a hero taking over the starting centerfield position in the playoffs and responding with a terrific World Series performance.
If you’re the Minnesota Twins the question becomes, do I trade my star player, and if so, do I rebuild with a young star pitcher or a young start outfielder? Hughes or Ellsbury?
One thing is for sure, the flurry of rumors surrounding Santana’s name in the last week are close to an end. The Yankees announced today that their offer will soon be off the table. This means the Twins must make their decision soon, like in the next 24 hours soon. By tomorrow night we may know the future outlook of the Minnesota Twins franchise.
If you acquire Hughes you replace Santana in the rotation. Losing a current start for a future star. If you acquire Ellsbury you receive a stud young outfielder capable of replacing the beloved Torii Hunter who would excel batting at the top of an order with Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, Michael Cuddyer, and Delmon Young hitting behind him. BUT… what if the Twins decide that neither of these offers are good enough. What if the Twins instead trade some of their younger prospects and open up their wallet to sign a free agent or two and in doing so will their holes in CF, 3B, and DH. If Liriano comes back as good as he was in 2006 and the rotation is lead by Santana and Liriano, Delmon Young develops into a star while the rest of the lineup bounces back from a subpar year, I would label the Twins as a legitimate World Series contender. BUT… are they still good enough to tackle the defending champion, Boston Red Sox?
Think if the Twins decide to trade Santana to Boston, you now have a team that is not only the favorite to win the 2008 World Series but also a team that is developing into a dynasty for the next three to four years. A 2008 rotation of Santana, Beckett, Dice-K, Schilling, and whoever else feels like pitching (doesn’t really matter) with the Red Sox offense is the closest thing to a sure thing in the baseball world.
So I wish I had a crystal ball to tell you what will happen, but at least it appears that we won’t have to wait long to discover the outcome. As a fan, I’m not even sure yet what move is best for the Twins. I think the thought of having Ellsbury patrolling the outfield is at first glance more appealing to me, but Hughes too is a potential dominator on the pound. And all this being said, I’d be completely happy seeing Santana take the hill on opening day still in a Twins uniform.
Torii Hunter was a tough loss to swallow. The trade of Johan Santana can no longer be discussed as if, but when. But as I said, be prepared.
It appears that Hunter’s signing for mega dollars with the Angels coupled with Santana declining the Twins 4-year $80 million dollar extension was the opening of the floodgates for what will most definitely be a crazy offseason for GM Bill Smith and the Twins.
SANTANA UPDATE
The list of suitors as of today appears to be the Yankees, Mets, Red Sox, Angels, and Dodgers. The Yankees have made the most headlines admitting they have had “preliminary discussions” with the Twins regarding Santana. Mets GM Omar Minaya has also stated they have talked to the Twins and is reported as saying he will “get creative” to try and acquire the All-Star lefty.
Names thrown around in talks with the Yankees include the big three of Yankee pitching prospects Joba Chamberlain, Phil Hughes, and Ian Kennedy as well as Yankee CF Melky Cabrera and 2B Robinson Cano. Any deal would certainly have to include one of the three pitching studs, one of the two Yankee starters, and one or two more minor league prospects. It has been reported that Chamberlain and Cano are nearly untouchable in any deal.
Minaya of the Mets loves to make a splash during the offseason and this season may actually need to after the Mets catastrophic collapse at the end of the season. One intriguing name quietly mentioned in talks about Santana is the Mets’ electric shortstop Jose Reyes. To me, that may be the one player the Twins could acquire that would at least make up for Santana’s presence and appease the fans. Reyes teamed with Mauer and Morneau could form an exciting young trio for years to come.
The Red Sox are reported as “actively pursuing” but seem to be very unwilling to part with young stars Jacoby Ellsbury and Clay Bucholtz. A deal for Santana would seemingly have to include one of the two, but Boston must be mentioned because where the Yankees are the Sox are always close behind.
The Dodgers definitely have the young players to make a deal but may be unwilling to sign Santana to a large extension and the Angels just joined the fray with the intriguing possibility of Santana teaming up with new Angel and former Twin Hunter.
TRADE RUMORS
To keep a long blog short, the rumor mill is swirling and almost every bit of news seems to include the Twins. Names include the obvious Santana, young Twins pitcher Matt Garza, and All-Star stud closer Joe Nathan with names returning to the Twins such as the Red Sox Coco Crisp, the Rays rookie of year runner-up Delmon Young, the Diamondbacks young outfielder Carlos Quentin, and more. It appears that if Santana is (sorry when) he is traded, Nathan will follow him right out the door. Check out the Fox Sports trade rumors to read the MLB hot stove rumors concerning the Twins.
For more news on Santana along with the new Nathan rumors, Star Tribune writer, La Velle E. Neal III writes in his Twins blog.
Also, what’s your opinion? Star Tribune poll asks which team will give the return in a trade for Santana?
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